Another round, another surprise. The Slingshot model was fairly optimistic about Tennessee’s chances of repelling Florida Atlantic, giving the Owls only a 14.7% chance of beating the Vols. Instead, the game became a perfect lesson in how teams like the Vols can leave themselves vulnerable to an underdog.
Tennessee should have gotten away with this game early. The Vols had multiple nine-point leads in the first half, and in the first 16 minutes of the game, FAU only managed 16 points. If the Vols had increased the pace, they could have exploited the FAU’s lack of rhythm and built up an unassailable lead. Instead, Tennessee’s sluggish pace allowed FAU to hang around. And then three things happened in the second half:
Of course, this result leaves us with another Bracket Breaker game to analyze. So let’s start Slingshot again!
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No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
Probability of excitement: 26.3%
Can the Owls write an encore? Slingshot thinks they have a better chance than they did against Tennessee. An important reason why? Right… cluster analysis!
Kansas State belongs to a family known as the “Gambling Giants” for sacrificing defensive rebounds to force turnovers. FAU is a “sharpshooting killer” largely defined by taking lots of three-pointers. Whatever the reason, these matchups are usually good for the underdog: 39% of tournament games between these two clusters ended in an upset.
Slingshot doesn’t see a huge difference in quality between these two teams either. They are separated by only about 2.5 points per 100 possessions in our model’s baseline performance scores. That would normally result in an even greater likelihood of an upset if not because K-State plays like a very safe giant and FAU doesn’t have strong killer traits. The Wildcats play fast (listen, Tennessee?), force turnovers, and are above-average offensive rebounders, all things that insulate them from a cold night of shooting. And when they shoot well from deep, like in their 11-for-24 display against Michigan State, they’re just a handful to beat. (Slingshot doesn’t yet have a separate category for the stunning 5’8″ point guard, but it does give Markquis Nowell the proverbial cap.)
But if there’s anyone who can not only take on a hot Kansas State three-for-three, but also outperform, it’s Florida Atlantic. You could even say the owls can stay up all night.
(Photo by Florida Atlantic’s Alijah Martin: Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)