“This report underscores the urgency of more ambitious action and shows that if we act now, it is still possible to ensure a livable and sustainable future for all,” said Hoasung Lee, who led this work. “A sustainable and livable future for all” is indeed at stake for humanity.
The IPCC scientists’ colossal work is clarifying and refining our understanding of global warming. It is “clearly” the result of emissions by humanity greenhouse gaswith carbon dioxide (CO2) in first place.
More than a century of fossil fuel use (oil, gas and coal) has already brought us to a planet that is 1.1°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. This leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. These catastrophes affect the entire planet, and almost half of humanity to global warming”.
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Without rapid and intensive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the situation will only get worse. “What is very important in this report compared to the previous ones is understanding the risks if we exceed 1.5°C warming,” explains Matthias Garschagen, one of the 93 authors of this report. “It is a likely hypothesis that current policy is leading us to. We will then lose ecosystems, glaciers, coral reefs and more. Some of these losses will be irreversible. Exceeding the limit can sometimes be tempting, but given the risks, it shouldn’t be.”
Mankind has never produced as much CO2 as in 2022
In fact, according to the IPCC, current government commitments result in 2.8°C of warming in 2100. But here we are, those commitments are not necessarily followed by action to implement them. Therefore, without strengthening current policy, the IPCC estimates that warming is likely to reach 3.2°C by the same deadline. A gear change is therefore urgently needed: mankind has never emitted as much CO2 as in the past year, and at this rate the 1.5°C limit will be exceeded “in the near future”. .
Given that, there are two tools that must be used together: mitigation of global warming by no longer emitting greenhouse gases and adapting to the changes that are sometimes inevitable and are already emerging. “Often we hear that there is not enough time to mitigate. It is true that we urgently need to reduce our emissions. But there is also no time to adapt,” says Matthias Garschagen: “Think about what needs to be implemented for coastal cities or for agricultural seeds. It takes time, you have to organize yourself. We have to accelerate. »
In fact, this time pressure is becoming more and more important. This report thus underscores more than the previous ones the extreme sensitivity of the systems to climate change. Clearly, with the same level of warming, the risks are actually higher than previously assumed.
“We have solutions”
Fortunately, “the most important message is that we have solutions,” emphasizes Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford: “We know how to adapt. We know how to create incentives for emission reductions. It’s not that we don’t have the technology or the knowledge. We really lack a sense of urgency. We try to remember that in this report. We have the solution and we must implement it quickly to make the world a better place for everyone. »
This report and its messages are accompanied by a “Summary for Decision Makers”. A summary of thousands of pages in 36 for leaders. This sum of knowledge, the state of science on the subject in 2023, will, like previous work by the IPCC, serve as a working basis and knowledge foundation for future climate negotiations the next COP28which will take place in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates at the end of the year.
This meeting will be crucial as it will serve to provide a first assessment of the commitments countries have made following the EU2015 Paris Agreement, and possibly reinforce them. This sixth IPCC summary report clearly shows that we cannot do without it.