Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst offered his non-binding comment on quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ return for the 2023 season when he addressed the media Tuesday at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. He said all options are on the table until he speaks to Rodgers.
“We want the best for the Green Bay Packers, the best for Aaron,” Gutekunst said. “So we’ll get to that as soon as those talks happen.”
Gutekunst revealed that his only communication with Rodgers since a season-ending meeting almost two months ago has been a few text exchanges.
Rodgers went on a darkness retreat last week originally scheduled for four days to consider whether to retire, return to the Packers or seek a trade. He reiterated that he would not hold the Packers hostage, lengthening his decision during an interview on the Marcus Aubrey Podcast. Ideally, the Packers will know Rodgers’ intentions before March 15, when the free hand begins.
Conventional wisdom suggests that retirement is the least likely option since Rodgers would walk away from a fully guaranteed $59.465 million. He would also be overshadowed if he was in the same Hall of Fame class as Tom Brady, who recently retired.
Rodger’s contract
Rodgers became the NFL’s first $50 million player last March after deciding to stay with the Packers rather than try to force a trade. The contract is widely valued at $150.815 million over three years, although the deal includes two more years below market value (2025 and 2026).
The Packers used one of the NFL’s more complex contract structures with Rodgers. The deal has the rarely used double option bonus structure.
First, Rodgers’ base salary for 2023 is a fully guaranteed $59.465 million. A payment of $58.3 million is required to exercise a $20.9 million option on Rodgers’ contract year 2025, reducing his 2023 base salary to a fully guaranteed $1.165 million. Rodgers is projected to make $59.515 million in 2023. The window to exercise this option is the first day of league year 2023 (March 15) to one day before Green Bay’s first game of the 2023 regular season in September.
From a salary cap perspective, option years are expected to be picked up. Option bonuses are distributed pro rata over the term of a contract (up to a maximum of five years), including option years, beginning with the league year in which the option is exercised. This means the $58.3 million option bonus from 2023 to 2026 will prorate toward the $14.575 million annual salary cap.
Rodgers projects Green Bay’s 2023 salary cap at $31,623,570. His cap consists of a $8.16 million portion of his $40.8 million fully guaranteed 2022 roster bonus, a $14.575 million pro rata option bonus, the $1.165 million reduced base salary, a $50,000 training bonus and a $7,673,570 share of bonuses from previous Packers contracts.
The contract’s second option is 2024. Rodgers has a 2024 base salary of $49.25 million guaranteed at signing for injuries. That $49.25 million will be fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 waiver period (five days after Super Bowl LVIII) next February 16. A payment of $47 million is required to exercise a $15.05 million option on Rodgers’ contract year 2026 to drop his 2024 base salary to a fully guaranteed $2.25 million. The window for exercising this option is the first day of the 2024 league year to one day prior to Green Bay’s first game of the 2024 regular season.
The $47 million currently counts towards the cap prorated at $15,666,666, $15,666,666 and $15,666,668 for 2024, 2025 and 2026 as options are expected to be exercised . Rodgers’ caps for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are listed as $40,701,666, $59,301,666, and $53,451,668, respectively.
trade timing
The optimal time for the Packers to trade Rodgers’ salary cap is after June 1. By waiting until June 2, the bonus proportion of Rodgers’ 2024-2026 contract years would not accelerate to Green Bay’s 2023 salary cap. It would be capped at 2024.
The Packers would release $15.79 million in cap space. There would be $15,833,570 in dead money, a salary cap fee for a player no longer on a team’s roster, from the bonus proportion for Rodgers’ 2023 contract year. In 2024, it would be $24.48 million Give US dollars of dead money from the 2024 to 2026 bonus proportion.
The acquiring team will want a much earlier schedule for a trade so Rodgers has as much time as possible to get used to a new offense and develop chemistry with his wide receivers. Trades for a starting quarterback typically occur prior to the NFL Draft, which is April 27-29 this year.
A trade ahead of the draft will increase Green Bay’s salary cap fees by $8.69 million for Rodgers. There would be $40,313,570 in dead money made up of $32.640 million in roster bonus shares and the $7,673,570 in 2023 bonus shares that already existed prior to Rodgers’ new deal. He would be off the Green Bay books by 2025.
Trade Compensation for Senior Quarterbacks
Since the inception of the current NFL system of free agency in 1993, only a handful of starting quarterbacks who were at least 35 years old have been traded.
The most obvious comparison is to Brett Favre, who preceded Rodgers as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. The Packers traded the 38-year-old Favre to the Jets in August 2008 for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2009 after he changed his mind about retiring. The Packers were selected in the 2009 third round because Favre’s offensive playing time hit the 50% mark during the 2008 season; 70% or more playoff time with the Jets would have earned a second-round pick instead. The maximum return for Green Bay would have been a first-round pick, with Favre’s playing time reaching 80% and the Jets reaching the Super Bowl.
A poison pill was also included. If Favre was subsequently traded to the Vikings (an NFC North rival), the Jets would have had to give the Packers three first-round picks. Favre only played one season with the Jets. After he retired after the 2008 season, the Jets ceded the rights to him by releasing him. This paved the way for Favre to have another change of heart, playing his final two NFL seasons with the Vikings.
The most successful senior quarterback to trade is Joe Montana. The 49ers in April 1993 traded Montana, who was 36, safety David Whitmore and a 1994 third-round pick to the Chiefs for a 1993 first-round pick (18th overall). Montana spent 1992 supporting Steve Young after missing the entire 1991 season with an elbow injury.
