Every year, with absolutely zero uncertainty, we’re reminded that the NFL is ~a quarterback league~. This is a non-negotiable hiring. You have or you don’t have. And even if you have, sometimes it’s not enough. Just ask the Raiders, who handed Derek Carr a free hand less than a year after a newly signed contract extension. Teams routinely pay outrageous prices in terms of current and future draft funds to rank up and take a flyer for an unknown commodity in the draft.
And yet, when Lamar Jackson became available to every NFL team via Baltimore and placed the nonexclusive franchise tag on their starting quarterback…isn’t a single NFL team interested?
We’re talking about a former MVP, one of the most electrifying athletes in all of pro sports, a legitimate franchise quarterback who turned 26 in January.
We’ve never seen an instance of a quarterback dangling like that for all the quarterback-needy NFL to come after him. This is a cutthroat league where margins are thin and a quarterback separates you not only in the ability to watch a Super Bowl but in the interest of fans, both local and national.
The Carolina Panthers are largely irrelevant at the national level. The Panthers with Lamar Freaking Jackson? This is a team that gets multiple primetime games each year and is the immediate favorite to win the NFC South. Exactly the same could be done for the Atlanta Falcons. And, my goodness, Lamar recreating Vick 2.0 in some red, white, and black plains would be amazing.
We’re denied that aesthetic, however, because Atlanta, much like Carolina — along with every other quarterback-needy team in the NFL — just isn’t interested in even pursuing Lamar. They won’t even check in and see what Lamar might be trying to get him.
Complete disinterest in Lamar is even wilder than Lamar being opened up to league-wide negotiations. And the reason seems painfully obvious: NFL owners are adamant about quashing the idea of quarterbacks getting fully guaranteed contracts.
Lamar’s predicament arose when the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, giving him a guaranteed $230 million deal, despite Watson facing double-digit off-field sexual misconduct allegations. As our own Jason LaCanfora reported in March 2022, the deal Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam Watson gave drew the ire of virtually every other NFL owner.
The Browns weren’t really into Watson until Haslam was willing to break the line – and set precedent – and give Watson a deal no one else in the league was willing to offer.
Watson hadn’t played football in over a year, needed multiple high draft picks, wanted a Monster contract extension and was struggling with unprecedented off-field problems. Still, the Browns were after him, as were the Falcons and Panthers, according to numerous reports.
Lamar is in exactly the same place, only he’s been more productive, has a better injury history (Watson has multiple cruciate ligament tears dating back to college), has an MVP, and there’s no negotiation with the Ravens for compensation if an offer sheet is agreed .
Despite this, no fewer than five NFL teams have very publicly expressed their lack of interest in Jackson with incredible rapidity. After the Ravens announced on Twitter at 3:02 p.m. ET Tuesday that they would be tagging Lamar, we received a flood of reports from various reporters.
The Falcons — a consistent best landing spot for Lamar — let ESPN’s Dianni Russini know they were headed for Lamar at 3:16 p.m. ET.
I can’t even be quick to choose what I want for lunch, let alone make a franchise-changing decision. Jackson would GO on Arthur Smith’s offense and make the Falcons relevant right away, but sure. The Raiders quickly followed, saying they were “unlikely” to go after Jackson.
Acknowledging that Mark Davis probably doesn’t have the liquidity to actually pay Jackson (more on that in a moment) and ignoring what his father would have done (traded for Jackson in a bloody heartbeat), I’d like to point out the only quarterback Chase Garbers currently stands on the Raiders list. I guess at least 50% of the people reading this can’t be 100% sure if I made that name up or not.
At 4:30 p.m. ET, the Panthers let it be known that they probably weren’t in the Lamar deal either.
David Tepper was turned down multiple times when trying to trade for a franchise quarterback, including Watson, Matthew Stafford and — not even jokingly — Carson Wentz. Lamar Jackson is on the block and he doesn’t even want to check what it takes to acquire him? Safe again.
The Dolphins also spoke up, citing their satisfaction with Tua Tagovailoa’s QB position.
