Sao Paulo
A year after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian support for the invasion of the neighboring country, for the conditions of the Kremlin’s conduct of the conflict and for President Vladimir Putin is growing.
That’s according to new research from the Levada Center, Russia’s main independent polling agency, which the government has branded a “foreign agent,” making it more than unexpected.
According to the new round, in which 1,600 people across the country were heard in person on February 2128, with a margin of error of plus or minus two points, 77% of Russians approve of the actions of the armed forces in Ukraine 48% “approve definitely”, 29% “probably”.
In December it was 71%, the lowest level since the beginning of the war. Now 17% oppose the war, 10% “probably” and 7% “definitely”. The greatest opposition to the conflict to date came right after it began, when 23% said they opposed the invasion.
The strata breakdown supports some perceptions of Russian society observers: the war has greater support among those who consume state television as their main source of information (86%), among the elderly (86% in the group above 55%), who, who approve of Putin (86%) and men (83%). Conversely, support falls among those who disapprove of the President (32%), younger people (57% of 1824 year olds) and women (73%).
The poll also shows that support for continuing the war is gaining ground. In October last year, 57% preferred peace talks and 36% preferred conflict. It is now 50% for peace and 43% for what the Kremlin calls a “military special operation.”
The generation gap that divided families is also accentuated here. Among the oldest, 52% preferred war, while 61% of the youngest wanted an end to hostilities.
So far, however, the country has been united in the Kremlin’s discourse on how this would happen. The absolute majority of ears does not accept terms favorable to Ukraine for the end of the war, starting with Russia’s withdrawal from the four regions it illegally annexed in September.
They do not accept the evacuation of the two selfproclaimed People’s Republics of Donbass (Eastern Ukraine), Donetsk and Lugansk, 71%. Already 67% oppose the departure from Zaporizia and Kherson to the south. The Russians do not fully control these areas and are concentrating on intense fighting in Donetsk in an attempt to capture what may be 50% of territory in Kiev’s hands.
Finally, Ukraine’s entry into NATO (the western military alliance), one of Putin’s alleged reasons for starting the war, is rejected by 76% as something to be traded for peace. Agree that prisoner exchange is acceptable 85% and 51% cited the ceasefire as a basis for ending the conflict.
The work of Putin, who came to power as prime minister in August 1999 and has never left him after four terms as president and one more interlude as prime minister, has a high approval rating: 83%, returning to wartime levels was started after slipping to a whopping 77% in September.
In the historic series of levadas that began in 2010, the lowest presidential approval rating was 59% in September 2020, at the height of the Covid19 pandemic, which had an erratic Kremlin response. It peaked the year after the annexation of Crimea with 89% in June 2015.
The figures all differ slightly, but not significantly, from those of less reliable government institutions. This phenomenon led outside observers to question the reliability of the polls and the impact of an environment fraught with political repression, in addition to respondents’ refusal to tell the truth.
Levada Research Director Denis Volkov dismisses these arguments. According to him, approval of Putin and his policies has followed a measurable dynamic over the years, such as citizens’ expectations of the economy. “It’s no different now,” he said, noting that the initial shock of the war and subsequent Western sanctions appear to have worn off.
“In each poll, only 2 to 7 respondents refuse to answer on Ukraine, which is irrelevant,” he wrote in a text defending the polls. Regarding repression, he said that it was installed in the country before the war.
Thus, data such as the mass consumption of Kremlin propaganda on TV, a movement that dates back to the 2000s, the sweetening of everyday life in big cities, as well as generational disagreements seem more about the impact of the war against the Russians. .