The exchange of blows between Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Moscow goes to the next round: in a press consultation with his company, the Concord Group, it is stated that the Security Council of the Russian Federation is working for the ” neutralization” of the mercenary group and its founder – with Putin’s consent.
However, the American think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) sees this only as an excuse for Prigozhin to verbally arm himself against the Secretary of the Council, Nikolai Patrushev. And make him the target of their criticism alongside Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukraine operation.
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It is common for Prigozhin to answer questions from the press via Telegram and the Russian social network VKontakte. But the press inquiry by the Moscow newspaper “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” on Thursday left ISW experts suspicious.
He alleges that Patrushev hinted to Putin that “there will be nothing left of the Wagner Group in a month and a half to two months”. In this existential necessity, Prigozhin could deploy his remaining fighters against Russia and try to bring annexed areas in Ukraine under his control.
To prevent this, Russia’s Security Council secretary has already ordered surveillance of Wagner’s former fighters, according to the request. “Putin agreed with Patrushev’s arguments and thanked him for the work done to neutralize Wagner’s mercenaries in general and Yevgeny Prigozhin in particular.”
According to the newspaper, the information would come from Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels. A statement that ISW could not verify – also “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” has not yet published an article on the subject. However, analysts have a different theory about how to understand the press inquiry.
The lack of evidence suggests “that Prigozhin fabricated the alleged conspiracy” to bolster the Wagner group’s reputation and his own. Furthermore, ISW experts see the Telegram message as an attempt to portray Patrushev as an enemy of the Wagner group and hold him responsible for the mercenaries’ future failures.
Wagner mercenaries loyal to Prigozhin
However, the story may have a grain of truth. As the Portal news agency reports, there is “great loyalty” to Prigozhin among Wagner’s mercenaries. Whether this goes so far as to be directed against Russian troops is unclear. But fighters have him to thank for their freedom – sometimes from very long prison sentences.
According to US information, around 50,000 Wagner mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine. Among them would be 40,000 prisoners recruited from Russian prisons. Among their ranks are murderers and thieves. Portal managed to identify several of Wagner’s mercenaries and interviewed five of them:
It was perfectly clear that they were going to die.
Dmitry YermakovWagner’s mercenaries
In the summer of 2022, Prigozhin began traveling around Russian prisons hiring prisoners for his private army. Four of those interviewed were recruited directly by Wagner’s boss – including Rustam Borowkow.
“I knew immediately that I was leaving before he came to us,” the former prisoner told Portal. He was serving a 13-year prison sentence for manslaughter and robbery – he still had seven years to go. About 40 other prisoners reported with him.
Another Wagner recruit reported on a prisoner who had only a few months until his release – after a 25-year sentence – and yet he enlisted. Portal could not verify the story.
Borowkow’s only motivation was the promised freedom – after six months of service. The monthly salary of 100,000 rubles (1,225 euros) – more than twice the average Russian salary – did not interest him as much, he told Portal.
Two to three weeks of wartime training
The subsequent two to three week training was “organized at the highest level”, the coach’s former Russian elite soldiers, according to Borokov. In the Bundeswehr, only basic training lasts three months.
“It takes time to learn the basics of combat, get individual training and then do collective training as a unit – a few weeks alone doesn’t do much,” military expert Michael Kofman told Portal. Even the military knowledge of some recruits wouldn’t change that.
A photo from a video released by the press service of Russian Wagner group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly shows Wagner fighters waving a flag at a building in Bakhmut. © Portal/Concord Press Service/Uncredited
Some of the recruits were simply hoping to serve their sentence and participate in as little combat as possible, Dmitry Yermakov told Portal. The convicted kidnapper had four years left of a 14-year sentence. “It was absolutely clear that they would die.” Some recruits who decided otherwise and did not want to fight were threatened with firing squad, reports Portal.
Yermakov describes his last day at the front, when he was injured, as “pure hell”. However, he wants to remain committed to Wagner after his recovery, he told Portal. The mercenary force offers, among other things, well-paying operations in Libya, Syria or the Central African Republic, Yermakov said. In civilian life, he sees only limited possibilities. Many former prisoners probably feel the same way.
Prigozhin finds himself betrayed by military leadership
The new row between Wagner’s boss Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership follows a series of disputes that date back to comments made by Prigozhin in the early months of the war.
For months, the mercenary chief blamed the Ministry of Defense in Moscow for the slow “military operation” in Ukraine. In early February 2023, Prigozhin complained that he was no longer allowed to recruit inmates from Russian prisons into his mercenary troupe. Instead, the Ministry of Defense in Moscow is now claiming this source of recruitment for itself, as the non-governmental organization “Russia behind bars” announced at the time.
In the recent past, Wagner’s boss has also likened the alleged failure to deliver ammunition to his fighters in Ukraine by the ministry and general staff to “high treason”. Only to be corrected not long after.
In several audio messages, Prigozhin complained that Shoigu and Gerasimov “still don’t give us ammunition”. In the end, he even threatened to withdraw from Bachmut if Wagner’s mercenaries were not replenished.
The result of the blockade in Moscow was a large death toll among Wagner’s fighters, who were mainly deployed in Bakhmut, explained Prigozchin. “Those who are preventing us from trying to win this war are working directly for the enemy,” Wagner’s boss said.
However, an official document shows that the Russian Ministry of Defense, in turn, accuses the Wagner group of “consuming ammunition resources and thus causing shortages across the front line”. The Telegram channel “VChK-OGPU” published the letter at the end of February.
Wagner’s group will apparently be eliminated
A comprehensive analysis by ISW this past weekend shows the rivalry between Wagner’s boss and Russia’s Ministry of Defense at its peak. The ministry “is currently focused on eliminating Wagner from the battlefields,” concludes the Washington-based think tank.
High losses among mercenaries in the battle for Bakhmut possibly lead to the ability to take the city with regular troops and steadily reduce Prigozhin’s influence in Russia, analyzes ISW.
Recently, a political scientist close to the Kremlin accused Wagner’s boss that his ambitions could pose a threat to his mercenaries at the front. Prigozhin’s self-portrait as the “commander” of his private Wagner troupe “has a direct impact on the planning and management of the stormtrooper’s combat missions,” Aleksey Mukhin wrote in Telegram.
Mukhin also complained that Prigozhin did not recognize the support of his mercenaries by the Russian military leadership. Prigozhin’s political ambitions are out of place.
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ISW analysts write that Prigozhin’s growing political and military influence may also have come from Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. Kremlin officials, who preferred to remain anonymous, also confirmed that Putin prefers loyalty to competence. Experts support this assumption with the fact that Putin has given his defense minister and chief of staff more powers again.
According to the analysis, Prigozhin can only be seen in Moscow as a useful “scapegoat” to whom high losses among his mercenaries, “reports of low morale and war crimes” can be attributed. A welcome distraction from similar problems in the Russian army.
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