Estonians go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, an election heavily overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ pro-European, pro-Kyiv government is facing a challenge from a far-right party that wants to stop the arrival of Ukrainian refugees and slow the country’s green energy transition.
What’s at stake?
None of the nine parties up for election is expected to secure an outright majority, meaning a coalition will need to be formed.
The current coalition government, led by Kallas’ Reform Party, has vehemently backed EU sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine and backed western arms sales to Kiev. Kallas, the first woman to head the Estonian government, has also called for a strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank against threats from Russia, which borders Estonia.
However, it is not certain that Kallas, who opinion polls see as the favorite to lead the next government, will be able to maintain her alliance with the Social Democrats and the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland) party.
A leading electoral contender is the far-right nationalist EKRE party, which ranks second in opinion polls.
The EKRE, headed by Martin Helme, has pledged not to take in any more Ukrainian refugees.
While Helme said he would continue to support Kiev in its defense against the Russian attack, Helme accused Kallas of undermining Estonia’s defenses by supplying arms to Ukraine.
EKRE has also pledged to cut energy costs by resisting the green energy transition amid a livelihood crisis caused by one of the highest inflation rates in the EU – 18.6% yoy in January.
Kallas himself voted online ahead of Sunday’s electionCredit: Pavel Golovkin/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
What possible coalitions are there?
Despite EKRE’s good performance in opinion polls, analysts believe the party’s entry into government is unlikely, especially since Kallas has ruled it out as a coalition partner.
Any future coalition will depend in part on the electoral results of the center-left, which promises more investment in infrastructure and affordable housing, and the pro-business Estonia 200 party.
Analysts say a coalition between Reform, Estonia 200 and the centre-left, pro-EU Social Democrats is possible, as is one between Reform, the center and Isamaa.
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online voting
The elections are the ninth since Estonia, now a member of the EU and NATO, gained independence from Soviet occupation in 1991.
About 965,000 people are eligible to cast their ballots for the 101 seats in the Riigikogu legislature.
A third of eligible voters cast their ballots online in the days leading up to Sunday, including Kallas, with Estonia becoming the first country in Europe to introduce online voting in 2005. Another 15% of voters sent in their ballots in advance.
Polling stations close at 8 p.m. local time (1800 GMT/UTC), with most constituencies expected to report their results by midnight.
tj/fb (AP, Portal, AFP, dpa)