The 49ers initially asked for first-, second-, and third-round picks in trades. Montana retired after two seasons with the Chiefs.
Warren Moon was traded from the Oilers (now Titans) to the Vikings in April 1994 at the age of 37 for a fourth-round pick in 1994 and a third-round pick in 1995. The Hall of Famer played three seasons for the Vikings.
The latest senior quarterback data point is Matt Ryan. The Colts acquired a soon-to-be 37-year-old Ryan from the Falcons last March for a 2022 third-round pick. Ryan decided a fresh start after 14 years in Atlanta was best because the Falcons were trying to keep him in a failed pursuit of to replace Deshaun Watson. The Colts are expected to sack Ryan for his poor play last season before the start of league year 2023 on March 15.
Commercial value of Rodgers
Rodgers, 39, is making his career year after year and his contract makes a trade difficult. Both of these factors and Rodgers’ age will impact the trade offset.
According to NBC Sports’ Peter King, the Packers will seek two first-round picks for Rodgers in the event of a trade. The Packers likely had to contend with Rodgers last year when he came back from back-to-back NFL MVP honors to expect that kind of return or more.
Rodgers had an underperforming 2022 season. His 12 interceptions were his most since 2008, when he first became a starter. Rodgers threw 13 total interceptions in the 2019-2021 seasons. His passer rating of 91.1 was the lowest of his career. Rodger’s 217.4 passing yards per game was also a career low.
There were some mitigating factors. Rodgers played on his throwing hand for most of the season through a broken thumb and suffered a rib injury in the second half of the season. Rookie wide receivers have had growing pains while adjusting to the departure of Davante Adams, his favorite target, in a trade to the Raiders.
Nonetheless, Rodgers’ trade value should be higher than other senior quarterbacks. Rodgers is probably better than some of his 2022 stats would suggest, but not quite the player from his recent MVP seasons.
The lower end of Rodgers’ trade value should make it a pick for the second round in 2023, assuming he trades in a timely manner. The high-end would be a 2023 first-round pick with a 2024 conditional second-round pick that could become a first-round pick depending on Rodgers or the team’s performance in 2023 and if he commits to play in 2024.
A team should have assurance from Rodgers that they will play at least two seasons before giving up significant assets to get him. Otherwise, it’s just a very expensive one-year rental at $59.515 million.
Gutekunst raised some eyebrows with his comments to the media about backup quarterback Jordan Love.
“We’re excited about him,” Gutekunst said of Love. “I think I’ve told a lot of people he has to play. This is the next step in its development. He has to play. Jordan has done a great job and worked hard so he does everything we ask.
Gutekunst’s statements could be construed by potential suitors to mean that Green Bay is comfortable moving to Rodgers and may not be making the toughest deal in the trade. It also wouldn’t be surprising if Green Bay Rodgers would rather ced to an AFC team. The reduction in the number of trading partners could also affect the consideration for Green Bay. Though Rodgers doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract, the Packers won’t trade him anywhere he doesn’t want to be.
As general manager, I would happily forego a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 second-round conditional pick for Rodgers. The 2024 election could become a first-round election where Rodgers catches at least 80% of offensive snaps during the regular season and the team wins a wildcard playoff game or advances to the division playoff round. In return, I would like the Packers to have a 2025 second-round conditional pick that will be voided if Rodgers plays a second season for the team in 2024.
Impact of the salary cap on the acquiring team
The Packers would not exercise the 2023 option regardless of when a trade occurs. Purchasing the option before entering into a trade would add $59.465 million to Green Bay’s dead money to bring the total to $99,778,570.
The acquisition team would take over the remainder of Rodgers’ contract, including the right to exercise the 2023 and 2024 options. Technically, Rodgers would be under contract until 2026, but realistically for two years worth $108.815 million unless the two below-market salaries in 2025 and 2026 are adjusted.
The new team would have a $15.79 million cap hit for Rodgers in 2023, made up of the $14.575 million prorated option bonus, his $1.165 million base salary and $50,000 training bonus consists. Rodgers’ caps for 2024, 2025, and 2026 would be $32,541,666, $51,141,166, and $45,291,668, respectively.
The option would certainly be exercised, as Rodgers’ 2023 cap becomes a $59.515 million cap if he doesn’t. A $59.515 million cap on Rodgers isn’t feasible for NFL teams other than the Bears and Falcons.
The acquiring team would have to deal with $43.725 million in dead money related to the 2024-2026 split from the $58.3 million option bonus if Rodgers retired in the 2024 bonus payment . The $60,483,334 would consist of $29.15 million in the 2025 and 2026 bonus portion from the first option and $31,333,334 for the 2025 and 2026 bonus portion from the second option.
Final Thoughts
Green Bay’s best shot at getting a Rodgers ransom would be a quarterback-needy team with a playoff-able defense that believes it may be missing a piece of becoming a championship contender. The Jets best fit this bill. Hiring Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator should make the Jets an attractive target for Rodgers. Hackett was the Rodgers offensive coordinator at Green Bay for three years (2019-2021) before becoming the Broncos head coach in January 2022. Owner Woody Johnson’s intervention could be the perfect storm for the Packers to earn the Jets’ 2023 first-round pick (13th overall), a 2024 conditional second-round pick leading to a first-round pick could become, as well as additional draft capital and/or a few players.