Climate change is “a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet” and the “window of opportunity” humanity has to ensure “a livable and sustainable future” is “fast closing”. It is the ultimatum-tinged communication that contains the synthesis report approved this weekend after many hours of negotiations within the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The window is closing before our eyes because this decade, considered a key decade in the fight against climate, does not follow the path that science is pursuing to keep warming within the safety limits set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Although this has been the case, despite some progress, greenhouse gas emissions – mostly from fossil fuels – are not being cut fast enough and deep enough. Missing that opportunity will be the responsibility of this generation, but the consequences will not only be seen with our eyes: “The actions taken in this decade will have an impact now and for thousands of years to come.” And it is already known that this crisis has caused “widespread adverse effects and loss and damage” to people and nature.
The summary report, presented this Monday, is 37 pages long and was coordinated in Interlaken, Switzerland, between scientists at the IPCC and representatives of the nearly 200 nations participating in the climate change negotiations taking place within the UN spanning more than three decades. Also for more than 30 years, the IPCC has been responsible for creating the basis for scientific knowledge on global warming. The warnings from this panel of experts have grown in intensity as climate change and its impacts become more evident and severe… Until reaching this sixth assessment report, in which scientists conclude that many of the changes associated with this crisis – such as rise of sea level or the melting of the ice – will be “irreversible” for hundreds of years and even millennia.
But the future has not yet been fully written and it is still in the hands of man to determine how severe the next ramifications of this emergency will be. “Deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would result in a measurable slowdown in global warming in about two decades,” they add, lending some optimism to this bleak X-ray.
Every year, thousands of articles are published around the world about one of humanity’s greatest challenges of this century: the climate crisis. The IPCC regularly reviews all scientific evidence to guide governments in making decisions. The document presented this Monday completes the sixth cycle of reviews. The first was in 1990; and the most recent to date dates from 2014 and was used to launch the Paris Agreement to combat global warming at the 2015 summit in the French capital. This sixth review – with the synthesis document drawing on six reports published by the IPCC since 2018 – must be used by countries to review progress in the application of the Global Warming Treaty at the UN Summit where he will take place to evaluate at the end of the year in Dubai. And the news is not good, because global greenhouse gas emissions still need to be cut as urgently and drastically as it takes. “The urgency to reduce our emissions increases each month as our emissions continue to rise when they should already be falling rapidly,” summarizes Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project and one of the IPCC scientists.
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The Paris Agreement stipulated that countries around the world should reduce their emissions to ensure that the temperature rise remains below 2 degrees Celsius and preferably below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. But the planet is already warming by 1.1 degrees and scientists say it’s highly likely that it will surpass 1.5 degrees over the next two decades due to accumulated emissions, although it could fall below that limit later if it does to a 180 degree turn. Whether that happens depends on how quickly gases are reduced to virtually zero after 2050. The IPCC warns that “urgent, effective and equitable mitigation and adaptation measures” are needed.
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timetable
According to the now final IPCC review, the way is clear: In order to achieve the increasingly complicated goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, global greenhouse gas emissions must have fallen by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 (the practically the current ones), 60% in 2035 and 84% in 2050. The road to 2 degrees is a little less steep: in 2030 the reduction in emissions is projected to be 21%, 35% in 2035 and 64% in 2050 But even that second target is only going uphill because global emissions aren’t falling (in fact, they’re up about 1% in 2022). The report warns that current government plans, presented as part of the Paris Agreement, will result in a temperature rise of 2.8 degrees. Every tenth of an increase counts because it multiplies the negative impact of this crisis. “Without urgent, effective and equitable mitigation and adaptation measures, climate change increasingly threatens ecosystems, biodiversity and the livelihoods, health and well-being of present and future generations,” the report states.
But maybe it’s best to start at the beginning. This sixth revision of the IPCC removes any doubt. Climate change exists and was “clearly caused” by only one species inhabiting the planet: humans. The planet’s surface temperature is on average 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than before the Industrial Revolution (1850), and warming is accelerating. Using the temperature rise from 1970 to the present as a reference, there has never been such a rapid warming in a 50-year period, at least for the past 2,000 years, the IPCC states. The cause? Greenhouse gases – mainly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – produced by human activities. At this point, concentrations of carbon dioxide (the most important of these gases) in the atmosphere are at their highest for at least two million years, and those of methane and nitrous oxide are at their highest for at least 800,000 years.
uneven effects
The warming already achieved by the emitted gases, which remain in the atmosphere for decades or centuries, has caused “far-reaching and rapid changes” on the planet. It is not just about an average rise in temperature: “Man-made climate change is already affecting many extreme weather and climate events in all regions of the world,” notes the IPCC. Scientists are becoming increasingly aware of the direct link between warming and an increase in events “such as heat waves, heavy rains, droughts and tropical cyclones”.
