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China’s successful brokering of détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia on Friday put the United States in the awkward position of applauding a key Middle East deal by its main geopolitical rival.
“We support all efforts to de-escalate tensions there,” White House spokesman John Kirby said of the agreement, which for the first time in seven years resumes diplomatic ties between the arch-enemies and reopens their respective embassies.
The deal is the result of talks that began Monday as part of an initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at establishing “good neighborly relations” between Tehran and Riyadh, the three countries said in a joint statement. But the signing of the deal in Beijing — which the Biden administration sees as its No. 1 geostrategic threat — represents Xi’s latest effort to stake out a larger political presence in the Middle East, where the United States has been the dominant outside power brokerage deal since the end of the Cold War, waging war and wielding influence in an oil-rich region vital to the world’s energy security.
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Last month, China hosted Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as the two nations cemented a “strategic cooperation treaty.” In December, Xi made a state visit to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia, whose long-standing partnership with Washington has deteriorated since the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by staffers of the kingdom’s crown prince, welcomed Beijing’s involvement in a public press event with a three-way China handshake top diplomats Wang Yi; Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani; and Saudi Arabia’s National Security Advisor Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban.
America’s Arab allies in Saudi Arabia and the wider Persian Gulf often lament the criticism they receive from Washington over human rights violations and a lack of political freedoms and elections – complaints they don’t receive from Beijing. Some observers saw China’s inclusion in the deal as an open snub.
“Obviously, the decision to give the Chinese a major public relations win — a photo op designed to showcase China’s newfound importance in the region — is notable,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution think tank. “In that sense, it appears to be another Saudi slap in the face to the Biden administration.”
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On the face of it, the deal achieves priorities the United States has long sought as tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have threatened regional stability and fueled catastrophic conflicts from Syria to Yemen.
“We think it’s in our own interest,” Kirby said, expressing his hope it would bring an end to the war in Yemen, which was waging a Saudi-led coalition backed by American jets against the Iranian-backed Houthi fighters .
For years the United Nations described the conflict there as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, but the country has enjoyed a rare respite from the fighting since April, when a UN-sponsored ceasefire went into effect. Although the ceasefire expired in October, peace has largely held and talks between the Houthis and the Saudis have resumed.
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Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked and burned by Iranian protesters angered by the kingdom’s execution of a prominent Shia cleric, Sheikh Nimr Baqr al-Nimr. The cleric had become a leading figure in protests in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, a Shiite-majority region in the Sunni-majority nation.
A senior government official who was briefed on the Tehran-Riyadh talks and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions, said the United States had been kept informed of the negotiations from the start, adding, that the Saudis had made it clear to US officials that they were interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Iran.
But the Saudis also made it clear that they were unwilling to finalize such a deal without strong assurances from the Iranians that attacks against them would cease and that they would limit military support to the Houthis, the official said.
“Riyadh is trying to contain Iran’s risk,” said Jonathan Lord, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
US officials remain uncertain whether the Iranians will ultimately will honor that commitment, which means the entire agreement could fall through. The deal, by its very nature, does not provide for an immediate resumption of diplomatic relations, instead stipulating that the countries will do so in two months, with several elements still to be worked out.
Oman also played a significant role in the breakthrough, the senior administration official said, prompting in part President Biden to call Oman’s Sultan this week.
The United States is a major supplier of arms to Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missile defense batteries. But Lord said allowing China to negotiate the diplomatic deal would not jeopardize that relationship. US Central Command, which has thousands of US troops stationed in the Kingdom and elsewhere in the Middle East, “will continue to work closely with its regional partners to advance a regional security architecture,” he said. “This agreement will not stand in the way of that.”
Although some in Washington have expressed concern about Beijing’s involvement in the deal, it is unclear whether the Biden administration would have been able to broker it even if it had wanted to. Tehran and Washington are barely speaking after the Trump administration decided to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and assassinate the country’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani.
“Anything that lowers the temperature between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reduces the possibility of conflict is a good thing,” said Matt Duss, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It’s also a potentially encouraging sign that countries in the region can pursue such initiatives without needing many extras and guarantees from the US.”
While weakening China’s influence in the Middle East and other parts of the world remains a priority for the Biden administration, it is “two minds” on the latest deal, said Jon Alterman, a Middle East scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies .
“She wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their own security,” he said, “but she doesn’t want Saudi Arabia to go freelance and undermine US security strategies.”