This would be reasonable if it weren’t for 1) medical concerns about Tua’s future and 2) an ongoing buzz around Tom Brady and the dolphins constantly lingering.
Even Danny’s Snyder’s Washington Commanders don’t want to get involved in the Lamar deal.
I’ve covered the NFL in some capacity for more than 15 years. I’ve seen a lot of weird stuff, even if you just want to narrow it down to Tag Day. Once the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil for sending a fax to the league office. I’ve never seen an actual, legitimate franchise quarterback become available and more than five NFL teams *immediately* express their disinterest in him.
Either we’re all grossly underestimating the concerns surrounding Lamar, or something else is afoot. What are these concerns? Some of them are quite usable, but I mostly play Devil’s Avocado to showcase both sides.
draft picks
Giving up multiple first-round picks isn’t something NFL teams want to do. Two first-round picks for each NFL player is a pretty steep price to pay, but it’s absolutely in line with what other franchise quarterbacks are aiming for in the trade market lately. The Rams and Broncos gave up similar moves for Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, respectively. And that’s not two firsts for a cost-controlled player you’d get in the draft.
The contract
This is the big one. Lamar appears to want a fully guaranteed deal. The Ravens chose to let the market tell them what their worth was, and the market magically dried up! We’ll never know what Lamar is willing to take because teams don’t even issue offer sheets. A fully guaranteed deal would require every dollar in escrow to be matched (an outdated rule from a time when not every NFL owner had hundreds of millions of dollars), which is something even the richest NFL owner doesn’t bother to grapple with want (again, more on that in a moment). When we talk about maximum guarantees, that’s a potential problem with the salary cap, even though the salary cap seems more and more clearly a myth.
lack of an agent
Lamar represents himself. There’s nothing wrong with that and I applaud his entrepreneurial spirit. But not having an agent makes it harder to close a deal. Agents are encouraged – both in terms of their reputation and their finances – to close a deal. They have already worked with most of these NFL teams and can persuade their clients to do certain deals. Lamar is steadfast here. good for him It makes things harder for NFL teams in negotiations.
scheme/fit
Again, I’m only addressing possible arguments, so don’t yell at me about this one. It’s perfectly reasonable that some NFL coaches, front offices or owners would have concerns about framing an offense around Lamar’s special skills. I would tell anyone who claims they are a coward and that a worthwhile trainer could figure out how to make Lamar work. Additionally, if a team doesn’t think they’re a quarterback away and in the midst of a rebuild, there’s a reasonable argument for not giving up capital. Unfortunately, all of these teams have been aggressively chasing quarterbacks lately. What has changed?!
injuries
Lamar has only played 12 games in each of the past two years. He plays a style of football that can rightly be described as a long-term health hazard due to his running skills. He’s not built like Cam Newton or Josh Allen. If you wanted to tell yourself a story about worrying about long-term health, you could. Maybe not a good story, but you could lie to yourself.
So…
Which seems more likely: NFL owners want Watson’s deal with the Browns to quickly become an outlier rather than the norm. The Bengals and Chargers face monster extensions for Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, respectively. These two owners are neither Tepper nor a Wal-Mart heir. The liquidity to put $250 million (a few millies more or less) in escrow over five years isn’t easy, even for someone with $1 billion.
The franchise tag was designed by NFL owners to prevent key players from becoming available to the rest of the league. Quarterbacks specifically, and especially junior quarterbacks at the end of their contracts. Restricting player movement was a hallmark of NFL dynasties for years, until Reggie White rescinded the free hand. You don’t see a player of this caliber on the market. You just don’t!
The idea of Baltimore dangling Lamar to the entire league and nobody having any interest in it is just insane. A 26-year-old former MVP simply will NOT become available in the NFL without interest from other teams.
And not just no interest, but a very quick disinterest from a multitude of teams that have aggressively pursued quarterback solutions for the last 3-5 years.
The probability of anything happening here is practically zero percent. Good luck proving that a bunch of NFL owners don’t want to acquire Lamar Jackson just to quash a rogue contract given to another player in a similar situation just a year ago. But that reality makes a lot more sense than the idea that no one wants to even think about taking on a 26-year-old former MVP.