After seven years of rupture, the two great powers of the Middle East have resumed relations. This reconciliation is reshuffling the maps of geopolitical balances in the region and beyond.
A historic encounter. King Salman of Saudi Arabia invited Iranian President Ebrahim Raïsi to visit Riyadh soon. This request comes shortly after the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The agreement between Tehran and Riyadh signed on March 10 under the aegis of China provides for the reopening of the Saudi and Iranian embassies within two months, the resumption of security talks and economic cooperation.
This process of rapprochement began in Iraq in 2021, after five years of rupture. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran severed all ties in 2016 when Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran were attacked in response to Riyadh’s execution of a famous Shia religious leader.
A more integrated Iran in the Middle East
To show their support for Saudi Arabia, several Gulf states had reduced their diplomatic ties with Tehran. Among them: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Sudan and Bahrain. In recent months, following Riyadh’s actions, the Emirates and Kuwait have begun resuming ties with Iran. “Thanks to Saudi Arabia, Iran will be able to emerge from its isolation,” analyzes Middle East specialist Hasni Abidi.
For several years, Tehran has been living under international sanctions, particularly American ones, targeting key sectors like oil. In fact, Saudi Arabia, a Washington ally, has long backed these sanctions. Iran also accuses Israel of attacking its nuclear infrastructure. Pressure on Iran’s economy and currency has increased in recent months from new Western sanctions in response to protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in custody on September 16, but also from military aid accused of Iran, Russia to deliver against Ukraine, Tehran denies increased. Internally, too, the regime has been weakened by massive protests since the death of Mahsa Amini. “The Iranians were against the wall and Riyadh is offering them a way out,” Hasni Abidi continues.
“It’s an economic bailout for Tehran, which can count on new allies in the region.”
Hasni Abidi, Middle East Specialist
at franceinfo
Hope for calm in Yemen and Syria
This rapprochement also raises hopes of de-escalation, even reconciliation, in war-torn countries where the two powers support opposing camps.
Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a pro-government coalition in Yemen fighting Houthi (Shia minority) rebels with the support of Tehran. On March 12, the Iranian mission to the United Nations said the deal with Riyadh would “accelerate the ceasefire, help start a national dialogue and form an inclusive national government” in Yemen, according to Iran’s official press Irna. However, a Houthi spokesman quoted by Al Arabiya (in English) reminded that the group is not “subordinate” to Tehran and that the resolution of the conflict should go through them and Riyadh.
In Syria, since the war began in 2011, Iran has been the main supporter of President Bashar Al-Assad, who is from the Shia Alawite minority, while Saudi Arabia backs opposition fighters. The Syrian Foreign Ministry described the agreement as an “important step that will lead to strengthening security and stability in the region,” quoted the Associated Press (in English). “Saudi Arabia could lift its veto on Damascus’ rejoining the Arab League if Bashar Al-Assad agrees to distance himself from Tehran,” he analyses David Rigoulet-Roze, Middle East Specialist at Iris.
The beginnings of a regional geopolitical reconfiguration
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has been another area of rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In 2019, a huge leak of Iranian intelligence documents revealed the extent of Tehran’s political, economic and religious influence over the country. “Iraq is the main beneficiary of the restoration of Iran-Saudi Arabia ties, which will ease the pressure on the Iraqi scene,” said Iraqi analyst Ali Al-Bidar, quoted by AFP.
In Lebanon, this new agreement proposes a way out of the political crisis. No successor has been appointed since the departure of former President Michel Aoun in October 2022. Iran-backed Hezbollah has already selected its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, but Riyadh has vetoed that candidacy. In order to get Lebanon out of this impasse, “we certainly have to find a solution,” believes David Rigoulet-Roze.
The Iranians will be monitored in the coming weeks. Will they reduce their support for the Houthis? To Hezbollah? To the Shiite militias in Iraq? Saudi Arabia expects goodwill gestures.
Hasni Abidi
at franceinfo
In any case, these mutations could take some time. The Saudi foreign minister stressed that the deal “doesn’t mean that [Riyad et Téhéran avaient] found a solution to all disputes that [les] reject”.
Israel sees itself isolated
The agreement sounds like a setback for Israel. The Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid lamented “a total and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy”. This arrangement hampers Tel Aviv’s plans to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and continue its strategy of isolating Tehran.
In 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with the goal of normalizing their relations. This diplomatic breakthrough broke decades in which it was unthinkable for an Arab country to recognize Israel without a settlement of the Palestinian question. “Israel hoped that Saudi Arabia would join the Abraham Accords to create a united regional front against Iran, but it failed,” Hasni Abidi said.
“This agreement (…) gives Iran the legitimacy it so desperately needs in the Arab world,” writes the Israeli daily Haaretz (in Hebrew), quoted by Courrier International. It could lead to more deals with Arab states like Egypt (…) or even, who knows, a resumption of negotiations to save the Iran international nuclear deal.” However, the Iranian nuclear program is perceived as an existential threat to Israel.
American diplomacy under scrutiny
“Anything that can help ease tensions (…) is a good thing,” said Antony Blinken, head of American diplomacy, when the agreement was announced. But behind the scenes, this rapprochement embarrasses the United States.
It comes as Washington has mixed ties with Riyadh. In 2021, following the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, Joe Biden authorized the release of documents attributing the journalist’s murder to Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The American President had also attacked the kingdom for its disregard for human rights and the rule of law. “Joe Biden underestimated the consequences of the Riyadh-led military coalition’s intervention in Yemen,” continued David Rigoulet-Roze. That didn’t stop him from visiting the crown prince in 2022, who made a gesture on the price of oil, with no conclusive result.
Mohammed bin Salman has interested and calculated oil relations with Moscow in the context of OPEC+ and with Beijing, of which he is the main oil supplier.
David Rigoulet-Roze, Middle East Specialist
at franceinfo
Beijing’s growing influence in the Middle East
China has several interests in this deal. Beijing is an important economic partner of Iran and Saudi Arabia and therefore needs stability in the region. “China is buying Iranian oil, which is the target of Western sanctions,” sinologist Antoine Bondaz told franceinfo. In the other direction, according to the AP, 30% of Iran’s imports are of Chinese origin, and Beijing has pledged to invest $400 billion in the country over the next 25 years.
Last November, Riyadh bought $4 billion worth of Chinese arms and equipment, the South China Morning Post reports. China, which until now has relied primarily on its economic clout, “is now positioning itself on the geopolitical register, presenting itself as a responsible and political actor,” analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze.