While the 2023 NCAA tournament has had many surprises, you would do well to listen to our expert recommendations. I dominated straight-up picks during March Madness and accurately predicted 47 of the 64 games leading up to the Final Four, which topped our expert pool. In the meantime, all other employees had at least 39 correct picks with a hit rate well over 60%.
Now is your second chance to redeem yourself completely. With the Final Four set — San Diego State vs. FAU on one side of the bracket, Miami vs. UConn on the other — I sent the bat-signal to the team for picks leading into Finals weekend. We reset the bracket and made predictions for both Final Four games as well as the national championship.
Not surprisingly, UConn, the betting favorite to start the week, was our pundits’ overwhelming favorite to end their week in Houston with a championship. As you’ll see below, there are plenty of top picks – with David Cobb making his way into the hearts of Owls fans, and some of us believe the Aztecs will take on the Huskies with a title at stake stands.
2023 Final Four expert predictions
Gary Parish
Any Final Four with zero top 3 finishers is by definition surprising; no one could reasonably have predicted that. But it’s worth noting that one of the schools traveling to Houston (UConn) is now #1 on KenPom.com, while the other three are conference champions. At least these teams have all done well compared to their leagues this season and have always been able to make deep runs through the bracket. As for Saturday, I’ll take FAU via SDSU and UConn via Miami. In the championship game, I have UConn beating Florida Atlantic to win their fifth national championship in a 25-year span, giving the Huskies two more titles than any other school in that span. Dan Hurley predicted and promised years ago that he would bring UConn back to the top of the sport. Now he’s just two wins away from delivering, and smart money is letting him do it.
Matt Norlander
I just watched FAU recover from going behind in the second half against Tennessee, then against Kansas State they put on their best shooting of the tournament. The owls are deep, and they have something special going on here. SDSU is a bowl of molasses to play against, but the good thing about FAU is that they can win games in the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s and 80’s; It’s the most malleable team of the four. Owls play Monday night. when they compete against and lose to the No. 1 team in the sport according to KenPom. The Huskies ceded all four opponents by a total of 90 points, embarrassing potential Final Four contenders Arkansas and Gonzaga in the process. This is a Final Four that honestly any team can win, but I’ll pick the team with the highest ceiling, the most talent, and the best player (Adama Sanogo). Huskies win their fifth national title with a third trainer (Jim Calhoun, Kevin Ollie, Dan Hurley). Final Four MOP: Jordan Hawkins.
Kyle Boone
I’ll admit my picks are a little chalky, but at this point in the NCAA tournament it certainly feels like we’ve got a pretty good pulse with teams still standing. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it’s hard to pick an outcome other than UConn winning all. FAU, Miami, and San Diego State are all worthy contenders, but the Huskies are so dominant on the road that trying to talk me into another team would be foolish. San Diego State or FAU will resist in a potential championship game with their defense play and contrasting styles, but the inside-out length and athleticism have made UConn a worthy betting favorite — and I won’t its one bet against them.
David Cobb
UConn is the most complete team left. The Huskies have a dominant inside presence in Adama Sanogo, a 7ft 2 rim guard in Donovan Clingan and a deep group of perimeter marksmen led by Jordan Hawkins. The only reason this team is seeded at #4 is because of the struggles they went through early during the Big East game. Since that valley, the huskies have clearly been among the elite teams in the nation. After four wins with at least 15 points in the first two weeks of the NCAA tournament, they are the clear favorite to win it all.
Chip Patterson
UConn might be a 4-seed in the bracket, ranked 13th overall by the selection committee, but multiple performance reviews and prediction metrics have placed the Huskies as a top-six team since January. The Huskies are on a different level compared to the rest of this mid-bracket Final Four field, and their dominance over opponents in this tournament indicates a top-flight performance. Dan Hurley’s team is better than the other teams in this Final Four on average, and UConn’s current form is better than average. Anything less than another Huskies title would be a surprise.
Jerry Palm
I like San Diego State in the semifinals against FAU for their defense; The Aztecs are better than any other team at making attacks uncomfortable. Their own offense also seems constantly uncomfortable, but they’ve won with it all year. However, I choose UConn to win the whole thing. The Huskies were the best team in this tournament, and it’s not even close. They look a lot like the team that almost made it to the top of the polls in December. Your bigs are a burden to deal with. Miami’s offense will certainly be a challenge, but UConn can score with them.
Dennis Dodd
I’ve seen enough of the state of San Diego to know that the Aztecs are the vampires of the Final Four. They slowly bleed you dry. They are completely satisfied with a half-time position in the 20s. In back-to-back games, they’ve worn down Alabama and Creighton like Barry Swice wore down Nebraska in the fourth quarter with the wishbone. That being said, FAU could be the most complete team left in the tournament. It has knights, shooters and right in the middle the great Russian Aladislav Goldin. I’d love to see this combo in the championship game against UConn, but unfortunately UConn will win the whole thing no matter who it’s playing against.
Semi-final opponent Miami is sneaky good. Yes, I said so. The ACC champion can surprise. Jim Larrañaga is the first coach I’ve seen walking around the sidelines with his hands in his pockets and barely shouting. But he can scheme with the best of them. The Canes had several runouts against top seed Houston; Then it changed tactics — and post players — beating Texas 35-16 in the final 12 minutes to make the Final Four.
UConn will go into the Final Four as a heavy favorite after beating its four opponents by 90 total points and has the best tournament history of any remaining team. It has four national championships, tied with Kansas for sixth all-time. Coach Dan Hurley is a member of the basketball royal family. His father is a Hall of Fame high school coach. Brother Bobby Hurley is the Arizona state coach who won two national championships as a player at Duke. They’re a physically intimidating team on defense and rank in the top 10 for offensive rebound percentage. The team revolves around Sanogo – and his 7ft 2 wingspan – and shooting guard Jordan Hawkins. It’s too much for everyone else.