The first wave of NFL free agency has come and gone. And even amid complaints that there wasn’t a lot of top talent in this year’s free agency class, there were plenty of intriguing names and useful players to be found.
I looked at a group of signings across the league and the potential impact they could have on the 2023 NFL Draft — for the team that signed the player, the team that lost the player, and all other teams (or players) who may have been caught following the signing.
To start, we looked at one of the biggest dominoes to fall, both figuratively and literally.
Best remaining available: The Athletic’s top 150 free agents
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Free Agency Notes: The Athletic’s Mike Jones evaluates all signings
Does the free agency work?: Rating value from 2020-2022
A jumbo sized butterfly effect
Once it was revealed that Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. was testing free-agency waters, his potential market was intriguing — especially when combined with Brown’s insistence that he should stay on the left flank. The Bengals eventually won the right to award Brown to a four-year, $64 million contract with $31 million in guarantees.
While Brown didn’t quite get the contract he wanted, the Bengals emerged victorious by receiving an upgrade at a key position with well above average to good starting left tackling, and doing so with an extremely team friendly contract, which essentially amounts to a two-year contract. The deal also has less guaranteed money and a lower average annual value (AAV) than other tackles like DJ Humphries and Braden Smith.
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Brown will have his ups and downs as a pass protector, but he’ll be an asset in the running game, especially for a revised running attack by the Bengals, who diversified his scheme during the 2022 season to create one of the NFL’s most efficient bottom games. It’ll be interesting to see what the Bengals do in the end in the right duel between former first-round pick Jonah Williams (who has reportedly requested a trade) and the 2022 signing of La’el Collins.
How might this affect the design?
Brown’s signing with the Bengals impacted several other teams. His former club, the Chiefs, signed former Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor and plans to have him replace Brown in left tackle, though Taylor has had only a few snaps at that position throughout his professional and collegiate career. That’s not stopping the Chiefs from continuing to give free-hand rocks to players like Isaiah Wynn or limited free agency Yosh Nijman, who received a second-round offer from the Packers this week. There were also rumors that the Chiefs were snooping on a possible trade for Texan OT Laremy Tunsil. But all of that makes the Chiefs a candidate to fill their proper tackle position with the final first-round pick.
There are many intriguing tackles in this year’s draft class, although evaluators are divided on how they rank the position. Tennessee’s Darnell Wright — a prospect I’m particularly optimistic about — would be a home run in the 31st pick, but he’ll likely be gone long before that. Ohio State’s Dawand Jones was actually the Chiefs’ pick in The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft and it would be a match of value and fit that makes sense.
The Bears, another team long rumored to be interested in Brown, said he wasn’t actually a viable plan for them.
This makes sense considering Brown is ideal for gap and man-based run schemes where he’s used to ramping down blocks or pulls. However, Bears offensive line coach Chris Morgan has a background in Shanahan offensive lines that prefer playing in the outside zone, something the strong but heavy-footed Brown doesn’t particularly excel at.
The Bears have number 9 and could go in different directions with the offensive line still showing on their GPS for the 2023 off-season. Chicago signed Nate Davis to play guard and could push Cody Whitehair up center, but that still leaves the Bears with a hole at either right guard or left guard. (I give 2022 fifth-round Braxton Jones the benefit of the doubt after playing winning football on the blindside as a rookie.)
Northwestern’s versatile Peter Skoronski can play down the offensive line and would give the Bears a handy tool for figuring out their top five linemen going forward. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Wright could also be options in the ninth pick. Johnson and Jones have more experience at left tackle than right (which shouldn’t stop the Bears from drafting the best player available), while Wright has experience at both tackle spots.
Carolina used the free hand to fill up her skill position spaces that had been left empty by leaving free agents and trading sweeteners (more on that in a moment).
Running back D’Onta Foreman had a strong second half of his 2022 season but signed with the Bears as a free agent, leaving Chuba Hubbard and his 466 yards as the Panthers’ leading returning rusher. They addressed this by signing Miles Sanders to help eat transports and reunited him with former position coach Duce Staley.
At the tight end, the Panthers signed Hayden Hurst, a player who does a lot of things well and gives the Panthers’ tight space a useful extra pass catcher. Hurst might not be a true matchup nightmare, but he’s a much better receiving option than blockers Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble (62 goals combined in 2022).
Miles Sanders is helping the Panthers ramp up their ability position talent. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
How might this affect the design?
The Panthers were the team that lit the fuse for the 2023 draft, traded with the Bears, and took the No. 1 pole position.
Carolina will have a top-notch offensive line and plans to have one of the better defenses in the league. By all accounts, the Panthers have stepped up to take on their future quarterback. While the package they sent Chicago included a healthy selection of draft capital, the addition of wide receiver DJ Moore also left the Panthers without a true No. 1 option at wide receiver (apologies to Terrace Marshall Jr. shareholders, Inc. ).
The Panthers still have their second-round pick (No. 39) and the 49ers’ third-round pick (No. 93, via Christian McCaffrey’s trade). Given this year’s crop of receiver prospects, this is a reasonable range to target this position. It’s hard to predict which wide receivers will go into the first round, but Boston College’s Zay Flowers could be in the second round early. He’s undersized but has an inside-outside skill set to translate to the next level and quickly become a young quarterback’s favorite target.
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Having recently hooked up with free-agent wide receiver DJ Chark and having their #1 options at different skill position points, the Panthers are able to make a potential rookie quarterback’s acclamation as smooth as possible .
The Eagles sign another foursome from defensive Vets
How many players the defending NFC champions would lose on defense was a compelling subplot that entered the free hand. GM Howie Roseman and Eagles Human Resources had to make decisions involving multiple starters and key rotation players. Four moved to greener (like the color of money) pastures: Javon Hargrave signed a big deal with the 49ers, safety Marcus Epps went to the Raiders, and linebackers TJ Edwards and Kyzir White brought their talents to Chicago and Arizona, respectively.
The Eagles have re-signed four of their more experienced veterans after positive seasons. Philadelphia’s 32-year defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and soon-to-be 35-year-old defensive end Brandon Graham returned on one-year contracts, while cornerback James Bradberry signed for three more years and cornerback Darius Slay signed a two-year extension after what initially appeared to be a the Eagles would release him.
As the could affect the design
The Eagles hold two first-round picks in this year’s draft, including the No. 10. They looked like they might need to replenish a potentially depleted defensive group, so the return of two contributors to their defensive line (Graham was picked in 2022 with a more limited number of Snaps tapers) and their two starting cornerbacks are a great way to find answers for the upcoming season.
It also kept options open as to which way the Eagles want to go in the draft. Cornerback may no longer be necessary (unless the Eagles want to bring some youth into the position), but safety and linebackers are points the Eagles could explore. Epps joined the Raiders and fellow safety CJ Gardner-Johnson is still available in the free agency market, leaving Philadelphia with question marks on safety positions.
The Eagles could also look to field another player alongside 2022 third-rounder Nakobe Dean to bolster the position, though that linebacker rank isn’t particularly deep.
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Texas running back Bijan Robinson was a player who was constantly linked with the Eagles, and he could add even more talent to their offense. The Eagles also signed Rashaad Penny to a one-year deal. Penny, when healthy, is one of the most talented players – in any position – in the NFL. While his injury history will make it difficult to rely on him to last a full season, it should be a real pleasure to watch Penny run from behind the Eagles’ offensive line. This signing could also help dispel rumors that 10th-ranked Robinson is an option, but what about 30th?
The Eagles love to use the draft to talent their lines on either side of the ball. With Hargrave gone and Graham and Cox aging, the Eagles could be tempted to add another player with pedigree to their talented (and deep) front.
That too long; Unread version of this: The Eagles have options in the draft and they all make sense. And that’s not the worst place to sit after a Super Bowl performance.
Even with Jeff Okudah’s resurgent play being selected in the 2020 first round, cornerback was a glaring hole for a Lions team looking to make a playoff push in 2023 (and beyond).
The Lions decided to double-tap that depth map by signing Cameron Sutton to a three-year deal and taking home a flyer about Emmanuel Moseley, who is recovering from a cruciate ligament injury in October. Both players are clear upgrades and will help give the Lions options at cornerback where previously they just put players in and told them to last 60 minutes.
