LONDON (CNN) – The terrorism threat in Northern Ireland has been upgraded from “serious” to “serious” just days ahead of a possible visit to Northern Ireland by US President Joe Biden.
The decision to change the threat level to ‘severe’, meaning an attack is very likely, was taken by Britain’s MI5 security agency and announced on Tuesday by Britain’s Foreign Secretary for Northern Ireland, Chris Heaton-Harris.
Heaton-Harris said the move came after an increase in “Northern Ireland terrorism-related activity”, including the attempted murder of a high-profile police officer last month. While the public should remain vigilant, they should not be alarmed, he said.
Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot dead multiple times by masked men in front of his son and other children at the sports complex in Omagh, County Tyrone, in late February.
Deputy Chief of Police for Northern Ireland (PSNI) Mark McEwan said at the time that the force’s main focus was on “violent Republican dissidents” and a number of people had been arrested since the attack.
“Northern Ireland’s political future depends on the democratic will of the people and not on the violent actions of a few. Together we will ensure there is no return to the violence of the past,” Heaton-Harris said on Tuesday.
The change in threat landscape comes weeks ahead of a possible visit by US President Joe Biden to Northern Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), also known as the Belfast Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence between Irish Republicans and trade unionists, known as “The Trouble”.
The 1998 deal was brokered with the support of then-President Bill Clinton, who will also be visiting Northern Ireland for the occasion. Biden, who is of Irish descent, has made it clear time and again that peace on the island of Ireland is important to him. He made the comments in the context of Brexit, which many warned would spark renewed tension in Northern Ireland.
There has long been tension between trade union communities, who support Northern Ireland as part of the UK, and Republicans, who would prefer Northern Ireland to merge with the Republic of Ireland. The GFA brought these communities together in a compromise that largely ended The Troubles.
An important part of the deal is that the country’s power-sharing government must be made up of politicians from both communities. However, the Northern Ireland government has not met since October last year for a variety of reasons, including the fallout from the Brexit trade deal agreed when Britain left the European Union.
The Democratic Unionist Party, the largest unionist party, does not like the status that the UK government’s Brexit deal has imposed on it. Both the UK and the EU agreed in the Brexit negotiations that there should be no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Although RIA does not specifically state that there should be no boundaries, it is considered essential to prevent violence from escalating.
This created a problem when the UK left the EU’s regulatory system. It was therefore agreed that Northern Ireland would remain within the EU’s area of regulation for goods in order to maintain an open border and that goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK would be controlled at a maritime border.
This, according to the DUP, jeopardizes its place in the UK and forces Northern Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has meanwhile negotiated a new deal for Northern Ireland, but the DUP still sees it as unacceptable.
The fact that the Northern Ireland government will not be present for a possible Biden visit to mark the anniversary of an agreement that saved lives and downgraded some previously active terrorist groups to little more than petty criminals is a major disappointment to the British government.
But Sunak and the EU both insist the deal will not be renegotiated and continue to urge the DUP to support the deal and restore the power-sharing government.