Transnistria, a small strip of land just over 4,000 square kilometers and with less than 600,000 inhabitants, a quarter of them in the capital Tiraspol, is currently the most dangerous fuse in the scenario of the impending war in Ukraine a year old. The shadowy state, sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, is now seen as a strategic and political resource for Moscow’s troops at this time of stalemate, both to widen the front of offensive against Kiev and to further unnerve the West, and he fears it will spill over into other areas that were once under the influence of the Soviet Union and are now more or less allied or even totally hostile to Russia, which is bogged down just beyond the Donbass. Countries hoping not to end up getting involved include Belarus, a friend of Putin’s, Georgia and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
(from Virgilio News)
Transnistria
The situation of the Moldovan Republic of Pridnestrovie (Transnistria) was already very precarious before the Russian aggression on Ukraine, as it happens in those fragments of the former Soviet Union that are trying to gain space on the maps and that sometimes contain years of low-intensity conflicts but no less gory. In fact, Transnistria is recognized only by small self-proclaimed states and therefore has no international recognition either: Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Artsack (Nagorno-Karabakh). Small pieces of the puzzle that, according to the international interests of the moment, are used also thanks to the disinterest of those who are not geographically connected and who do not see the possible chain effects of increasingly connected scenarios.
Belarus
It is feared that the Lukashenko regime, a “friend” of Putin and always ready to grant his wishes, will overcome internal resistance and engage directly in the conflict with its own troops, taking over the logistics and, most importantly, that Territory covering a large part of the border north of Ukraine.
Georgia
Relations between Tbilisi and Moscow remain the same after the 2008 conflict over Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the related allegations of war crimes. A resentment against Russia that has been smoldering for 15 years, which has gained international attention due to the invasion of Ukraine. Georgia has also become a haven for tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, underscoring dislike of Moscow. However, Putin cannot afford to attract attention on this front even in the southern part of the Black Sea.
The Baltic Republics
Only six million inhabitants for three countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which saw this decade as that of the definitive start. Instead, Ukraine’s aggression has brought back old fears that have not been fully masked by the three republics’ participation in NATO. Add to this the growing weight of the Kaliningrad exclave, bordering Lithuania and Latvia, which has become a magazine for Moscow, which has also stationed missile sites there that threaten the rest of Europe and has reinforced its air and naval fleets.
The repeal of the decree for Transnistria
The Kremlin’s latest move is the repeal of the 2012 decree that declared “solving the Transnistria problem” among the goals based on “respect for Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. This increases the risk of a collision and a strip of land three and a half times the size of Rome could become decisive in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria lies within the borders of Moldova, along the border with southwestern Ukraine. In 1990, the country unilaterally declared its independence with a referendum that received almost 90% of the votes: it was the beginning of the war. The Tiraspol authorities claimed to be the true Moldovan state, and when Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, including the territory of the breakaway republic, it wasn’t long before clashes flared up. The conflict broke out in the early months of 1992: Tiraspol soon defeated Chisinau, with decisive help from the Russians. The ceasefire was brokered by Moscow, which led to the formation of peacekeeping forces with mixed contingents from Moldova, Russia and Transnistria.
The Armistice
The ceasefire concluded in July 1992 not only de facto justified the separation of the two countries, but also kept 1,500 Russian soldiers at the military base in the village of Cobasna. Weapons are stored here that could prove indispensable in a possible attack on Moldova. Or to Ukraine. Despite its proximity to Moscow, the breakaway republic does not border directly on Kremlin-controlled territory, and its relations with Moldova have found equilibrium after three events in particular. First, the defeat of pro-Russian candidate Anatoly Kaminsky in the 2011 elections, who, in agreement with the Kremlin, advocated a path of independence from both Russia and Moldova. Then, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the latter rejected Tiraspol’s request for integration into the Russian Federation.
Finally, the presidential election of Vadim Krasnoselsky, first elected in 2016 and reconfirmed in 2021. These facts partially brought Transnistria closer to Moldova and the EU. Citizens almost all have dual (or triple) citizenship, with the population split almost equally between Ukrainians, Moldovans and Russians, and can cross the border into Moldova. The relationship also remains strong from an economic point of view: about 70% of Tiraspol’s exports go to the EU thanks to the Brussels-Chisinau Agreements (DCFTA). That doesn’t mean Moscow has completely lost its grip on the region: most remittances come from Russia, and the country plays a central role in electricity and gas supply.
But Moscow has never recognized Transnistria’s independence: the Kremlin’s strategy envisaged reintegrating the region into Moldova, granting the breakaway republic special status and maintaining the Russian military presence in the country. A solution that Chisinau obviously rejected. After alerts about a possible Moscow attack on Moldova, sparked by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and confirmed by Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu, recent events increase the risk of a clash.
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in Il Gazzettino