Alexander Lukashenko boasts membership in a tiny club of world tyrants who still call Russian President Vladimir Putin their ally. But by allowing Putin to go to war with Ukraine, the Belarusian dictator has effectively ceded control of his country to the Kremlin, according to exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
Lukashenko denies that his armed forces are operating in Ukraine and that he plans to enter the war on Russia’s side. But the Belarusian armed forces are now indirectly under the control of the Kremlin, Tikhanovskaya said in an interview with the Guardian.
“It seems to us that Lukashenka no longer controls our army, the only thing he controls is repressions against the Belarusian people,” she said. “We see signs of the military occupation of Belarus.”
A briefing by the US Department of Defense last week raised fears that the deployment of Belarusian troops in Ukraine could be imminent, which would mean a serious escalation of the war. Pictures indicating a message also appeared on social networks about the accumulation of Belarusian troops near the border with Ukraine.
The Belarusian military is taking part in the exercises on Friday. Photo: Ministry of Defense of Belarus/UPI/Rex/ShutterstockTikhanovskaya stated that Putin’s goal is “to pour blood on the hands of Belarusian soldiers, to link the Lukashenka regime with this war, to make him an accomplice.”
She began urging Belarusian troops to either refuse to fight in Ukraine or defect and switch sides once there, rather than obey “criminal orders.” According to her, Belarusian soldiers, many of whom are called up for military service, are ill-prepared, demoralized and scared.
“We are trying to persuade the Belarusian troops not to participate. We communicate with the mothers of soldiers, we persuade them not to let their children go to this war.”
Belarus became the launching pad for Russian ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine and the invasion of Russian ground forces on 24 February. Moscow moved about 30,000 of its troops to Belarus in the weeks leading up to the assault, officially for “military training”.
Four days after the invasion began, Lukashenko lifted his country’s post-Cold War constitutional neutrality after a mock referendum gave him permission to permanently station not only Russian troops but also Russian nuclear weapons removed from the country after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Belarus’ new military doctrine will presumably remove any remaining façade of independence in Minsk. Moreover, the decision to renounce its nuclear-free status and allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil is of immediate strategic concern to the West. It also coincided with Putin’s February 28 announcement that he was putting Russia’s nuclear forces on alert.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya at a protest in Lithuania on Friday against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Mindaugas Kulbis/AP“If Putin wants to take control of the entire territory of Belarus tomorrow, he can do it,” Tikhanovskaya said. According to her, the suppression of any civil or political activity by the Minsk regime allows Russian troops to use the territory of Belarus at the request of Putin, up to interfering in its political life “at any moment.” “Lukashenko is a puppet. Putin runs the country through him.”
Tikhanovskaya and her fellow campaigners, many of whom have been imprisoned or silenced, now have a dual mission: to oppose the regime in Minsk and to mobilize Belarusians to oppose and even sabotage the war in Ukraine through a campaign of civil disobedience.
“Our fight has doubled – we have two fronts, against the regime and to prove that we are not on the side of the war,” she said. Anti-war protests, now rare in Belarus, erupted in Minsk last week and resulted in hundreds of arrests.
However, Tikhanovskaya has no doubt that a wave of protest will rise against the invasion. “A Belarusian movement of resistance to the war has begun in the country, and it will grow,” she said.
Tikhanovskaya wants Western governments to urgently see Ukraine and Belarus as strategically connected: to prevent Putin from attacking Ukraine, his accomplice in Minsk must also be pursued. In video messages of support for Ukraine, she wears a T-shirt that reads “Glory to Ukraine, long live Belarus“.
Ukraine and Belarus together form an integral part of Putin’s imperial vision, she said, and now their destinies are interdependent. “The intention of the Kremlin is to bring back our former countries of the Soviet Union so that they become one huge empire again.”
Forced to seek asylum in Lithuania after running against Lukashenka in an August 2020 presidential election that was rigged in his favor, Tikhanovskaya, a former teacher, now calls herself the legitimate leader of Belarus. European governments refuse to recognize Lukashenka as president from 2020.
Previously, she avoided looking at the struggle for democracy in Belarus from a geopolitical perspective; his focus was on Minsk, not Moscow. Since February 24, the situation has changed dramatically. “Lukashenko dragged us into this conflict and into this war. We must be on the side of the people fighting for their independence.”
Lukashenka’s collaboration with the war made life difficult for many who fled Belarus after 2020 and found themselves in the role of “enemies” in some parts of Eastern Europe.
However, Belarusian volunteers are already fighting in Ukraine to support the resistance, Tikhanovskaya said. “We are starting the formation of Belarusian forces that, together with Ukraine, will fight against two dictators: Putin and Lukashenko.”
Some analysts believe that Lukashenka’s support for the war in Ukraine will hasten his downfall. But Tikhanovskaya also recognizes the immediate danger to Belarusians if Putin prevails in Ukraine and manages to survive the international economic blockade.
“We do not know what kind of deal Lukashenko has with the Kremlin. But for Belarus it will be a different reality. I don’t even want to imagine what will happen if Ukraine falls, it will be a disaster not only for Ukraine and Belarus, but for the entire democratic world. In the future, this will untie the hands of the Kremlin.”
But she sees a shift in popular sentiment within Russia. “The Kremlin is under enormous pressure from within Russia. People in Russia will not be happy with the situation. Russia and the Kremlin are not the same.”
Last week, the EU imposed sweeping new sanctions against individuals associated with the Belarusian regime and banned the export of most manufactured goods, including potash and fertilizers. But Tikhanovskaya said the remaining loopholes must be filled, even if it hurts ordinary Belarusian citizens.
She wants the Belarusian judges who sentenced political prisoners to draconian prison terms to become a target. “These people do terrible things and enjoy complete impunity inside Belarus.”
In December, her human rights activist husband Sergei, who has been detained since 2020, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for challenging Lukashenka and inciting the largest demonstrations in Belarusian history.
The news of Russia’s attack on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant triggered disturbing personal memories for Tikhanovskaya. She grew up in a region of Belarus affected by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.
“For me personally, it’s terrible. When I heard this news, I just prayed. We still remember Chernobyl. This will not happen in our region, but it seems [that] in its quest for power, the Kremlin is oblivious to human suffering.
“Look around at what’s going on, we don’t know where their red lines are, or even if they have any red lines.”