Passengers, some of whom are not wearing face masks after Covid-19 public transport rules ended, are seated on March 19.
Patrick T Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
Airlines that once touted global travel destinations, promised adventure, luxury, or both, now rely on a simpler selling point: reliability.
Flight delays and cancellations increased in multiple places last year, collectively costing US airlines more than $100 million and disrupting the travel plans of hundreds of thousands of customers. Even some crews have had to sleep at airports, a rare last resort for an industry used to housing thousands of pilots and flight attendants on the street every day.
With the arrival of the peak travel season, the industry risks a repeat of this headache and airlines are hoping to forestall the problems. Their efforts include massive hiring, better technology for employees and customers, earlier planning for storms, and for some airlines conservative planning or slashing their spring and summer schedules altogether.
One of the biggest challenges for airlines in what is shaping up to be a monster travel season is how to deal with routine disruptions such as inclement weather, whether through delays or full cancellations, before passengers arrive at the airport. When planes are full, airlines have fewer opportunities to put passengers on alternate flights and have a musical chair game in the sky — with luggage.
Airlines are not charging passengers change fees, and major network airlines have eliminated standard economy class date change fees to boost bookings during the coronavirus pandemic. But travelers could pay the price if they’re forced to buy a new last-minute ticket with another airline to make it to a big event like a wedding or to meet other travel plans.
It is important to prevent cancellations.
“When we’re reliable, the seat is a lot more comfortable, the food tastes a lot better, the service we offer is a lot more accommodating,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said April 12 at a city hall. “People really need to feel in control of their itineraries.”
American has spent the last three years developing its Hub Efficiency Analytics tool, which was unveiled last month. The tool, called HEAT, is helping the airline delay more flights ahead of bad-weather thunderstorms and avoid later cancellations, City Hall said. Among other things, it analyzes data such as crew availability and passenger connections.
“The goal is to prevent the cancellations in the first place so that we don’t have to make new placements given the heavy loads we anticipate this summer,” Maya Leibman, American’s chief information officer, said earlier in an April earnings call.
Airlines like Spirit Airlines and JetBlue Airways have already scaled back spring and summer flights. JetBlue, for example, has trimmed its plan to expand flying by up to 15% this year from 2019 levels, and is now planning a schedule no more than 5% higher than it was three years ago as it attempts to scale up operations to stabilize while facing staffing shortages, including from pilot attrition.
According to Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg, plan cuts for June are deeper for low-cost and ultra-low-cost airlines than for network carriers due to staff shortages and high fuel costs.
These airlines “are likely to be disproportionately affected by this effect as low-fare traffic accounts for a larger proportion of their revenue base than for the major airlines,” he wrote in an April 11 statement.
staffing solutions
American plans to fly up to 94% of its 2019 flight schedule in the second quarter, while United Airlines projects 87% and Delta Air Lines 84% compared to three years ago. Large airlines’ growth potential is constrained by pilot shortages, particularly for smaller regional airlines serving their hubs.
American said it has hired 12,000 employees since last summer and plans to hire about 20,000 new employees overall this year. United hired 6,000 people this year, and Delta has hired 15,000 since early 2021, in part to replace the more than 17,000 employees the airline accepted on takeover bids in the depths of the pandemic.
The $54 billion in taxpayer money airlines received to pay employees during the pandemic prevented layoffs but allowed takeovers.
American, Delta, and United all say they’re poised to handle the surge in demand.
“We’ve made so many strides with customers and really built the United brand during the pandemic,” United CEO Scott Kirby said on the Chicago carrier’s quarterly conference call in April. “We’re not willing to sacrifice that customer goodwill for the possibility of short-term gains.”
United has spent years developing tools that allow passengers to self-rebook and avoid long queues at airports – technology that saves time and labor costs. In 2019, it launched ConnectionSaver, which can help hold a plane for passenger connection, and Agent-on-Demand, a video chat platform for customer service.
Tricky Delays
Airlines are also having to contend with frequent disruptions from inclement weather, like the ones felt at busy Florida airports in April.
Thunderstorms have triggered cascades of thousands of cancellations and delays over the past year, disruptions made worse by airlines scheduling too many flights in relation to their staffing levels.
The Federal Aviation Administration is calling airlines to a two-day meeting in Florida earlier this month to discuss congested airspace over the state, one of the tourism hotspots during the pandemic, CNBC reported. Flight capacity to some of the state’s busiest airports has already exceeded what was flown in 2019, while space launches and general aviation are increasing, the FAA said.
Last week, some executives, including at JetBlue and Frontier Airlines, blamed some of the blame on staff shortages at a key Florida air traffic control center.
The Government Accountability Office is investigating recent disruptions at airlines, a spokesman told CNBC.
Thunderstorms are particularly difficult for airlines because they are less predictable than larger systems like hurricanes or winter storms, allowing airlines to cancel flights, sometimes days in advance, to allow crews to resume operations.
Cutting flights as early as possible “will probably make it smoother for the passenger, but something is happening. It’s summer,” said Adam Thompson, founder of consultancy Lagniappe Aviation, and has worked in the industry for more than two decades. “The weather is unpredictable. Every time someone says, ‘This is the worst summer I’ve ever had,’ I say, ‘Give it a year.’
Angry passengers, accustomed to the conveniences of modern life where groceries, clothes and rides arrive promptly at the door, wait hours for customer service help and only grow more frustrated.
“We’re used to, ‘Hey, Amazon will bring my package tomorrow. Why can’t you be there for a dime?” said Savanthi Syth, Airline Analyst at Raymond James. “[Airlines] have to step up and meet those expectations.”
How passengers can deal with it
A little extra preparation can help avoid headaches this season.
Here are some tips:
1. Book flights that depart early in the day.
This gives you a greater chance of being rebooked and avoids the effects of delay if something goes wrong. “As a lifelong airline guy, I always tell people when they travel, don’t book the last flight of the night. They need something for a pillow,” Thompson said.
2. Check the weather outside your location.
Airlines operate complex networks and the weather at your departure location is not necessarily the weather at your destination. Many airline apps will show you where your arriving plane is coming from. Also check the weather of this airport.
3. Choose a busier day if you are flexible.
Thompson said he should look at an airline’s flight schedule to see how many flights the airline operates to its destination that day. Airlines generally fly less on Saturdays. That could mean less headroom if you’re facing glitches. Thursdays and Fridays traditionally have bigger schedules, but airports are often busier, he added.
4. Knowing what is due to you.
According to the US Department of Transportation, if the airline cancels or significantly delays your flight, you are entitled to a refund. Airlines might offer you a voucher for future travel, but passengers can insist on a refund if they prefer.
Keep in mind that low-cost airlines like Southwest do not have interline agreements with other airlines that allow them to book travelers with a competitor. While airlines use these agreements sparingly, if an airline doesn’t have one, it could reduce your chances of getting an alternate flight.
5. Be kind.
Gate and reservation agents, including many new hires, are also under stress. Keeping calm is more effective all around. Simply put, Thompson said, don’t be an idiot.