On Sunday, Jake Paul and Tommy Fury will finally step into the ring to face off in a one-on-one showdown. The fight is the third attempt to get the cheeky young men, both known for their achievements outside of boxing rather than their fighting careers, in the ring.
The fight was branded as ‘The Truth’ by promoters and there may not be a more appropriate label as much is revealed about Paul and Fury (Sunday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV).
Despite constant criticism from boxing “traditionalists,” Paul has proven to be a dedicated boxer, using the resources he’s gained from his acting days on Disney Channel and a successful career as an influencer to put on serious training camps . Still, his profile has resulted in a non-traditional roster of opponents because he cannot face the no-name, low-level competition that marks the start of almost every professional boxer’s career.
Paul began his career with a first-round failure of social media influencer AnEsonGib before former NBA star Nate Robinson suffered a vicious viral knockout. He then targeted stars from the mixed martial arts world, knocking out an out-of-shape and unmotivated Ben Askren ahead of a split decision against former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley.
“I always take every fight seriously. I’ve fought UFC champions. Tyron Woodley won the UFC championship while I was on Disney Channel. So when Tommy says he’s been doing this his whole life, it doesn’t mean anything to me,” Paul said at the final press conference. “I’ve always trained harder and harder than any of my opponents. And I want it more. I have more why. I have more purpose. I am Tommy’s ultimate goal. This is the greatest opportunity of his life. He’s never been on one Stage like this He’s never gotten a payday like this He’s got paid peanuts by comparison.
When the first scheduled fight with Fury fell through due to Fury’s injury, Paul hit Woodley again and scored another crushing knockout. Another fight with Fury was canceled in late 2022 when Fury was denied entry to the United States, leading Paul to plan a fight with Hasim Rahman Jr. only for that fight to fall apart as well when Rahman broke the contract weight limit in question asked he had signed for the fight.
“The third time is a spell, and here we are. I’m in super fit condition,” Fury said at the final press conference. “I’m ready to put it all to bed because for the last two and a half years it’s been, ‘When are you going to fight Jake Paul?’ Even mentioning my name in the same sentence is disrespectful to me, a person who has boxed all my life. I’m going to knock this guy out early.”
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The planned bouts with Fury and Rahman were attempts to address one of the most common criticisms of Paul’s career: he had never been in the ring with anyone who had trained as a professional boxer for years.
Paul would fight someone who found success in the boxing ring in his next fight, facing UFC legend Anderson Silva last September. Silva had previously defeated former middleweight boxing champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and despite spending most of his life as a mixed martial artist, he presented an interesting challenge with his length, clumsy style and legitimate skills.
Paul scored a late knockdown from Silva and clinched a decision win, but was again criticized for not being a “real boxer” and for facing a 47-year-old. So Paul returned to the Fury fight one last time, with the fight taking place in Saudi Arabia to avoid ongoing visa issues for the Fury family over their alleged ties to alleged crime boss Daniel Kinahan.
“I’m so excited for this fight because I can finally shut up the critics who said, ‘Fight a professional boxer, fight someone your own age.’ I agree. I haven’t proven that. But that’s why this fight is so big,” Paul said. “That’s why I’m so excited. That’s why I gave this guy multiple chances and paid him so much money to finally show up. And it really seemed like only then did he want to get in the ring when I raised the money. Luckily he’s here now.”
Known both as the younger half-brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury and for his role on the TV show Love Island UK, Fury had a more traditional boxing career than Paul, although that was a better predictor of future boxing success is up for debate.
Fury’s eight professional opponents had a combined 24-176-5 record when they faced Fury, with nearly every one of those opponents functioning as a “professional opponent” with careers revolving around losing to fighters varying as prospects extent to be considered.
In his last fight, Fury faced Daniel Bocianski, who entered the fight with a 10-1 record despite suffering a TKO loss in his previous match. Fury made a decision in what was largely a dull fight in which he scored a knockdown despite neither doing much else during the fight.
And so we finally see these two men, neither a truly accomplished boxer, nor both with resumes that don’t stand up to scrutiny, to finally fight to reveal a scrap of “The Truth.”
Before we move on to a prediction and expert picks for the main event, let’s take a look at the rest of the fight map with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Paul vs Fury card odds
| Jake Paul-170 | Tommy Fury +145 | Cruiserweight (185 pound catchweight) |
| Ilunga Junior Makabu (c) -190 | Badou Jack +160 | WBC cruiserweight title |
| Bad Samreen | Viorel Simon | Light |
| Muhsin Cason | Tarel Yafarov | cruiserweight |
forecast
It’s worth noting that from a competitive standpoint, this is a perfectly reasonable match for both men. Both have proven their ability to handle the level of competition they have previously fought and both have the means and resources to put together comparable fight camps. Between the vicious trash talk and the questioning of both fighters’ true in-ring qualities, there’s a legitimately well-paced match between two young fighters who need exactly the level of opponents they’ll face on Sunday.
Fury probably comes into the fight a bit more technically, but he’s shown throughout his career that he’s not really able to put his foot down against some low-level opponents. His jab is very good and could be Paul’s biggest obstacle. If Fury can establish his jab early and get Paul in the face, that could be enough to earn points on the scorecard.
Meanwhile, Paul has legitimate one-punch knockout power. He’s clearly improved fight after fight, showing a willingness to learn and grow and an underappreciated adaptability during fights. Paul does a good job of processing information and using it to set up big punches, and he also remains committed to throwing punches at the body. However, Paul can get into stretches where he just isn’t throwing enough punches while trying to land a bomb with his right hand.
Say what you will about Paul’s opponent up to this point, but he’s fought a number of men who aren’t afraid to compete on the biggest stage and who came to the ring expecting the fight to be theirs would win. Paul was able to deal with these men and grew in the process. Fury has yet to face an opponent who truly poses a threat to win her fight.
With Paul, the naturally taller man with the more aggressive approach to fights, it feels right to side with him to win the grudge match. It’s also worth noting that Paul completed eight rounds – the length of this fight – twice, while Fury completed a full six rounds only once. Paul’s body punching could play a big part in how this plays out. Choice: Jake Paul TKO5
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