Clockwise from top left: Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Saddness, Elvis, Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Tar
Paramount Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection; Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection; Warner Bros. / courtesy of the Everett Collection; Orion Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection; Merie Weismiller Wallace / © Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection; Walt Disney Studios Movies / Courtesy Everett Collection; Jonathan Hession / © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy The Everett Collection; Reiner Bajo /© Netflix /Courtesy Everett Collection; A24 / Courtesy of the Everett Collection; Focus Features / Courtesy Everett Collection
PLEASE NOTE: This prediction, compiled by ‘s Executive Editor of Awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences behavior, not his personal preferences. He arrives at this ranking by drawing on consultations with constituents and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, pre-Oscar awards results, and the history of the Oscars itself.
best picture
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything, everywhere at once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert & Jonathan Wang)
2. Quiet on the Western Front (Malte Grunert)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison & Christopher McQuarrie) – Podcast (Bruckheimer)
4. Tar (Todd Field, Scott Lambert & Alexandra Milchan)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin & Martin McDonagh) – Podcast post coming soon (McDonagh)
6. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick & Schuyler Weiss)
7. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast (Spielberg)
8. Triangle of Sadness (Philppe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Jon Landau)
10. Women Speak (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner & Frances McDormand)
Best Director
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere at once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – Podcast
3. Todd Field (Tar)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Podcast post coming soon
5. Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Best actor
Estimated order of completion
1. Austin Butler (Elvis) – Podcast post coming soon
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) – Podcast post coming soon
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Podcast
4. Bill Nighy (alive)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Best Actress
Estimated order of completion
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár) – Podcasts 1 and 2
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast
3. Andrea Riseborough (to Leslie)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) – Podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Best supporting actor
Estimated order of completion
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast
2. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
The best supporting actress
Estimated order of completion
1. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere at Once)
2. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – Podcast
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast
5. Hong Chau (The Whale)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
2. Women Talk (Sarah Polley)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Honor Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
5. Life (Kazuo Ishiguro) – Podcast
Best Original Screenplay
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything everywhere at once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees by Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) – podcast posting coming soon
3. Tár (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast (Spielberg)
5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
Best Animated Feature
Estimated order of completion
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) – Podcasts 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. Blushing (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford & Mark Swift)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan & Paul Mezey)
5. The Sea Monster (Jed Schlanger & Chris Williams)
Best Documentary
Estimated order of completion
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae & Daniel Roher)
2. Fire of Love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa & Ina Fichman)
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons & Laura Poitras)
4. Anything That Breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann & Shaunak Sen)
5. A House of Splinters (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)
Best International Feature
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – Edward Berger
2. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
3rd EO (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) – Santiago Miter
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) – Colm Bairéad
Best cinematography
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Tar (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Fistful of Truths (Darius Khondji)
Best Costume Design
Estimated order of completion
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) – Podcast
3. Everything, everywhere at once (Shirley Kurata)
4. Babylon (Maria Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Best film editing
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything everywhere at once (Paul Rogers)
2. Elvis (Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel EG Nielsen)
5. Tar (Monika Willi)
Best makeup and hair styling
Estimated order of completion
1. The Whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin & Adrien Morot)
2. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier & Aldo Signoretti)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Linda Eisenhamerová & Heike Merker)
4. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine & Mike Marino)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)
Best Original Score
Estimated order of completion
1. Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Everything everywhere at once (Son Lux)
4. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Best Original Song
Estimated order of completion
1. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) – BloodPop & Lady Gaga – Podcasts 1 and 2 (Gaga)
2. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) – Chandrabose & MM Keeravaani
3. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Goransson, Rihanna & Tems
4. “This Is a Life” – David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski – Podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (Say It Like a Woman) – Diane Warren – Podcasts 1, 2 and 3
Best Production Design
Estimated order of completion
1. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin & Karen Murphy)
2. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florencia Martin)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole & Ben Procter)
best sound
Estimated order of completion
1. Rest on the Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
2. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson & Wayne Pashley)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor & Mark Weingarten)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson & Mark Weingarten)
Best visual effects
Estimated order of completion
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri & Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson & Ryan Tudhope)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller & Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick & Chris White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon & Dominic Tuohy)
Best Animated Short Film
Estimated order of completion
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Matthew Freud & Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Wrong And I Believe I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My Year of Cocks (Sara Gunnarsdóttir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis & Wendy Tilby)
5. Ice Cream Vendor (Bruno Caetano & Joao Gonzalez)
Best Documentary
Estimated order of completion
1. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
2. Stranger at the Gate (Conall Jones & Joshua Seftel)
3. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue & Beth Levison)
4. Haulout (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)
5. How do you measure a year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
Best Live Action Short Film
Estimated order of completion
1. An Irish Farewell (Tom Berkely & Ross White)
2. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. Le Pupille (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — Podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
4. Night drive (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalu (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)