While the rest of the world is slowly disarming, Europe is quickly doing the opposite, according to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The Institute examines and compares the global arms trade over four-year periods to better reflect overall trends, rather than just looking at the arms business over 12 months.
The two key trends in the latest report, SIPRI researcher Pieter Wezeman told DW, include that “arms supplies to European states have increased significantly” and that “the US’s role as an arms supplier to the world has also increased significantly. “
In the most recent period, 2018-22, international arms trade fell by just over 5% compared to 2013-17. In contrast, arms imports from European countries – most of which came from the United States – increased by 47%, and those from European NATO countries by as much as 65%. The reason for this, unsurprisingly, is the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine gets most western weapon systems, like the German-made Leopard 2 main battle tank, for freeImage: Martin Meissner/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
The US is increasing exports to Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and Japan
In the past, Ukraine was not a major player in the international arms trade. It manufactured much of its defense equipment domestically, and the rest was left over from the Soviet era. However, in the latest SIPRI report, the country ranks 14th on the list of global arms importers. Looking at 2022 alone, Ukraine is in third place.
SIPRI usually refers to “arms transfers” in its report, meaning both arms trade and free military aid, the latter being Ukraine’s most important arms shipment. This type of military aid usually consists of older equipment or surplus stocks from donor countries.
The report shows how, as a result, what was shipped to Ukraine pales in value compared to new arms sales. For example, despite massive US arms shipments to Ukraine last year, Washington still sent higher-value goods to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Japan. These four countries in particular bought new and sophisticated equipment such as fighter jets, something Ukraine has been urging its western allies to do.
Submarines are among Germany’s top armament exportsImage: Joerg Waterstraat/SULUPRESS.DE/picture alliance
France wins, Germany loses
The top five arms exporters are, in order, the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany. While this ranking has not changed since the last report, there have been significant changes in the data from each country.
For example, the US, already at the top of the list, increased its exports by another 14% and now accounts for 40% of global arms transfers.
France recorded a significantly larger increase of 44%, which was able to extend its third place. However, according to SIPRI, such major changes are not unusual, since particularly large and lucrative orders can occur within a certain time frame.
This is also how Pieter Wezeman explains the sharp decline in the German defense business, which was 35% less than in the previous report. But, according to Wezeman, “this time the change in France’s arms exports may be more structural in nature. France has placed great emphasis on supporting its defense industry and has clearly been successful in doing so over the past decade. “
Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently made this clear during a visit to India. Western powers are trying to encourage New Delhi to rely less on Russia for arms. While France has established itself as India’s second largest supplier after Moscow for years, Germany currently plays no role in Indian arms imports.
Germany does not export arms to India, although Chancellor Scholz (left) may hope to change that. PICTURED: SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP
China locked out of key arms markets
Also notable is the 23% decline in Chinese arms exports and, more generally, China’s minor importance as a global arms exporter compared to its economy as a whole.
“China has failed to penetrate some of the most important arms markets, sometimes for clearly political reasons,” Wezeman said. As a result, China does not sell arms to its rival India, for example.
“Surprisingly,” he added, “China has also not really managed to compete against European and US arms suppliers in most of the Middle East, especially the Arab states.”
Russia overtakes China in African arms exports
As Europe started importing more arms, its share of international arms transfers also increased from 11% in 2013-17 to 16% in 2018-22. At the same time, arms transfers fell in all other regions of the world.
One of the most extreme cases was in Africa, where remittances fell by 40%. But that hasn’t made the continent more peaceful, Wezeman said.
Numerous armed conflicts persist across the continent. However, he said, “These countries are unable to truly afford large numbers of advanced weapons, and thus the total value of arms transfers to the region in that sense is not as high as the number of conflicts might suggest. “
Russia’s influence in Africa has been growing since French troops left Mali in 2022. Image: Florent Verges/AFP
In sub-Saharan Africa, Russia has now overtaken China as the world’s largest arms supplier – particularly with its foray into Mali. The Sahel nation used to buy guns from a variety of countries, including France and the United States. However, after the 2020/21 coups in Mali, these two western countries began to significantly shrink their business in the country, while Russia expanded its sales.
Another example of the consequences of political upheavals for armaments cooperation – in another region – is Turkey. The NATO member was the seventh largest buyer of US defense equipment from 2013 to 2017. However, as relations between Ankara and Washington have become more strained, Turkey ranks only 27th.
Future orders serve as a forecast
Who will lead the international armaments business in the future? To find out, SIPRI looked at the order books of the manufacturers in the most important armaments exporting countries. Particular attention was paid to orders for combat aircraft and helicopters, as well as for larger warships such as aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates and submarines, weapon systems of particularly high value.
Based on these orders, the US will remain by far the largest arms supplier in the world. This is illustrated by the fact that around 60% of all combat aircraft and helicopters ordered worldwide are US products. In 2022 alone, 13 countries ordered a total of 376 combat aircraft and helicopters from US manufacturers.
France has both aircraft and ship orders, which should further strengthen its position as an arms exporter. The prospects for Germany are mixed. There are no orders for German aircraft, but a large number of naval vessels are currently being built in German shipyards.
Russia, the world’s second largest producer, currently has relatively few orders on its books. Many weapons that might otherwise have been exported are needed in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
This article was originally written in German.
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