The opposition to French President Emmanuel Macron tabled two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly this Friday in a bid to halt unpopular pension reforms and topple Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne’s government. The proposal most likely to succeed is that of the small group of regionalists and centrists LIOT (French acronym for Liberties, Independents, Ultram…
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The opposition to French President Emmanuel Macron tabled two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly this Friday in a bid to halt unpopular pension reforms and topple Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne’s government. The motion most likely to succeed is that of the small group of regionalists and centrists LIOT (French acronym for Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories). Both Marine Le Pen’s extreme right and the coalition of the left, the main opposition blocs, are ready to support her. They would miss about 30 votes from Los Republicanos (LR), the historic party of the moderate right and fourth force in the plenary chamber. It is not certain whether they will succeed.
Spontaneous demonstrations and roadblocks erupted across France in preparation for the vote, which was due to take place on Monday. The protests on Monday night, after the law was passed by express and without a vote, degenerated into clashes and barricades in several cities. Police officers arrested 310 people. Unions called next Thursday for the ninth day of national mobilization since the government presented the bill in January.
The motions of no confidence come in response to Macron’s decision to push through pension reform under Article 49(3) of the Constitution. The article allows the government to end parliamentary debates and adopt a piece of legislation without putting it to a vote. The opposition can stop the law by passing a motion of no confidence and enforcing it. In this case, the prime minister and the government fall and the law is deemed to have been rejected. Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has tabled its own motion of no confidence, but it will have less success than LIOT’s as a majority of MPs will refuse to support a far-right text.
Vote, Sunday or Monday
After the text of the law was passed on Thursday, the opposition had 24 hours to submit the motion of no confidence. The prerequisite was the signature of 58 MPs. After that, voting will be stopped within 48 hours. It could be from Sunday afternoon or more likely Monday morning.
If the motion of no confidence receives the majority of the votes, Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne and her government must resign. President Macron then has two options. The first is to appoint a new prime minister and government. He doesn’t need a vote of confidence, but he can ask for one. The other option is to dissolve the National Assembly and call early parliamentary elections, which would result in a new composition of the chamber, perhaps a new majority and a new government.
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Macron has privately indicated that he prefers the second option: if a no-confidence vote succeeds, he will dissolve the chamber and call general elections. In the current National Assembly, which will be elected in June 2022, the three parties supporting the centrist Macron form the first block with 250 MPs. The left-wing coalition, controlled by Eurosceptic anti-capitalist Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insumisa (LFI), has 149 of whom 74 are from LFI. Le Pens RN, 88th LIOT, 20th Republicans, 61st
Republicans hold the key. Four MPs from this party have already agreed to vote in favor of the motion. Together with Die Linke, RN, LIOT and three MEPs from the mixed parliamentary group, they achieve 264 seats. They would be missing about 23 and the only fishing ground where they can get them is LR. All efforts of the others this weekend will focus on convincing the doubters of this game.
Although LR leaders have spoken out in favor of the reform and against the no-confidence vote, their ability to control their troops is in doubt, as demonstrated on Thursday. The moderate right has historically backed the Pensions Act’s most controversial measure: raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. On Thursday, however, those leaders failed to reassure Macron that his group would back the move. The numbers didn’t come out for the President, or they were so close – and the outcome uncertain – that he chose not to risk it. Therefore, he refrained from approving it by votes and chose the expedited route using 49.3.
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