There are so many ways to break down the NCAA tournament class.
You can view all CVs. They examine the NET rankings. You can weigh the big wins against the bad losses to see if one means more than the other. You can try to figure out if a good game lately means teams peak at the right time, or if it doesn’t really matter because the NCAA tournament is a chaotic series of one-game seasons and nothing else before that matters while you’re in the field.
You can browse the extended stats from KenPom.com or BartTorvik.com to analyze which team is performing well against their opponents and which teams have key weaknesses that come into their own. You can check out leaderboards, check out our experts’ picks here at CBS Sports, and try to narrow things down using historical trends for upsets and for champions.
The only thing you can’t seem to do is actually put pen to paper (or click the team to the next round) and actually fill out your bracket. You now have so many numbers and random thoughts in your head that you can talk your way in and out of any team.
Don’t worry, you are not alone. Sometimes it’s best to just make the choice and be done with it. So that’s what I do here: 63 picks in 63 sets, one for each remaining game in the NCAA tournament. I did this in 2019 and got the champion right, so at least there is precedent for that help.
Let’s go.
First round
South
- No. 1 Alabama via No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi – The top overall winner has no problems here.
- No. 8 Maryland via No. 9 West Virginia – When in doubt, consult the most experienced Warden: Jahmir Young.
- No. 5 San Diego State via No. 12 College of Charleston – Matt Bradley is one of the best offensive players you probably don’t know.
- No. 4 Virginia via No. 13 Furman – The Cavaliers defense contests a popular surprise pick.
- No. 6 Creighton via No. 11 NC State – The Bluejays don’t have a lot of depth, but these five starting spots are really, really good.
- No. 3 Baylor over No. 14 UCSB – Guards win in March, and Baylor has a lot of it.
- Utah State No. 10 over No. 7 Missouri — Ryan Odom, who led UMBC over Virginia in 2018 — is back for another first-round win.
- No. 2 Arizona over No. 15 Princeton – The Tigers are good, but Arizona’s big man with a double strike from Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Bello will be too much.
Middle West
- No. 1 Houston via No. 16 Northern Kentucky — Keep an eye on Marcus Sasser’s health as the Cougars begin their NCAA tournament.
- No. 9 Auburn over No. 8 Iowa — Auburn has never lost in the first round under Bruce Pearl.
- #13 Kent State via #4 Indiana – I just don’t trust the Hoosiers’ guards enough, and I trust Sincere Carry.
- No. 5 Miami via No. 12 Drake – I’d feel a lot better knowing the status of Norchad Omier’s ankle, but for now Miami’s talented guards can overcome that uncertainty.
- No. 6 Iowa State over No. 11 Pittsburgh — Iowa State won’t miss all of the open 3-pointers Mississippi State made in the First Four game against Pittsburgh.
- #3 Xavier via #14 Kennesaw State — Meet the name Souley Boum.
- No. 7 Texas A&M via No. 10 Penn State – Get to know the name Wade Taylor IV.
- No. 2 Texas via No. 15 Colgate – The Raiders could give the Longhorns problems with their best Division I 3-point shooting, but Texas has too much depth and athleticism.
west
- No. 1 Kansas over No. 16 Howard — The Jayhawks’ quest for a second straight title is off to a good start.
- No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Illinois – These two teams are incredibly contradictory, but Eric Musselman has a habit of bringing out the best in his teams when tournament time comes.
- #5 Saint Mary’s via #12 VCU — Sorry to shut down another Cinderella favorite, but Saint Mary’s is really, really good, even if the Gaels didn’t look it that way in the WCC title game against Gonzaga.
- No. 4 UConn via No. 13 Iona – The Huskies will walk like Jordan Hawkins and expect a good start for the talented wing here.
- No. 11 Arizona State via No. 6 TCU – This is the 13th tournament to feature a First Four, and in 11 of the previous 12 a First Four team made at least the second round; Arizona State will join this group.
- #3 Gonzaga via #14 Grand Canyon — The best offensive in the country (yes, I said it) cruises.
- No. 10 Boise State via No. 7 Northwestern — The length of the Broncos down the wing will cause problems for the Wildcats, but keep an eye on the point guard fight between Marcus Shaver Jr. and Boo Buie.
- No. 2 UCLA via No. 15 UNC Asheville — Mick Cronin’s squad has long experience and isn’t about to slip up early.
East
- No. 1 Purdue over No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson – FDU is the smallest team in the country, and Zach Edey is one of the biggest — and one of the best — players in the country.
- No. 9 FAU via No. 8 Memphis – The Owls are disciplined and experienced, they defend well and they make shots.
- No. 5 Duke over No. 12 Oral Roberts – The Blue Devils’ newcomers often make the headlines, but it’s Jeremy Roach who makes it big to stop Max Abmas and company.
- No. 4 Tennessee via No. 13 Louisiana — Santiago Vescovi is one of the most creative scorers in the game, and there’s just enough around him.
- No. 11 Providence over No. 6 Kentucky — It’s a big game for Bryce Hopkins against his former team, but it’s Providence’s experience that will ultimately push Providence up and down over John Caliparis
- No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Montana State — The Wildcats struggled a bit in the end, but not so much that they lost to a Montana State program that is entering an NCAA tournament for the second straight year.
