“The next few years will be decisive for the course of climate change in this century,” warned IPCC chief Hoesung Lee at the start of the IPCC plenary session that ended on Friday. “We know we are facing a catastrophe,” said UN Deputy Secretary-General Ligia Noronha. “We are not on track to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.”
Even the three most recent reports, published between summer 2021 and spring 2022, were alarming: climate change is happening faster and with more serious consequences than previously assumed. Even in the best-case scenario with strong climate protection measures, the target of limiting warming to less than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is unlikely to be achieved for at least some time beyond the 2030s.
Hitting the climate tipping point is hard to avoid
The now-expected 3,000-page summary report should be much clearer and emphasize more strongly than ever the danger that these tipping points will be reached, at which a cascading worsening of the climate crisis will begin. For example, areas of permafrost would release large amounts of the greenhouse gas methane when they thaw, and Earth would absorb even more sunlight as the white ice sheets melt.
Gregor Aisch/Nature (Raftery et al)
“Atlas of Human Suffering”
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the IPCC Working Group II report published in February 2022 as the “Atlas of Human Suffering”. According to the report’s authors, between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people are “highly vulnerable” to the consequences of global warming, including heat waves, lack of clean water and the spread of tropical diseases. By mid-century, many coastal cities and island nations will experience annual flooding of a type that used to occur only once a century.
Climate change is already having a negative impact on people’s physical health. In regions where corresponding data are collected, an increase in climate-related mental health problems can also be observed. The report’s authors emphasize that climate change is hitting already disadvantaged people, such as indigenous peoples, particularly hard.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Organization (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its task is to neutrally inform policymakers about scientific findings on climate change and possible countermeasures. 195 countries belong to the IPCC.
“The accumulated scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet,” concluded the IPCC last year. With further delays in climate protection and climate adaptation, humanity is missing “a small window of opportunity that is rapidly closing to secure a livable and sustainable future for all”.
ecosystems on the edge
To date, plants, forests and soil absorb and store nearly a third of human greenhouse gas emissions. However, the intensive exploitation of resources by man releases CO2, methane and nitrogen oxide. Agriculture also uses 70% of the Earth’s freshwater resources.
The oceans also ensure a habitable planet, absorbing a quarter of humanity’s CO2 emissions and more than 90% of the heat generated by greenhouse gases. But this has consequences: the oceans are becoming acidic, potentially reducing their ability to absorb CO2. Rising sea surface temperatures are making tropical storms more frequent and violent.
Farewell to fossil fuels is necessary
The IPCC concludes that the only way to maintain Earth as a habitable planet is to make “quick and profound, and in most cases immediate, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors”, including transport, agriculture, industry and production of energy.
debate
Where is climate policy going?
In concrete terms, this means that the use of coal power plants without CO2 capture should be reduced by 70% to 90% by the end of the decade. By 2050, humanity must be CO2 neutral and remove excess greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere with appropriate technologies.
But humanity must also reduce its methane emissions, warns the IPCC. The second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 is released by leaks in fossil fuel production and agriculture, among other things. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere is already at its highest level in at least two million years.
The good news, as the IPCC emphasizes, is that there are good alternatives to climate-damaging fossil fuels. And their costs have dropped dramatically in recent years.