Kyiv, Ukraine – “UFOs” have been raining down on Russia in recent days – some dangerously close to the capital Moscow and the hometown of President Vladimir Putin.
Russian officials and media using the term – “unidentified foreign objects” – appear unnerved and accuse Ukraine of drone strikes.
Ukraine on Wednesday denied attacking Russia and suggested attempts at domestic attacks – which Moscow did not accept.
With a pinch of black humor, Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted that there was a growing sense of “panic and breakdown” in Russia, “manifested in increasing domestic attacks by unidentified flying objects on infrastructure sites.”
Throughout the war, Ukrainian leaders and political leaders have routinely denied any responsibility for attacks on Russian soil — often resorting to ridiculing disorganized Russian soldiers.
A Ukrainian military expert said that while Kiev can and should attack Russia’s territory, it does not want to reveal details about its operations there.
“We may in principle deliver blows against the aggressor nation, but we abide by the rule that if and when it happens, [the strikes] should target military sites first,” Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces General Staff, told Al Jazeera.
“But due to many circumstances, we will not explain at this time what and how we will behave on enemy territory,” he said.
Analysts have said Kiev is preparing to launch more attacks with its growing fleet of domestically made unmanned aerial vehicles – and senior pro-Kremlin supporters are concerned.
“I have a few questions,” Tina Kandelaki, acting director of TV network TNT, wrote on Telegram.
“Is this our new reality? How many regions will be [hit] Until the next attack? Does the Department of Defense have a plan to protect our cities? Who can guarantee the safety of our people?” she wrote.
🇺🇦 does not strike at RF territory. 🇺🇦 wages a defensive war to occupy all its territories. This is an axiom.
Panic & disintegration processes are building up in RF, which is reflected in an increase in internal attacks on infrastructure facilities by unidentified flying objects.— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) March 1, 2023
What has happened so far?
On February 26, two explosions rocked an airfield in pro-Putin Belarus, damaging one of Russia’s most prized weapons — one of only nine A-50 planes that can identify the locations of Ukrainian air defense units. Belarusian “guerrilla fighters” claimed responsibility.
At least four drones failed to reach a power plant in the western Russian city of Belgorod, less than 40 km from the border, on Monday evening.
And on Tuesday, an “unidentified flying object” was sighted over St. Petersburg, where Putin was born.
Airspace over Russia’s second-largest city, which lies nearly 1,500 km (930 miles) north of Ukraine, was briefly closed and warplanes took off as part of rehearsal exercises to “train to intercept and identify a conditional target,” a defense official reportedly said.
Previously, however, when asked about the St. Petersburg incident, the Kremlin said little, only that Putin was aware of the events.
On the same day, at least one drone loaded with explosives crashed about 100 km southeast of Moscow, but caused no damage, according to regional governor Andrey Vorobyev.
Hours earlier, “unidentified flying objects” reportedly crashed near an oil refinery and farm in south-west Russia, more than 800 km (500 m) from the nearest Ukrainian military installations in Odessa.
After two blasts that local residents allegedly heard, the refinery – the only one on Russia’s Black Sea coast with a tanker terminal – burst into flames that covered 200 square meters but was quickly extinguished.
Also on Tuesday, another “unmanned aerial vehicle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces” was shot down over the nearby Bryansk region, local officials said.
On Wednesday, Russia said its air defenses repelled a drone attack on occupied Crimea blamed on Ukraine; Moscow has long accused Kiev of hitting the annexed peninsula with its weapons.
In July, they attacked the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, injuring six and forcing Moscow-based authorities to cancel Russian Navy Day celebrations in Crimea.
Further drone strikes in Crimea destroyed military aircraft and a weapons depot in August and damaged naval vessels in October.
In early December, a Ukrainian drone hit a Russian military airfield 650 km (400 miles) east of the border, which is home to strategic bombers that have been used to launch missile attacks on Ukraine.
Most likely, the attacks involved a converted Soviet-designed Tu-141 jet drone manufactured in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
Apparent Ukrainian shelling and drone strikes on Russia’s westernmost regions like Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Orlov have become regular since last May, destroying homes, injuring and even killing civilians.
Several Russians, including a 12-year-old girl and a 70-year-old woman, have been killed in border regions since last May.
Do Ukraine’s apparent attacks on Russia matter?
According to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a historian at the German University of Bremen, most Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian soil have so far been ineffective.
Eight out of 10 Ukrainian drones fail to reach their targets either because Russia has found ways to intercept and destroy them or because they lose connection with their operators, he said.
The drones that do reach the target pose no significant threat, he said.
“However, about once a month, the Ukrainian armed forces manage to organize a really large-scale diversion against Russian aviation or, less rarely, against Russian fuel depots,” he told Al Jazeera.
However, their impact on the general war scene is far less direct than the use of US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, he said.
In recent months, swarms of Russian and Iranian Shaheed drones have inflicted severe damage on Ukrainian soldiers, vital infrastructure and residential areas in Ukraine.
In October, one flew right past this reporter’s apartment window.
Kiev has been feverishly looking for a way to counter the attacks.
This week’s attacks are “more of a warning and a test of what the… [Ukrainian-made] Drones are able to forestall a crime. A signal to Russia not to catalyze missile attacks on Ukraine,” Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.
As Russian forces conserve resources for an offensive that keeps rolling, “Ukraine is showing they have something to respond with,” he said.
On Tuesday, a Tu-141 was most likely used to attack the Tuapse oil refinery.
Russian media claimed that the other attacks were carried out by Russian-made Granat-4 drones, Chinese civilian models loaded with British-made plastic explosives, or the Ukrainian-made UJ-22 unmanned aerial vehicle.
Looking like smaller versions of WWII fighter jets, the UJ-22 was released in 2021. They can carry bombs or jet-propelled anti-tank grenades and fly up to 800 km (500 miles).
Production of brand-new Ukrainian-made drones is not centralized and Russia is unlikely to be able to destroy the maker with targeted attacks, he said.
“The industrial potential will be enough, and the potential is decentralized, there is no large holding or factory that has a monopoly on drones in Ukraine, so Russia’s chances of hitting the industrial plants are very doubtful,” he said.
However, other analysts dismissed the effectiveness of Ukraine’s alleged attacks.
“These minor incidents mean nothing. At least so far,” Pavel Luzin, a defense analyst at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington, DC think tank, told Al Jazeera.