Pierre Servent, specialist in defense and military strategic issues and honorary reserve colonel, was a guest of “8:30 a.m. franceinfo” on Friday 24 February 2023. Relocation of the Russian army, nuclear threat, China’s role, delivery of geopolitical weapons and failures… He answers questions from Jules de Kiss and Julie Marie-Leconte.
Scenario for the next few months: “A shift in Russian military tools”
Pierre Servent favors the scenario of a “collapse of the Russian expeditionary force” for the next few months. The defense expert points to the “dysfunctions” of Putin’s army, with “inexperienced” and “poorly trained” conscripts and reservists and a “not at all decentralized, not adapted to modern warfare” leadership. On the contrary, Ukraine already has “a modern way of leadership”, especially with the “digitization of the battlefield”. Kyiv achieves a “defensive victory”. “I therefore prefer the scenario of a deployment of the military tool,” he concludes.
DIRECT: “We are in a position to end Russian aggression this year,” emphasizes Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a year after invading his country
Observers feared a full-scale offensive after a year of war, but the Russians didn’t even have “the means” to carry it out, according to Pierre Servent. “Moscow has been conducting an offensive on a 700-kilometer front for several months,” explains the specialist. They “advance with an excess of artillery” but with two or three fewer shells fired per day because of “storage difficulties”. Also, 1,200 heavy tanks have been destroyed since the beginning of the war and Moscow does not have “the spare parts” to rebuild its fleet. “All this adds up to 100 meters captured here and there for terrible casualties,” concludes Pierre Servent, who believes Russia “cannot do better”.
Nuclear weapons: “I don’t think it’s in the interests of the generals around Putin”
“I don’t think there is a nuclear threat,” assures Pierre Servent. In his opinion, three arguments rule out the possibility of a Russian nuclear attack. First, the political deadlock: Putin “would immediately lose the support of China, India and the international community.” There is also a military blockade. The nuclear weapon would also kill Russian soldiers and would even have an effect beyond the battlefield. Then the radioactive cloud “does not stop at borders”.
The last reason is psychological: “Putin is a man who does not want to die”, and the nuclear weapon “would take this war to another dimension”. “Again, I don’t think that’s Putin’s goal, and I don’t think it’s in the minds of the generals around Putin,” he concludes.
China’s role: Beijing “is very embarrassed”
China would like to play the role of mediator in this war, says Pierre Servent, but he is “very embarrassed” by Russia’s behavior. First, because Moscow has suffered “numerous failures,” and second, because China “can’t convince Putin to move.” Beijing wants to enter “a negotiation phase”. “China prefers soft power strategies, especially through the economy,” explains Pierre Servent.
Weapon Delivery: Allies’ Response “Sometimes Too Graduated”
Ukraine’s allies are responding with a “gradual response” to the “escalation of terror” in Russia. “We can sometimes regret that this answer is too nuanced,” confides Pierre Servent. In his opinion, it would be necessary to “move more quickly” in the supply of weapons. The westerners promised light tanks and heavy tanks. The first French light armored vehicles should arrive in Ukraine by the end of the week, the government assures, but the delivery of heavy tanks “will take time”, according to Pierre Servent. “We should also start training Ukrainians to fly planes,” the specialist continues, while Westerners have never responded positively to Kiev’s request for fighter jets.
Geopolitics: “It’s a series of strategic failures” for Russia
While wanting to weaken Ukraine, Putin gave Kiev “its great patriotic war”, he “united the Ukrainian people”. The Russian President also hoped to weaken the Europeans, but now sees a “consolidation of the EU”. The United States is also presented as the big winner of this war with the “return of a central position” in Europe. The war also “revived” NATO, which Putin wanted to bury. And even on the side of its Chinese ally, it risks losing in every respect: China “is playing the ally card at the moment because there is an ideological alliance,” explains Pierre Servent, but if Russia loses the war, Beijing knows that it is in will be able to “redeem Russian energy resources at a discount”.
Find the entire “8:30 franceinfo” of Friday 24 February: