It was a remarkable gesture by Joe Biden. The US President asked his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu to attend a meeting with representatives of the nine Central and Southeast European members of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) in Warsaw on February 21, although her country is not even aspiring to membership.
During a speech, Biden addressed Sandu directly: “I am proud to stand with you and the freedom-loving Moldovan people,” he said. “Give her a round of applause.”
His actions underscore a serious situation. Wedged between Ukraine and north-western Romania, Moldova has long feared Russian aggression, with military threats from Moscow recently taking on an increasingly bellicose tone.
US President Joe Biden speaks in Warsaw on February 21Credit: Michal Dyjuk/AP/Picture Alliance
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin rescinded a 2012 decree in which the Kremlin guaranteed Moldova’s sovereignty. Shortly before, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned that Russia was trying to oust Moldova’s pro-European leadership. Moscow replied on February 23 that Ukraine was actually planning a military intervention in Moldova.
What is all this saber rattling about? Why has tiny Moldova, with a population of just 3.5 million, become a topic of growing interest as the war rages on next door?
Transnistria’s strategic importance
Moldova was the first country after the collapse of the Soviet Union where Russia supported separatists, provoking a bloody war in 1992 that lasted several months. The result was a frozen conflict in which pro-Moscow forces ruled Transnistria, a narrow strip of land in eastern Moldova where many Russian speakers have lived for more than three decades. About 2,000 Russian soldiers are still stationed there, although Moscow pledged to withdraw its troops from the area in 1999. Near the Transnistrian village is also the largest arms depot in Europe with around 20,000 tons of ammunition and military equipment from Cobasna.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Chisinau earlier this monthCredit: Aurel Obreja/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, Transnistria has become strategically more important than ever. From there, Russia could not only open a western front in Ukraine, but also foment internal political chaos in Moldova and trigger a crisis on NATO’s southeastern outer border.
Smuggling routes closed
The separatist forces in Transnistria would probably have an interest in such a scenario. In the past few decades, they financed themselves with massive smuggling operations, which also went through Ukrainian territory. Since the beginning of the war, however, Ukraine has sealed off its border with Transnistria, which is now facing economic collapse.
Sandu and her pro-European government took a cautious stance of solidarity with Ukraine after the start of the war to avoid a confrontation with Moscow. But the EU candidate country has been seeking closer ties with the West since the autumn, when Moscow continued to cut gas supplies to Moldova and backed opposition parties in their attempts to destabilize the domestic political situation.
End of neutrality?
Moldova has therefore started sourcing its energy supply from countries other than Russia at a rapid pace. There is also open discussion about whether the neutrality status enshrined in the constitution should be changed. An upgrade of the practically unarmed Moldovan military, which received its first Piranha armored vehicles from Germany a few weeks ago, is also on the table.
A street in Tiraspol, the “capital” of the Kremlin-backed breakaway region of TransnistriaImage: Goran Stanzl/Pixsell/imago images
Even against the separatists in Transnistria, who probably have dozens of battle tanks and other heavy military equipment in addition to the large stocks of ammunition, the country can currently hardly defend itself. Ukraine has therefore offered military assistance if Moscow and the separatists provoke a conflict. But any suggestion that Ukraine is planning military intervention in Moldova is absurd and at best a pretext for the Kremlin to justify its belligerence. Ukraine can certainly do without using its military resources for a second front.
One thing Russian President Vladimir Putin has achieved in the region is forcing Moldova to resolutely free itself from Moscow’s stranglehold after three decades of ambivalence. The shift has found support that goes beyond symbolic gestures like Biden’s in Warsaw: Romania, colloquially known as Moldova’s “big brother,” already shares language, culture, and a long common history with its tiny neighbor, and is offering ever-growing support achieving economic independence from Russia.
This article originally appeared in German.