Military analyst Sean Bell comments on reports that Russian forces are being regrouped and that Moscow’s attention must now shift from offense to defense in preparation for Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive.
By Sean Bell, Military Analyst
Saturday, March 25, 2023 02:21, UK
Anticipating – perhaps fearing – Western support for Ukraine’s much-anticipated “spring offensive” Russia has spent the past few weeks unleashing wave after wave of attacks against a heroic and determined Ukrainian front.
Progress has been limited, and despite seven months of intense fighting, cities like Bakhmut have not fallen.
Now, Russia seems to be nearing its peak – attack speed has dropped by over 80%.
The Wagner mercenary group is still making painfully slow progress in northern Bakhmut, but the Russian army is struggling to replace casualties and is running out of ammunition and ideas.
Momentum has been lost and the Russian military is in dire need of an operational break.
Reports also indicate that many Russian military forces are being regrouped, leaving the mercenaries in Bakhmut to their fate.
If true, Russia recognizes that its attention must now shift from offense to defense in preparation for Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses. Anyway if Ukraine to liberate its territory, any offensive must be swift and decisive to take advantage of the Russian army’s apparent exhaustion.
But – and a big but – many military analysts believe that Ukraine will have trouble driving Russia out of Donbass and Crimea, so what will the Ukrainian offensive aim to achieve? Move the front line east? Cut the land bridge between Crimea and Donbass?
Image: Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar shell at a frontline position near Bakhmut
Any offensive – even if successful – will eventually lose air before the liberation of all of Ukraine.
However, Western military support is fragile. Already there are growing signs that the supply of smart weapons is at best limited and at worst, dying out.
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In addition, China has a growing influence over Russia and will not want the war to drag on with the growing risk of unintended consequences.
There is also a limited appetite by the West to prolong a war that most believe Ukraine cannot win and Russia cannot lose. And the West will not want China to be recognized as a peacemaker.
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Ukraine will begin its offensive with an impressive arsenal of high-tech western weapons, but what will be achieved on the battlefield?
Both sides will likely end the year exhausted, perhaps with a revised front line, but in a virtual stalemate as neither side will have the resources – men or materiel – to make a decisive move.
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At this stage, the West faces a choice – continue to support an ongoing conflict with dwindling resources, which risks favoring Russia’s long-term strategy – or apply pressure (on both sides) to bring the bloodshed to an end and focus on the Reconstruction focus Ukraine.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Ukraine – the stage is set for what could be the final chapter of this conflict.