The researchers are calling for a legally binding global agreement to reduce plastic consumption. Otherwise, annual plastic production in G20 countries could rise to 451 million tonnes.
Plastic consumption in major industrialized and emerging countries (G20) will almost double by the middle of this century if no countermeasures are taken. Existing recycling or plastic reduction programs are not enough, according to a study by Back to Blue, a research group from the Economist Impact think tank and the Nippon Foundation. A legally binding global agreement is needed to reduce plastic consumption.
The United Nations began negotiations on an agreement to tackle plastic pollution in Uruguay in November, with the aim of drafting a legally binding treaty by the end of next year. Up to 175 countries participated in the negotiations. If the talks fail, annual plastic production in G20 countries could reach 451 million tonnes by 2050 at current growth rates, estimates Back to Blue. That would represent an increase of nearly three-quarters compared to 2019.
“Negotiations can be tricky”
“One should not give in to the illusion that contract negotiations will be anything but difficult and treacherous,” the research group said. “The odds of failure – not just no deal, but one that is too weak to reverse the tide of plastic – are significant.” The group calls for a stronger ban on single-use plastic, along with higher production taxes and mandatory regulations that hold companies accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, including recycling and disposal. These measures could limit annual consumption to 325 million tons by 2050, says Back to Blue. However, that would still be a quarter increase from 2019 and corresponds to the amount of 238 million full garbage trucks.
G20 countries that have not yet introduced a national ban on single-use plastic products include Brazil, the United States, Indonesia and Turkey, according to the report. Many single-use plastic products, such as straws and disposable cutlery, have been banned in the EU since July 2021.