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How might this affect the design?
Cornerback position is no longer as obvious for the Lions, who own two first-round picks. And that leaves the draft open to a “choose-your-adventure-type” proposition for Detroit decision-makers. However, GM Brad Holmes could well continue to rejuvenate his cornerback space by picking a rookie cornerback to drop in alongside Sutton and Moseley.
It’s a pretty loaded cornerback class. The top 26 on The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board includes six cornerbacks (including Alabama’s jack-of-all-trades Brian Branch, who plans to play in the next league). And the Lions are flexible with picks in 6th and 18th place.
If they want to add youth, Sutton played a chunk of snaps in the slot in Pittsburgh so he could give the Lions some flexibility. With Moseley injured (and on a one-year contract), drafting a Detroit cornerback would also give them a chance to solidify position and figure out the best grouping.
However, if the Lions feel they’ve solved their cornerback problem by giving them a free hand, they have an opportunity to bolster their defensive line early in the draft. This is a team capable of being big winners by nabbing a talented defender when it comes to an early run on quarterbacks, as is currently the plan.
The Lions will be an extremely interesting and fun team in 2023. Their offense could be among the best in the league – even half-blank projections should have them in the top 10. While my early defensive focus is Lions, there’s nothing stopping them from adding a tight end or even an offensive guard with that 18th pick. This would add even more talent to an already strong unit that has pulled a great game from Jared Goff and has successful players at O-line and receiver, and despite the loss of fan favorite Jamaal Williams with the signing of David a running back Get upgraded Montgomery.
Some quick hitters…
Cowboys trade for Stephon Gilmore
The Cowboys have (finally) found a cornerback to pair with Trevon Diggs. Cornerbacks over the age of 30 are always difficult to forecast (another reason the Eagles are bringing back their veteran CBs is an interesting time frame to keep the balance), but Stephon Gilmore was a plus player at Indianapolis last season and has experience playing singles -high covers. He can use his high football IQ to compensate for declining athleticism.
The Cowboys’ defense has loved using Cover 1 under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, so it should be a smooth transition for Gilmore. But another restrained aspect of the 2022 Cowboys defense was their surge in using Cover 2, which is an easier physical question on cornerbacks in cover and can unlock smarter defenders. That sounds like a match for Gilmore’s game at this point in his career.
The Cowboys don’t necessarily need a cornerback for the draft now, or really a defensive back after the signing of safety Donovan Wilson. You can take an approach where the best player is available.
Stephon Gilmore gives the Cowboys their answer at the No. 2 cornerback. (George Walker IV/USA Today)
Seahawks re-sign Drew Lock
This could be a big ol’ nonsburger or indicate that the Seahawks aren’t trying to pick a future quarterback at No. 5, even with Geno Smith (and his very friendly contract) bridging whenever that quarterback is ready.
Drew Lock’s new contract is only for a year, and it’s not a crazy investment. But it’s not nothing. There’s a limited number of practice replays, and that could indicate the Seahawks aren’t ready to start a new rookie contract timer just yet. But again, it’s not a crazy investment, and it’s one the Seahawks could get out of. So it could also be insurance for the Seahawks in case a quarterback they like isn’t in the draft.
It’s all interesting but I’ll end this part of the article because I feel like Charlie Kelly trying to find Pepe Silvia.
Patriots sign JuJu Smith-Schuster
The Patriots decided to save a few million dollars a year by bringing in JuJu Smith-Schuster rather than keeping Jakobi Meyers. Smith-Schuster is a valuable power slot type that brings in a physical presence as a blocker and under-zone beater. While he doesn’t add much speed to the Patriots offense, he pairs well with outside options DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton, who was selected for the second round of 2022 and brings an element of speed to the offense. New England also has Kendrick Bourne as a jack of all trades.
The Patriots had one of the best defenses in the league in 2022 and managed to return a large chunk of their snaps for 2023. This gives the Patriots an opportunity to draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Her #14 pick fits in well, where the top players are projected up front.
(Top Photo by Orlando Brown Jr.: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)