“Bear Bets” are actual bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica actually makes.
The first round of the NCAA Men’s Tournament is one of the most exciting times of the tournament. Every team looks forward to proving they’re meant to be there and every bettor is poised to win some money.
So I did a few little things for my betting buddies who are willing to throw a few bucks at college prom.
While I have a few favorites emerging from this round, I’ll give a few underdogs a look. Let’s dive in, have fun and make some money!
View the full bracket here
(1) Houston (-19) vs (16) Northern Kentucky
With or without Marcus Sasser, this should be an easy, ugly win for the Cougars. For comparison, Northern Kentucky lost 15 to FAU and 21 to Washington State. The Norse own one of the worst 2-point FG% in the country, and that means a lot of rebounds and transition baskets for the Cougars. Oh, Northern Kentucky also allows a lot of offensive rebounds – as if Houston needs help here.
After losing to Memphis on Sunday, this should be an opportunity for the Cougars to settle down in a big way.
CHOOSE: Houston (-19 on FOX Bet) wins by more than 19 points
(4) Tennessee (-11) versus (13) Louisiana
I’m not optimistic the Vols will make a long run, but there’s a difference between that and being able to put the defensive brackets on a sunbelt team. The problem is that the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t shoot free throws well even when the whistle is tight and may settle for a point if they get to the line. Even without Zakai Zeigler, the Vols were to pull away from Jordan Brown and his crew late on.
The best team ULL played on this year was Texas, and that was in a noncompetitive game that the Longhorns won in Austin by 28 points. Drake also beat the Cajuns by 12.
CHOOSE: Tennessee (-11 on FOX Bet) wins by more than 11 points
(10) State of Boise (+1.5) vs (7) northwest
I’m aware that Boise State hasn’t won a tournament game and Mountain West was terrible at the Big Dance, but I like the Broncos’ matchup here. Northwestern is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, and Boise plays great defense.
Yes, Northwestern is a good defensive team on its own, and Boo Buie might be the best player on the floor, but I like the supporting cast for Marcus Shaver on Boise better and think the Broncos have more answers on offense.
CHOOSE: Boise State (+1.5 on FOX Bet) loses by less than 1.5 points (or wins outright)
(5) Miami (-2) versus (12) drake
I am confident that the Canes will have Norchad Omier in the line-up. The game taps Friday night at 7:25 a.m., which means he will have had about the maximum possible rehab time. Even if he can’t go, the Canes Guards should be successful against Drake, a team whose best win this year was over Mississippi State.
Maybe the Miami defense will fight, and I’m reading this wrong. But I’m going to go here with the contrarian five-seed.
CHOOSE: Miami (-2 on FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points
(14) State of Montana (+8.5) vs (3) State of Kansas
I’m getting a little upset here, with one vexed possibility that hasn’t been mentioned often. The Bobcats lost in the first round to a Big 12 opponent last year, but are a better defensive team this year and get to the free-throw line often. K-State topped a losing season a year ago and is the weakest of the three seeds. Don’t be surprised if this is close.
CHOOSE: Montana State (+8.5 on FOX Bet) loses by under 8.5 points (or wins outright)
CHOOSE: Montana State (+330 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win straight away
(5) State of San Diego (-5) versus (12) Charleston
I don’t like the matchup here for Charleston at all. San Diego State should slow that pace, and since Charleston shoots a lot of threes — and not a high percentage (33%) — what happens when they have less possession and fewer tries? The Aztecs have a top 10 3-point defense, and I like them here against what is probably the trendiest 12–seed angry selection.
CHOOSE: San Diego State (-5 on FOX Bet) wins by more than 5 points
(12) Oral Roberts (+6) vs (5) duke
I was planning on betting against Oral Roberts in the first round as I expected them to be a trendy pick. However, with the Golden Eagles up against a red-hot Blue Devils team – one that has gotten a lot of people into the Final Four – I’ve reconsidered my thoughts.
This is an experienced Oral Roberts team with several contributors from the 2021 Sweet 16 roster. Duke flips the ball often, doesn’t shoot the three well and has to work on defense to keep Oral Roberts from looking good.
The Blue Devils should definitely be on the alert here.
CHOOSE: Oral Roberts (+6 on FOX Bet) loses by under 6 points (or wins outright)
CHOOSE: Oral Roberts (+240 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win straight away
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Jason McIntyre and Colin Cowherd react to Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue being selected as 1-seeds ahead of the 2023 NCAA tournament.
(9) Illinois (+2) vs (8) Arkansas
When you consider how Illinois snagged wins against UCLA and Texas — a pair of two seeds — you’re wondering how the Illini get stuck on the 8-9 line. But then you look at how badly they shoot three-pointers and free-throws.
However, the Illini had five losses that were by five points or less.
Arkansas has played like a young team with injuries all year. Sometimes the Razorbacks look great, but other times they blow leads and can’t buy a basket. Arkansas is going to be a problem in the SEC next year, but right now I think Illinois with Terrence Shannon, Matthew Mayer and the fascination of how we know the Illini can look compared to the elite competition is a little bit more one known raw material.
CHOOSE: Illinois (+2 on FOX Bet) loses by less than 2 points (or wins outright)
(13) Kent State (+4) vs (4) Indiana
I know it’s not the best number, but I still think Kent State is the right side. The Golden Flashes punched nowhere above their level–conference that scared Houston and Gonzaga earlier this year. Senior duo Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs certainly won’t be scared here.
Obviously, former Indiana assistant Rob Senderhoff would love to knock out the Hoosiers, so there must be a lot of extra juice there.
Trayce Jackson-Davis could just take over and lead IU to a win, but I’m not so sure. I’ll get the points.
CHOOSE: Kent State (+4 on FOX Bet) loses by less than 4 points (or wins outright)
CHOOSE: Kent State (+160 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win straight away
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has been involved in sports for almost three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, soccer, golf, tennis, MLB, NHL, and horse racing, betting on such events “occasionally.” Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the top 10 in the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He is a multiple qualifier for the NHC Handicap Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @Chrisfallika.
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