1 of 3 missile is launched from a HIMARS, US equipment is sent to Ukraine — Photo: Romeo Ranoco/Portal Missile is launched from a HIMARS, US equipment is sent to Ukraine — Photo: Romeo Ranoco/Portal
Leopard 2 main battle tanks from Norway, MiG29 combat aircraft from Slovakia: Ukraine receives deliveries of heavy weapons from the West almost every day. On Monday (March 20) the USA announced a new military aid package worth 350 million dollars. But the promised main battle tanks Abrams M1 are not there yet.
Abrams without secret armor
Washington recently said it wants to bring the tanks to the front and promised to start shipping older models as early as the second half of this year. The American magazine Politico reported a few weeks ago that the USA does not want to supply Ukraine with Abrams with secret depleted uranium armor. The reason would be the export regulations.
Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, sees nothing unusual in this. “Ukraine will receive the Abrams export variant used in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq,” he said. Its armor is comparable to the older series of Leopard 2 main battle tanks, the Leopard 2 A4, which Norway and before that Poland supplied to Ukraine.
US Army M1A1 Abrams tank fires during NATO military exercise in Latvia March 26, 2021 — Photo: Ints Kalnins/Portal US Army M1A1 Abrams tank fires during NATO military exercise in Latvia March 26, 2021 — Photo: Ints Kalnins/Portal
“The older Abrams is still a good main battle tank, has good thermal imaging and a powerful gun, and is superior to Russian tanks in terms of handling,” explains Gressel.
American howitzers and Ukrainian software
Export rules are one reason why the US only supplies Ukraine with modified versions of certain weapons. But not the only one. “The question is what happens when a tank is left behind and captured and analyzed by the Russians,” Gressel says. This concern may also apply to the US M777 howitzers that have been delivered to Ukraine since April 2022. These howitzers were delivered without GPS navigation and the corresponding onboard computers. Guns without GPS are generally less accurate.
The Ukrainian army quickly found a solution and installed its own systems, including the GIS artillery software “Arta”, developed in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian and Western media, one of the most famous uses of M777 howitzers with GIS software “Arta” was in May 2022. At that time, Ukrainian artillery prevented a particularly large number of Russian troops from crossing the Seversky Donets River, near the village of Bilohorivka in the region Lugansk. Gustav Gressel sees Ukraine in the lead.
“For artillery, fire commands are much faster in digital mode. On the Russian side, on the other hand, a lot is still being done via radio,” he emphasizes.
Serhiy Hrabskyj, a Kievbased military expert and former Ukrainian army officer, sees no major problem in the limitations of Western weapon systems. “All command information systems are integrated into NATO command structures. They can only be used within the framework of NATO tasks,” he told DW. “This is normal practice, Ukraine uses its own systems,” he concluded.
Limited range rocket launcher
The situation is different with the USmade Himar mobile rocket launchers, which Ukraine has been successfully using for point strikes far behind the front lines since mid2022: The US is supplying rockets with a range of around 80 kilometers for the system. But not the much more powerful ATACMS missiles, which can reach targets up to 300 kilometers away.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the US modified these missile launchers before delivery so that they could not fire longrange missiles. Not even if Ukraine finds them on the world market. The newspaper quotes an anonymous US government source as saying the reason is a desire to “reduce the risk of the war with Moscow escalating”.
In September 2022, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that longrange missiles were a “red line” and that it would make Washington a party to the conflict. Gustav Gressel believes that the technical restrictions on Himar rocket launchers can also be reversed if Washington decides to do so for political reasons.
3 of 3 American M777 howitzer in action in Ukraine: equipment is used with Ukrainian software — Photo: Portal American M777 howitzer in action in Ukraine: equipment is used with Ukrainian software — Photo: Portal
Stephen Blank, an expert at the US think tank Institute for Foreign Policy Research (FPRI), believes that the restrictions on US arms sales to Ukraine have to do with “fears of Russia and an escalation of the war in parts of Russia”. However, he thinks this concern is overdone.
“I think we are very afraid of an escalation from Russia,” says the expert. “I don’t understand why Russian territory should be excluded from Ukrainian attacks. Russia started this war and destroyed Ukraine.”
Blank sees a “significant difference” on the battlefield in the fact that Russia can concentrate its military equipment on the Ukrainian border and “fire at will” without fearing a counterattack. “If they couldn’t do that anymore, that would be a big plus for Ukraine.” Blank defends having shown in the negotiations with Russia that the West “does not allow itself to be put under pressure”.
In early 2023, Ukraine’s western partners pledged to supply missiles with a range of up to 150 kilometers. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said at the time that Kiev had promised not to fire on Russian territory. However, this does not apply to the Russianoccupied Ukrainian territories.
Wrong signals to Putin
Stephen Blank believes allies in Europe are even more scared than the US. The Biden administration wants to keep NATO together and is therefore taking this into account, according to the expert.
NATO has repeatedly emphasized that it is not part of the war and does not want to be drawn into the war. ECFR’s Gustav Gressel agrees, but in Washington criticizes the idea that one can “micromanage the war to end it in a desired stalemate.”
“A war is too complex and chaotic for that,” says Gressel. “That just signals to Putin that he has a certain chance of winning the war. Any reluctance to supply Western arms to him is a signal to him that we don’t mean business.”