The Réseau Express Métropolitain (REM) could suffer financially from the decline in usage of Montreal’s public transport network, experts say.
• Also read: The REM ticket system even more expensive than expected
“Without transport, there may be no gain,” summarizes Jean-Philippe Meloche, professor and director of the University of Montreal’s School of Urban Planning and Architecture of Landscape.
The REM is operated by CDPQ Infra, a subsidiary of Caisse de dépôt et Placement du Québec. She expects an 8% return on her investment.
An agreement was negotiated with Quebec for subsidies based on the number of passengers per kilometer rather than the availability of services. The CDPQ Infra then put everything on traffic.
However, since the pandemic, public transport users have decreased, which has an impact on the finances of transport companies (see other text).
For example, commuter train ridership currently accounts for 50% of 2019 ridership, according to operator Exo.
“The REM was designed with 2019 in mind. Even before commissioning, we ask ourselves whether there isn’t too much public transport for our needs,” explains Mr. Meloche.
Little flexibility
The Caisse de depot has almost no other alternative solution if traffic doesn’t follow. It would be impossible to gamble on the ticket price and it would be difficult to make cuts. Without a driver, the REM causes only low operating costs for the personnel.
“You just hope it doesn’t hurt too much,” says the professor.
The CDPQ Infra is also not sure whether it can count on further subsidies from Quebec.
“The Caisse has been so insistent that it assumes it will [entièrement] the risk that Quebec would not be likely to respond positively to such a request,” says Michel Beaulé, consultant for public transport financing.
safety net
According to him, the CDPQ Infra still has “a safety margin” as it negotiated its subsidies based on potentially low levels of traffic.
The Caisse also relies on a transport monopoly to the South Coast and West Island. “They even forced the transport companies to throw everything on the REM,” adds Mr. Meloche.
“We remain confident in our forecasts, the CDPQ Infra model is anchored in the long term,” reacts Emmanuelle Rouillard-Moreau, spokeswoman for CDPQ Infra.
The REM should welcome its first passengers this spring between the South Shore and downtown Montreal.
Teleworking harms public transport
The main competitor of public transport is no longer the car, but telework, which is increasingly burdening the finances of transport companies, believes an expert.
“Public transport works well in very high-density areas when many people have the same destination. If you don’t have a dynamic city center, you don’t have dynamic public transport,” said Jean-Philippe Meloche.
Fewer and fewer people move about in the metropolis. According to the latest figures from the Société de Transport de Montréal (STM), current subway ridership is just 72% of what it was in 2019.
For the bus it is currently 74%. The decline is also noticeable in local trains.
The STM had to stop its 10-minute bus service. It was also forced to cut spending by $18 million to plug a budget hole now estimated at $60 million.
The situation is similar with other transportation services in the greater Montreal area. The Regional Metropolitan Transport Authority (ARTM) currently runs a $500 million deficit.
“Operators are trying to keep services going until people return. But if people don’t come back, money gets thrown in the trash,” Mr Meloche said.
Transport companies will therefore certainly not be able to avoid realigning the frequencies of their means of transport according to the most popular working days in the office.
According to Jean-Maxime St-Hilaire, spokesman for exo, commuter train traffic to the city center is higher Tuesday through Thursday.
“Not only in Montreal do people no longer use public transport to go downtown, but in all major cities in the world,” the professor recalls.