Ukrainian soldiers ride in a BMP infantry fighting vehicle towards Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine on March 22, 2023.
Aris Messinis | AFP | Getty Images
Unusually closed on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile visit to Moscow this week, Ukraine watched Russia roll out the red carpet for China’s leaders and waited their turn to have an audience with Xi.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Chinese President were reportedly scheduled to call after the Sino-Russian meeting earlier this week, but there was no further news and when asked on Tuesday about a possible call between the leaders, Zelenskyy said: ” nothing special [has been decided]; we don’t have confirmation yet.”
China has been trying to position itself as a peace broker between Russia and Ukraine for some time, offering to broker a ceasefire early in the conflict and recently issuing a 12-point peace plan calling for a de-escalation of tensions. China’s proposals were discussed by Xi and Putin in Moscow, and unsurprisingly both backed Beijing’s plan in a joint statement that tacitly criticized the West.
However, Putin tried to posit that Ukraine and the West are standing in the way of peace, but said there were provisions in China’s plan that “can be taken as a basis for a peaceful solution” if Kiev and the West are willing . “So far, however, we have seen no such willingness on their part,” Putin said after talks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was unusually reticent about the Putin-Xi meeting, responded Tuesday by saying that Kiev had “invited” China to participate in a peace formula worked out by Ukraine to end the war, but still waiting for an answer.”
“We have offered China to become a partner in implementing the peace formula. We shared our formula on all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer,” Zelenskyy said at a news conference on Tuesday, adding: “We are receiving some signals, but there are no details yet.”
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Ukraine’s “peace formula” had not been discussed by Xi and Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping leave Moscow’s Kremlin after a reception following their talks March 21, 2023.
Pavel Byrkin | AFP | Getty Images
Some analysts believe that Ukraine would be better off focusing on its existing Western allies than trying to win over a China that is openly allied with Russia on ideological, economic and military levels.
“We don’t need to speak to him after his visit to Moscow [Xi] now,” Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military expert and head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“I don’t see any importance for Kyiv and for President Zelensky to have an audience at all or any talks with Xi Jinping and China right now because we can see that after Xi’s visit to Moscow… [there has been a] Strengthening autocracy between Putin and Xi. China chose one side, Russia’s side,” Musiyenko added.
“I’m not confident that China’s plans and the 12-point peace plan are good for Ukraine – I think this is a very bad deal for Ukraine and that this is a plan for Russia. I don’t see an opportunity and important to talk,” he said.
A peace deal that Ukraine cannot accept
Kyiv has likely been following talks in Moscow closely for signs of deepening Sino-Russian ties or, alternatively, Beijing’s distancing from an aggressive Russia that has lost many of its friends and trading partners on the global stage – even making its allies like China nervous about its invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
It ended up being a bit of both; While Beijing and Russia pledged to deepen their economic cooperation, there was little substance in terms of concrete agreements by the end of the meeting. And regarding the war in Ukraine, both pledged to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict, without specifying how this could be achieved.
The proposed peace plan and recent talks between Xi and Putin offer little tangible substance for how a lasting peace in Ukraine might actually be achieved.
China’s 12-point plan (read it here) contains far-reaching goals and ideals calling for a cessation of hostilities and a resumption of peace talks, but no concrete steps to de-escalate tensions.
It also ignores the main obstacle to peace, that Russia will most likely not withdraw from Ukraine — particularly parts of the country to the south and east that it illegally annexed and declared Russian territory — and that Ukraine will most likely agree to less of a full one Withdrawal.
As a result, analysts say Ukraine is being pushed into a corner where Russia appears willing to discuss China’s peace deal while knowing Ukraine will never accept anything less than the full restoration of its territorial integrity.
“Putin has told the Chinese he is ready to accept discussions of a China-sponsored ceasefire, fully aware that Ukraine opposes it,” Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, said this week.
“This is not for the Ukrainians, who have no interest in accepting a ceasefire when about 13% of their territory is occupied, and are planning a major counter-offensive in the coming weeks (which they expect above all to be at least somewhat will be successful now that their short-term ammunition problem has been largely resolved by the United States and its allies).
Bremmer believes it was noteworthy that Xi announced his visit to Putin before his expected Zelenskyy call was arranged, noting that “Ukraine has been slow to get a definitive appointment because they want to make it clear that Beijing is firmly on the side.” Russia is in conflict.”
Still, he noted: “When it does eventually happen, Ukraine will be careful not to take on China head-on — with Ukraine’s foreign minister reiterating the ‘one China’ principle in a phone call with his Chinese counterpart last week and calling on China to mediate the conflict.” Iran congratulated -Saudi breakthrough.”
Russia needs China, Kyiv?
Xi’s visit was important to Putin as he sought support from China, one of Russia’s last powerful allies, but China cares about Kiev whether he likes it or not: Xi is not only one of the most powerful men in the world, he is among the few people who might influence Russian President Vladimir Putin and change the course of the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s desire to keep the door open for Chinese diplomacy, and perhaps even support, could be seen in President Zelenskyy and his closest officials, who have refrained from publicly criticizing Xi’s visit to Moscow.
While Ukraine has little tangible offer to China in return for its loyalty, analysts note that Russia has essentially opened up to being exploited by China in return for its geopolitical support. as Fred Kempe, executive director of the Atlantic Council, put it to CNBC when China and Russia met this week, we saw “Putin’s desperation meets Xi’s opportunism.”
In any case, it is uncertain whether China can seriously contribute to peace in Ukraine.
Geopolitical analysts Andrius Tursa and Gabriel Wildau of consulting firm Teneo Intelligence noted on Wednesday that after Xi’s Moscow trip, Xi may follow up a call to Zelenskyy to propose a settlement to the war, but at this point, “China’s current proposals are too general, to be seriously considered.”
“Given its influence over Russia, Beijing could theoretically help Ukraine extort concessions from Moscow. However, it remains unclear whether China would be willing to use this influence to negotiate a deal leaving Ukrainian territory as a non-starter in Russian hands.”
Ukrainian analyst Musiyenko said Ukraine is better off clinging to its western allies and trying to enlist more support from the likes of India than chasing China’s favor.
“It is better for us in Ukraine right now to strengthen our western coalition with our western allies and partners,” he added, saying he believes the Japanese prime minister’s visit to Kiev earlier this week, when Xi in Russia was very important.
“We can see that the coalition of the United States and the coalition of the West that unites Asian countries like Japan, and probably in the future expect and we want it to include India as well, that they support democracies and support Western civilization, so I think Kiev has to be on this side [rather than with China],” he said.