The former far-right leader arrived in Brasilia on Thursday after a three-month exile in the United States
He had left his country disgusted and depressed by his loss to Lula. After a three-month exile in the United States, it was a Jair Bolsonaro determined to reshape politics who arrived in Brazil on Thursday, March 30th. “I will not lead the opposition in any way, I will participate [à la vie politique] my party, bring my experience to bear,” he told Brazilian broadcaster CNN on Wednesday evening before taking off from Orlando Airport. The ex-president had already declared his intention to “tour the country” and “do politics” last week Defense of ultra-conservative values in Brazil.
But justice may come to thwart his plans. After his return to Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro knows that he is the target of no fewer than five investigations and that he could even face imprisonment in the long term. Overview of what to expect when he returns home.
A reception with great fanfare that worries the police
Jair Bolsonaro arrived in Brasilia on Thursday morning. This return was eagerly awaited in the city, where the military police had to ensure that no gathering took place. It “will be ready to quickly close access to the Esplanade des Trois-Pouvoirs [au cœur de la capitale] like at the airport,” warned the Minister of Public Security in Brasilia.
The day promised to be tense as the former far-right leader’s supporters took to social media to call for large numbers to greet him at the airport, although their supporter is not expected to speak. A member of his party, Gustavo Gayer, therefore called for “solid support” at the airport to “pave the way for Bolsonaro’s return to the presidency”.
Upon arrival, Jair Bolsonaro has to go to the premises of his party, the Liberal Party (PL), escorted by military police vehicles. There he must be received by the leader of the PL, ex-ministers, deputies and allied senators. The party that publicized the arrival of the former head of state has high hopes for his return: Jair Bolsonaro must even become honorary president of the political formation, which allows him a monthly sum of almost 7,000 euros.
While his successor at the helm of Brazil is barely recovering from pneumonia, the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro is bad news for the political left. “Lula will now have to rule with an organized opposition, that could make a big difference,” predicts Jairo Nicolau, political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, to AFP.
Five legal investigations and possible prosecutions
Five Supreme Court investigations are underway against the right-wing extremist ex-president. Four of these relate to alleged crimes committed during his tenure between 2019 and 2022, and a fifth to suspected incitement to take part in the January 8 riots in Brasilia.
One of the investigations was opened in 2020 when his former justice minister accused him of interfering with the federal police to protect relatives suspected of corruption. He is also being investigated for disinformation about the electronic ballot box system or about Covid-19. As president, Jair Boslonaro could only be brought before the Supreme Court. After he has become a commoner again, the cases concerning him can be dealt with by the courts of first instance, where the procedures are generally shorter.
As he has also recognized, the former head of state could even be imprisoned as a preventive measure. “An arrest warrant can come without warning,” he told the Wall Street Journal in February. In Brazil, a convicted person cannot be imprisoned until all their legal remedies have been exhausted, unless they pose a danger to society or risk jeopardizing investigations and destroying evidence.
In the “very unlikely” event that Jair Bolsonaro is sentenced to the maximum sentence for all of the crimes he is accused of, he could face nearly 40 years behind bars, according to Carla Junqueira, a lawyer with a law degree from the University of Sao Paulo. In any case, the various appeals before the Brazilian authorities will take time and the final judgments will not be made in the short term.
risk of non-admission
Jair Bolsonaro also faces sixteen investigations in the Superior Electoral Court. He could face an eight-year ban, which would prevent him from running for president in 2026. The ex-president is involved in particular because of his repeated verbal attacks on the electronic ballot box system.
Some complaints also denounce the use of the state apparatus for electoral purposes. A few months before last October’s elections, his government had Congress approve an increase in minimum social standards, but this did not allow him to win against left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The most advanced investigation, which experts say poses a real threat to his political future, relates to a meeting with ambassadors last July in Brasilia. In the face of diplomats from around forty countries, Jair Bolsonaro had shown a PowerPoint presentation full of misinformation about electronic ballot boxes, which raised suspicions of abuse of power.
The Saudi Jewelry Affair
The ex-president is finally coming under pressure because of another scandal that made headlines in the press: he is accused of smuggling jewelry donated by Saudi Arabia to Brazil.
The case was brought to light by the daily Esstadao, which revealed that a €3 million set of diamonds intended for former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro had been seized by Brazilian customs. These jewels were in the pocket of a ministerial assistant returning from an official visit to Riyadh in October 2021 and had not been previously declared.
Another batch of men’s jewelery came into the possession of Jair Bolsonaro, who returned it through his lawyers last week at the request of the Court of Auditors. On Tuesday, Estao revealed the existence of a third batch, including a diamond-encrusted Rolex watch, that the former president received during a trip to Saudi Arabia in 2019, which he would not have returned.
Brazilian law only authorizes the head of state to keep gifts from a third country if they are of a very personal nature or of little value. For current Justice Minister Flavio Dino, Jair Bolsonaro could be prosecuted for illegal appropriation of public property or tax evasion. The former president will have to explain himself to federal police on April 5 over the Saudi jewelry, a police source confirmed to AFP on Wednesday.