Bind doubleUkraine In the Bornor at least open a large military umbrella over Kiev to ensure its security, to persuade Volodymyr Zelenskyy Starting peace talks with Russia by the end of the year: that could be the plan some key members of the Atlantic Alliance are working on. In particular, Germany, France And Great Britain They believe that strengthening NATO-Ukraine ties is a condition that may encourage the Ukrainian government to sit down at the negotiating table.
doubt and helplessness
According to the Wall Street Journal, some of Kiev’s western partners are growing confusion about his ability to retake all his territory that fell into Russian hands. Not only that: the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the French President Emmanuel Macron They invited the Ukrainian leader to resume dialogue with Moscow during the February meeting with Zelenskyy in Paris.
For his part, the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunaklast week presented a draft deal that would give Ukraine much broader access advanced military equipment, guns and ammunition to defend yourself when the war is over. Sunak himself said that the West should send Kiev weapons that would give it a decisive advantage on the battlefield, including fighter jets.
Behind the scenes, however, politicians in Britain, France and Germany have growing doubts about Ukraine’s ability to expel Russians from eastern Ukraine. “We keep repeating that Russia must not win, but what does that mean? If the war lasts long enough at this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable. And no one believes they will be able to retake Crimea,” a senior French official said.
Ukraine and the Peace Talks
These doubts are in sharp contrast to i public comments issued by President Joe Biden and other Western leaders who have asked for more unity to counter Moscow’s offensive. Nor did anyone mention the prospect of Kyiv opening talks with the Kremlin in the near future.
Meanwhile, the leaders of G7 and the United States, after a virtual meeting attended by Zelenskyy on the day marking the sad anniversary of the first year of the war, it was clear: any country that intends to arm Russia against Ukraine or help Vladimir Putin do so, Western Circumventing sanctions will suffer very serious consequences. “We call on third countries and all international actors trying to circumvent the sanctions by providing material support to Russia to stop immediately or they will face very tough sanctions,” Biden and his Canadian allies warned. France, Germany, Italy. Japan and Britain pledge to increase “diplomatic, economic and military support to Ukraine and raise costs for Russia and all those supporting its war effort.”
As already mentioned, Macron and Scholz are said to have told Zelenskyy that Ukraine should start i peace talks with Moscow. At dinner at the Élysée Palace, the French President would have sent a more sober message, telling his guest that even two mortal enemies like France and Germany made peace after World War II. Macron is also said to have told the Ukrainian President that he has been a great war leader so far, but that sooner or later he will have to get into politics and make difficult decisions.
NATO’s offer
A British official would have said instead that another NATO goal is to change the Kremlin’s plans. On this reading, if the West is willing to increase its military aid and commitments to Ukraine over time, that closeness might persuade Moscow that it cannot achieve its military goals.
A possible NATO offer would coincide with the delivery to Kiev military means repel any future Russian attack. It would not include the obligation to station NATO forces on Ukrainian territory, nor would it grant Zelenskyy so-called Article 5 protection, which requires all members to come to the aid of another when attacked and for help to ask.
While the exact terms have not been specified, several of the officials cited by the WSJ said Ukraine could gain access to a wide range of standard NATO weapons systems and integrate its military into the Western defense industry supply chain. Germany has already signaled its willingness to provide concrete assistance on a permanent basis, including air defence, heavy artillery, tanks and ammunition. Britain has spoken about the delivery of fighter jets. In addition, officials say, individual members would continue to provide bilateral military support to Kiev. Will it be enough to reassure the Ukrainian government?