President Gabriel Boric during his government’s second change of cabinet in La Moneda, Santiago Cristobal Olivares (Bloomberg)
The triumphant 58% of the vote and the zeal of his supporters seemed to herald that President Gabriel Boric would find widespread support at least in his first year in office – the “honeymoon” that has become so elusive for so many leaders in the region -. But none of that happened. On the other hand. Not only did his approval ratings fall below their disapproval level within months of taking office, but he also deteriorated rapidly before he was a year old.
This undoubtedly explains the complex economic and political scenario that it has inherited. But also that his base and support for his program were weaker than the triumphant second-round results showed, and that the government did not (or could not?) know how to adjust in time.
Boric’s original program was built by Apruebo Dignidad, the coalition of the Broad Front parties (including the President’s Party) and the Communist Party. The proposal – refoundational and from the left – quickly clashed with a reality polls have systematically revealed: in Chile, those who declare themselves to be left make up no more than 20% of the population. To get the majority and give credibility to his moderation, Boric had to add his teams to the Democratic Socialism, made up of different parties of the old Concertación. The coalition that he and his supporters had previously insulted and criticized. It was one of the first decisions that forced the President to accept that his plans are the ones that need to be adapted to the political scenario and not the other way around. A decision that allowed him victory but forced him to govern with two coalitions – two “souls” – which until recently were in direct conflict and have been in constant tension ever since.
Soon after, not only did the ideas that supported his program lose popular support, but issues not on his agenda were imposed. Citizen security – historically linked to the right – shaped these months. Crime is one of the main concerns of citizens on a transversal level, regardless of who they voted for or what political position they hold. Confidence in the security forces and support for their use of force to control violence at demonstrations was also regained.
On another dimension, there has also been a rise in those who believe that the primary responsibility for economic subsistence lies with the people, not the state, and a large majority support international openness. Much of these issues and the tenor of their debates stand in sharp contrast to the positions Boric defended when he was MP and until now I Approve Dignity, one of the government’s souls.
Perhaps the most paradigmatic example of these two elements is the proposal for a new constitution and the exit vote. This proposal, considered by many to be refounded, incorporated several elements of the government’s original program and I Approve Dignity played an important role in the constitutional convention.
The President and his administration were deeply involved in the fate of the proposal, to the point that key officials warned that the program’s development depended on the text’s approval. Although they have tried to distance themselves in recent months, public opinion has united the executive with approval, and the result of the referendum has been read as a major defeat for the government. In addition, the triumph of rejection showed that ideas for founding a new company did not find the support of the citizenry.
In this scenario, only ten months was enough to achieve a 61% rejection. Only his hardest base—those who voted for him on the first ballot—did approval outpace disapproval (CEP, 2022). Economic expectations also fell to their lowest level: 49% believe the country’s economic situation will deteriorate over the next 12 months, contributing to the government’s poor rating.
Though the learning was costly, the executive seems to have understood that victory did not owe its most fundamental soul and that, in order to garner the support of the majority, it must remain on the side of the moderates. Something not easy when the two souls – sometimes in conflict – continue to live together in government. But there is no other way out, considering that in Chile almost a third of the population is located at the center of the left-right axis, while another third is unidentified on this spectrum. In addition, almost half of the population prefers individual efforts to be rewarded, even when there are differences in income.
And so we ended up at the end of his first year in power. Although the President arrived optimistic on the date on the good news about growth and inflation, and some hints of increased support from citizens, the recent rejection of tax reform – the central axis of his program and essential to securing funding – has set in Chess So much so that he was forced to change the urgency and tone of his recent change of cabinet. Now the focus had to be on management, one of its weak points, and on improving legislative work and dialogue in Congress. It’s not clear whether Boric will be able in front of public opinion to endorse the cost of rejecting tax reform to the right, but he does expose La Moneda’s political management difficulties. Two approaches were observed in the face of this episode: a confrontational approach, to some extent similar to post-defeat consensual, and another, more conciliatory, to seek broad agreements that would allow the major reforms to go further.
With the recent change of cabinet, Boric seems to have turned to his more moderate soul. It remains to be seen whether the president stays the course or gets caught up in a kind of two-sided game that has so far cost his government and the country more than it has benefited.
Carmen LeFoulon She is the coordinator of the Public Opinion Center for Public Studies (CEP).
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