According to British military intelligence, there is a possibility that the Russian offensive in Bakhmut will run out of steam.
The cause could be the regrouping of some Russian units in other sectors of the front, according to ISW: Russian forces have not recently made any confirmed advances in or around Bakhmut.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian attacks north of Bakhmut have been repulsed, suggesting that Russia is concentrating its offensive here.
Russian military bloggers claimed that Wagner’s mercenaries would continue their attacks on an industrial complex north of Bakhmut and control most of it. ISW could not confirm this.
The British Ministry of Defense expects the Wagner Group to lose most of its prison forces in the coming weeks when their contracts run out.
Britain’s daily briefing says thousands of militants recruited from prisons in the autumn will be pardoned and released.
About half of the recruited prisoners may have been killed or wounded, but promises to release survivors appear to have been kept.
Since Wagner is apparently no longer allowed to recruit prisoners, the wave of layoffs will exacerbate his staffing problems. The release of often violent criminals with often traumatic combat experiences can become a major challenge for Russian society.
The Kremlin may have deliberately approved the initial pardons to prevent more Wagner convicts from renewing their term after it ended, further weakening Wagner’s strength.