1 of 4 Europe gears up with weight, shows report — Photo: PATRICK LIN/AFP Europe gears up with weight, shows report — Photo: PATRICK LIN/AFP
While arms imports are slowly being cut back in different parts of the world, Europe is going in the opposite direction, according to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report released this Monday (03/13). The Swedish institute analyzes and compares the global arms trade over four years.
Researcher Pieter Wezeman told DW that “weapons transfers to European countries have increased significantly” and that “the role of the United States as a global arms supplier has increased just as much.”
In the analyzed fouryear period from 2018 to 2022, the international arms trade fell by a little more than 5% compared to the previous period from 2013 to 2017 United States increased by 47% and that of the European NATO members by 65%. The reason for this increase is undoubtedly the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
2 of 4 Participation of the ten largest arms exporters in the world market (2018 2022) — Photo: DW Participation of the ten largest arms exporters in the world market (2018 2022) — Photo: DW
US exports to Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and Japan
Ukraine itself did not play a major role in the international arms trade before the war. Much of its defense equipment was either made on national soil or dated from the Soviet era. However, according to the Sipri report, Ukraine now ranks 14th in the list of world importers. Looking only at the year 2022, the country rises to 3rd place.
The Sipri report refers to “arms transfers”, including trade and (free) military aid, which is Ukraine’s main source of arms. As a rule, this is not the most modern equipment, but surpluses from the arsenals of other nations.
Therefore, according to the report, the value of supplies to Ukraine is small compared to the sale of new weapons.
Despite the massive shipment of US arms to Ukraine in 2022, the US government sent higher value goods to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Japan. These four countries have bought particularly new and sophisticated equipment such as fighter jets, something Ukraine has urgently requested from its western allies but has so far been unable to obtain.
The top five arms exporters are the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany. Although this ranking has not changed since the last report, there have been significant changes in each country.
The United States, already at the top of the list, increased its exports by another 14% and now accounts for 40% of global arms transfers.
A much larger increase of 44% was recorded by France, which consolidated its third place. However, according to Sipri, such changes are not uncommon, as there can be particularly large and profitable orders at certain times.
This is how Pieter Wezeman explains the sharp 35% slump in the German armaments market. However, “the shift in French arms exports is probably of a more structural nature: France is heavily promoting its arms industry and has had great success with it over the past decade”.
3 of 4 Most western arms transfers went to Ukraine, like this Germanmade Leopard 2 — Photo: Martin Meissner/AP Photo Most western arms transfers went to Ukraine, like this Germanmade Leopard 2 — Photo: Martin Meissner/AP photo
Chancellor Olaf Scholz also felt this during a recent visit to India. Western powers are trying to encourage New Delhi to rely less on Russian arms. While France has established itself as the country’s second most important supplier after Russia for years, Germany does not play a major role there.
China surprisingly weak
Also noteworthy is the 23% decline in Chinese arms exports and, in general, the country’s minor importance as a global arms exporter in the overall economic context.
According to Pieter Wezeman: “China has failed to penetrate some of the most important defense markets, in some cases for clearly political reasons.” For example, it does not sell arms to its rival India.
In addition, “surprisingly, it has also failed to compete against its American and European competitors in most Middle Eastern countries.”
Increased imports by Europe caused its share of international arms transfers to increase from 11% in 20132017 to 16% in 20182022, while it fell in all other regions.
One of the most extreme cases is Africa, where remittances fell by 40%. “But that doesn’t make Africa any more peaceful,” Wezeman emphasizes, because the SIPRI numbers “are not directly related to the conflicts in which weapons are used.”
In fact, there are many armed conflicts in Africa. However, “these countries are unable to acquire large quantities of sophisticated weapons, so the total value of transfers to the region is not as high as the number of conflicts would suggest.”
4 of 4 Russian influence is growing in Africa: Putin portrait in Mali, a few days before the start of the invasion of Ukraine — Photo: Florent Verges/AFP Russian influence is growing in Africa: Putin portrait in Mali, a few days before the start of the invasion of Ukraine Beginning of the invasion from Ukraine — Photo: Florent Verges/AFP
In subSaharan Africa, Russia has overtaken China in arms supplies. An example of this growth is Mali, which used to buy arms from a number of countries, including France and the US. But after the coups in the African country, Paris and Washington began significantly reducing business in 2020 and 2021, while Moscow expanded its sales.
Another example of the impact of political unrest on armaments cooperation is Turkey, the seventhlargest buyer of American defense equipment between 2013 and 2017. According to the latest report, however, as tensions between Ankara and Washington increased, member country NATO dropped to 27th place.
Future orders serve as a forecast
Who will lead the international arms trade in the future? To find out, Sipri analyzed orders from manufacturers in the most important arms exporting countries, with orders for combat aircraft and helicopters and larger warships such as aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates and submarine systems being particularly valuable.
The US will continue to be by far the largest arms supplier in the world. This is reflected in the fact that the country produces around 60% of the fighter jets and helicopters ordered worldwide.
In 2022 alone, 13 countries ordered a total of 376 fighter jets and helicopters from US manufacturers.
France has many orders, both for aircraft and ships, and is expected to increase in arms exports. The prospects for Germany are mixed: there are not many orders for German aircraft, but there are many orders for naval ships.
And Russia, the second largest producer in the world, has relatively few orders. Many weapons that could be exported must now be needed in your war against Ukraine.