Western support for Moldova is growing as the country rejects Russian political interference. Ukraine’s western neighbor may be small but is strategically important in the war and has drawn Russian interest for decades a landmark gesture by Joe Biden. The US President asked his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu to attend a meeting in Warsaw on February with representatives of the nine NATO member countries in central and southeastern Europe that are joining the alliance.
Soldiers in a tank in Transnistria’s “capital” Tiraspol in April 2019
Photo: DW / Deutsche Welle
During a speech, Biden addressed Sandu directly: “I am proud to be with you and the freedomloving Moldovan people,” he said, drawing applause from those in attendance.
But Biden’s action underscores a grave situation. Wedged between Ukraine and northwestern Romania, Moldova has long feared it could become the next victim of Russian aggression, with military threats from Moscow taking on an increasingly belligerent tone.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin reversed a 2012 decree in which the Kremlin guaranteed Moldova’s sovereignty. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia was trying to oust Sandu’s proEuropean leadership. Moscow responded on February 23, saying it was Ukraine planning military intervention in Moldova.
What’s all this noise about? And why is the tiny Republic of Moldova, with a population of just 3.5 million, moving ever closer to the center of the war?
The strategic importance of Transnistria
Moldova was the first country after the collapse of the Soviet Union where Russia supported the separatists, sparking a bloody war in 1992 that lasted several months. The result was a frozen conflict in which proMoscow troops ruled Transnistria, a narrow strip of land in eastern Moldova that has been home to large numbers of Russian speakers for over three decades. Around 2,000 Russian soldiers are still stationed there, although Moscow ensured the withdrawal of its troops from the region in 1999. Also near the Transnistrian village of Cobasna is Europe’s largest arms depot with around 20,000 tons of ammunition and military equipment.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, Transnistria has become strategically more important than ever. Not only could Russia open a western front to attack Ukraine from there, but it could also fuel internal chaos in Moldova and trigger a crisis on NATO’s southeastern outer border.
Blocked smuggling routes
Separatist forces in Transnistria would probably have an interest in such a scenario. In the past few decades, they financed themselves with massive smuggling operations, which also penetrated Ukrainian territory. Since the start of the war, however, Ukraine has closed its border with Transnistria, which is now facing economic collapse.
After the war broke out, Sandu and his proEuropean government initially adopted a cautious stance of solidarity with Ukraine in order to avoid a confrontation with Moscow.
But since the European autumn, the European Union (EU) candidate country has been seeking closer ties with the West after Moscow continued to cut off gas supplies and backed opposition parties in their attempts to destabilize the country’s internal political situation. This led Sandu to conclude that all attempts at reconciliation with Moscow would be in vain.
End of neutrality?
Moldova then began sourcing its energy supplies from countries other than Russia at an accelerated pace.
In addition, the country began to openly discuss whether and how the status of neutrality enshrined in the constitution should and can be changed. A rearmament of the country’s almost defenseless armed forces is also under discussion a few weeks ago Germany delivered the first armored vehicles of the Piranha type to Moldova.
At present, the country could hardly defend itself against the separatists in Transnistria, who, in addition to large stocks of ammunition, probably have dozens of battle tanks and other heavy military equipment. Ukraine has therefore offered military assistance if Moscow and the separatists provoke a conflict. But any suggestion that Ukraine is planning military intervention in Moldova is absurd and at best a pretext for the Kremlin to justify its belligerence. Ukraine can certainly do without using its military resources for a second front.
One thing Putin has achieved in the region, however, is to force Moldova to break decisively out of Moscow’s stranglehold after three decades of ambivalence.
The move garnered support beyond symbolic gestures like Biden’s in Warsaw: Romania, colloquially known as Moldova’s “big brother,” already shares language, culture and a long common history with its tiny neighbor, and has offered growing support for achieving economic independence from Russia.
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