This climate crisis is also a story of inequality between those responsible and those who are victims. “Vulnerable communities, which have historically contributed least to current climate change, are disproportionately affected,” the study concludes. A fact: “Between 3,300 and 3,600 million people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.” This vulnerability depends not only on the geographic area, but also on the socioeconomic situation, which makes populations with fewer resources more vulnerable in the face of extremes . “The increase in extreme weather and climate events has left millions of people in a situation of acute food insecurity and reduced water security,” adds the study presented this Monday. Another piece of information: “Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in high-risk regions than in regions with very low vulnerability.” have been disproportionately affected,” said Aditi Mukherji, one of the report’s authors.
Floods in Pakistan last September. Fareed Khan (AP)
The forecast envisages an intensification of the scenario: “All regions of the world are facing a renewed increase in climate hazards.” Coastal regions increase “in the short term”, loss of biodiversity, decline in food production in some regions… In addition, the forecast indicates that more and more combined impacts will occur simultaneously, such as heat waves and droughts. The scientists add another caveat: “The risks and projected adverse impacts, loss and damage associated with climate change are increasing with each increase in global warming.” It is therefore important to fight to reduce emissions.
solutions
When it comes to greenhouse gases, it is important to look at how humans produce energy. The IPCC states that currently “approximately 79% of the world’s emissions” come from industry, transport and construction, or in other words, from fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal. The inequality among the polluters is also eloquent: “People with a high socio-economic level contribute disproportionately to the emissions and have the greatest potential for reducing emissions.”
The IPCC Synthesis Report also sends a somewhat hopeful message, noting that “viable, effective and inexpensive options are already available” to reduce the gases emitted by the global economy. “There are many ways to reduce high-emission consumption while improving social welfare,” the study emphasizes. For example, one of the most repeated by the IPCC is the use of renewable energy as a substitute for fossil fuels. “Between 2010 and 2019, the unit costs for solar power (85%), wind power (55%) and lithium-ion batteries (85%) fell sustainably,” it says as an example.
Renewable energies are joined as a solution by the electrification of urban systems, urban green infrastructure, energy efficiency, waste reduction… Actions that, according to the IPCC, are “increasingly profitable and generally count on public support. Canadell also highlights from the report the quantification of the benefits of fighting the climate, which are even greater than the costs required to move away from fossil fuels. “It’s a win-win for us and for the planet,” says Canadell. In other words, “The price of inaction is equal to or greater than the benefits of fully decarbonizing the economy.” IPCC President Hoesung Lee made the same point on Monday, stressing that “the incorporation of effective and equitable climate action is not will not only reduce losses and damage to nature and people, but will also bring more benefits”. .
Coal fired power plant in Weisweiler, Germany WOLFGANG RATTAY (Portal)
But to complete the transformation that has already begun in some parts of the world, “rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors are needed” if we are to “ensure a livable and sustainable future for all”. And the systemic change required is unprecedented in scale, encompassing not just technological but also socio-economic shifts away from fossil fuels.
“A Survival Guide for Humanity”
António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), has defined the IPCC report as a “survival guide for humanity” and is intended to defuse the “time bomb” that represents the climate crisis. He is also confident that “the limit of 1.5 degrees is still achievable”. Although he has recognized that “a quantum leap in climate protection is needed” that will lead to “a massive acceleration in the climate protection efforts of all countries and all sectors”.
Without words, Guterres used the publication of the report to put forward a proposal with concrete measures to keep the 1.5 degree target alive. These are some of the actions:
- Developed countries must commit to achieving net-zero emissions as close as possible by 2040 (currently, commitments are focused on 2050). Guterres reminded that this is feasible and that some states have already set this goal for 2035. In the case of emerging economies, the UN Secretary-General calls for net-zero emissions to be achieved “as close as possible to 2050” (countries like China or China). India is now proposing it with nuances for after 2060).
- Approve no new coal-fired power plants and phase out existing ones by 2030 in the OECD countries and by 2040 in all other countries. Also end all public and private international coal financing.
- Ensure zero-emission electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and by 2040 for the rest of the world.
- End all licensing or financing of new oil and gas products. And stop any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves. A global phase-out of current oil and gas production must also be established.
- Trade fossil fuel subsidies for a just energy transition.
- Executives of all oil and gas companies should present credible, comprehensive, and detailed transition plans that include and clearly disaggregate actual emissions reductions for 2025 and 2030 and efforts to change business models to phase out fossil fuels and expand renewable energy.
- Accelerate climate justice efforts and promote reforms to ensure multilateral development banks provide more climate grants and loans and fully mobilize private finance. This includes the developed countries fulfilling the obligation to mobilize the $100,000 million a year for the developing countries. In addition, the new loss and damage fund is to be implemented before the end of this year and the Green Climate Fund is to be launched again this year.
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