In a way, the war in Ukraine is only a secondary issue in international relations.
Of course this war is terrible. It is one of the main causes of global inflation. It has led to a consolidation of alliances. Etc.
But this war also depends on the development of leadership teams in China, Russia and the United States. The development of politics in these three countries is uncertain. This uncertainty weighs on decisions related to Ukraine.
Warmongering or pacifist China?
In China, Xi Jinping has to introduce the new ministers to his government these days. To what extent will he and his group manage to push through their candidates? Will he be able to counter the warmongering elements in his army?
At the moment, the Chinese newspapers are spreading a rather peaceful vision of both Ukraine and the rest of the world.
The more peaceful the tone, the more Chinese military ambitions seem to have been put on hold in Taiwan, the more popular China is becoming, including for Ukraine.
Conversely, a military hardening of China implies a hardening of alliances against China.
However, it seems that Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine without Chinese military support. That support is far from obvious, despite the significant increase in trade between Russia and China over the past year.
Increasingly difficult for Russia
The war is getting harder for Russia every day. The leader of the Wagner group, Evgueni Prigogine, last Wednesday again denounced the lack of supplies for his troops and the incompetence of Russian officials. He even dared to claim that hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers had died in the conflict.
How long will the Russians remain involved in this war, which they can no longer win alone?
And most importantly, how long will Vladimir Putin’s regime last when it comes time to declare defeat to the people? Who will replace him?
The emergence of a democratic and pro-European Russia in the coming years is not a theoretical question. This is a real possibility that is not beneficial to either China or the United States from a military perspective. But economically everyone would win.
These Russian operations go beyond the war in Ukraine.
Towards an extremist USA?
The United States may have turbulent years ahead. The Republican Party has become so extremist that electing a Republican president like Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis threatens to alienate traditional US allies.
The global influence of the United States would be reduced and the coalition supporting Ukraine would be weakened.
Leaders everywhere must consider these possible political developments in China, Russia and the United States. In a way, the future decides the present.