- Michigan State No. 7 via USC No. 10 — Tyson Walker has had the clutch gene his entire career, and this time will be no different.
- #2 Marquette over #15 Vermont – The Golden Eagles have won the Big East regular-season and tournament titles, which seems good to me.
Second round
South
- #1 Alabama over #8 Maryland – The Crimson Tide have so much length, athleticism, and a really good, experienced, and underrated point guard in Jahvon Quinerly.
- No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – This will be a slow, tricky contest, but the Aztecs have more shot creators later when it comes to points.
- No. 3 Baylor over No. 6 Creighton – The Bears’ defense is struggling, but their offense is excellent and Adam Flagler won’t be quite ready to go home.
- No. 2 Arizona via No. 10 Utah State — Tubelis and Ballo will bury the perimeter-oriented Aggies.
Middle West
- #1 Houston Vs. #9 Auburn – Houston’s enduring veterans will keep them on course against an Auburn team that’s been through many ups and downs.
- No. 5 Miami via No. 13 Kent State – If Omier isn’t healthy for the first round, maybe two more days will help?
- No. 3 Xavier via No. 6 Iowa State – Like I said: Souley Boum.
- #2 Texas over #7 Texas A&M – The Longhorns simply have more scoring options, more lineup options and, until last buzzer, more points.
west
- No. 1 Kansas over No. 8 Arkansas — I’ll always give the advantage of having experience over the youth, and with Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris Jr. the Jayhawks have a lot to offer.
- #4 UConn via #5 Saint Mary’s – In Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, the Gaels will be faced with a big task (literally), and they just won’t have enough.
- No. 3 Gonzaga over No. 11 Nevada – The Wolf Pack’s defense isn’t nearly enough to slow down Drew Timme and co.
- No. 2 UCLA over No. 10 Boise State — People didn’t properly appreciate Jaime Jaquez’s spectacular season, but they might start after this one.
East
- No. 1 Purdue via No. 9 Florida Atlantic — It won’t be easy, but the Boilermakers will continue to roll behind Edey and fellow veteran Mason Gillis.
- No. 4 Tennessee via No. 5 Duke – It may be my boldest pick since everyone seems to love Duke’s late-season attack and hates Tennessee’s late-season slump, but the Volunteers have the length, depth and defensive ability to bring down the Blue Devils.
- No. 11 Providence over No. 3 Kansas State — In a battle between two of the nation’s best forwards — Hopkins and Keyontae Johnson — the brothers prove tougher and, importantly, more cautious with the ball.
- No. 2 Marquette via No. 7 Michigan State – Meet the name Tyler Kolek.
sweet 16
South
- #1 Alabama via #5 San Diego State – The Crimson Tide are just too good offensively and too disciplined defensively for the Aztecs.
- #3 Baylor over #2 Arizona – The Bears’ backcourt advantage is enough to close the gap on the Wildcats’ internal dominance.
Middle West
- No. 5 Miami over No. 1 Houston – Omier’s ankle will be closer to 100% and the No. 1 seed falls while Miami’s gunnery reigns.
- No. 2 Texas via No. 3 Xavier – The Musketeers’ lack of depth is finally catching up with them, and that’s certainly not a problem for Texas, arguably the best team in the nation.
west
- #1 Kansas over #4 UConn – In a game with a bunch of really good, quality, experienced players, Wilson will be the best player on the court, as he is in almost every game.
- No. 2 UCLA on No. 3 Gonzaga – The Bruins avenge one of the biggest games in 2020 NCAA tournament history.
East
- No. 4 Tennessee via No. 1 Purdue – The Volunteers have enough size and athleticism to give Edey a hard time, but it’s the outside defense that gives them the biggest advantage over the Boilermakers and their young guards.
- No. 2 Marquette over No. 11 Providence — The Golden Eagles have the length and athleticism to rival the hard-living brothers, and Kolek will continue his run as the best guard on the floor.
Elite Eight
South
- #1 Alabama via #3 Baylor – The Bears’ relative overachievement finally ends here as the Crimson Tide pretty much all defend the 3-point line and take advantage of defensive breakdowns.
Middle West
- No. 2 Texas over No. 5 Miami – The depth, the experience, the versatility, the great guard play – all important parts of a team that has already overcome a lot and will continue to do so.
west
- No. 2 UCLA over No. 1 Kansas — The Bruins defense is arguably the best in the nation even without Jaylen Clark, and the Jayhawks won’t have enough scoring chances after Wilson and Gradey Dick.
East
- No. 2 Marquette over No. 4 Tennessee — A dozen years after Shaka Smart led VCU to the Final Four, she’s back at both ends thanks to a tight-knit team.
last four
- No. 1 Alabama via No. 2 Marquette – The Crimson Tide are excellent at defending the color and the 3-point line, which will help minimize Kolek’s drives and his teammates’ catch-and-shoot abilities.
- No. 2 Texas over No. 2 UCLA — Marcus Carr is the top scorer and Timmy Allen is the top singles scorer, but it’s Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Sir’Jabari Rice who will propel the Longhorns into their first Final Four.
National Championship Game
- No. 2 Texas over No. 1 Alabama — The Longhorns have plenty of options to bet on Quinerly and Brandon Miller, the length to defend the rim and ultimately the kind of team to win the program’s first NCAA tournament title becomes.
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