Redemption season wasn’t supposed to end like this.
Julius Randle wanted to return to All-Star status. He wanted to get back into the All-NBA conversation. He wanted to change his style, shoot more 3-pointers than ever before and learn without contributing more to the basketball. He wanted to lead the New York Knicks to the playoffs for the second time in three years. He wanted to throw away everything that happened last season as he drifted through unforgettable performances and his Knicks wandered to an uninspiring 37 wins.
Somehow he achieved all his goals – except for one.
Randle wanted to play in all 82 games. And he almost made it.
Reality sank in Thursday when the Knicks announced Randle would be sidelined with a sprained left ankle. The two-time All-Star unconventionally landed on his left foot in a win over the Miami Heat the night before. The doctors will examine him again in two weeks.
The news means Randle will miss at least the five remaining games of the regular season in New York.
April 13 is two weeks after Thursday, after the start of the play-in tournament and just two days before the start of the playoffs.
The Knicks will likely stay above the play-in tournament, but they’re not out of the fog just yet. Staying fifth in the Eastern Conference and taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round remains the most likely scenario, but it’s not clear if Randle will be there if and when that series begins. “Reevaluation in two weeks” does not mean return in two weeks.
The Knicks can’t know today if they’ll have Randle when it matters most.
It shouldn’t work like that.
Randle was Mr. Durability for 95 percent of the season. He played in every game and was behind league ironman Mikael Bridges within minutes. But sometimes toughness can’t conquer bad luck. And this bad luck also has bad timing.
Here are some thoughts on the Knicks going without Randle all season for the first time:
Who starts in Randle’s place?
Randle suffered the injury in the second quarter of the Heat game. Obi Toppin started the third quarter in his place.
The decision felt like a throwback to head coach Tom Thibodeau’s days with the Chicago Bulls, when he started Keith Bogans in the first and third quarters but substituted him mid-period and left him on the bench for the rest of the half.
Toppin came off the floor near the end of the third. He never reentered. Meanwhile, the Knicks played small the rest of the way — with Josh Hart and RJ Barrett at the two forwards.
The last five worked because Miami had on the floor. The Heat started the half with a more conventional big man, Kevin Love, in the fours but dwindled as more important minutes came, allowing New York to use Smalls in the fours with little concern.
Maybe Thibodeau will use this lineup more when Randle is out, but he probably won’t start with it. Toppin will probably start. And depending on the matchups and gameplay, the coach can improvise from there.
Who’s in the rotation?
When Toppin, who plays the same position as Randle, was injured earlier this season, big man Jericho Sims showed up for 12 to 15 minutes a night, running alongside backup center Isaiah Hartenstein in a throwback frontcourt that took the paint should tense up and enjoy the offensive glass.
But the circumstances are different now than they were then.
First off, Hart wasn’t on the list yet. Thibodeau has shown he has no problem using the Knicks’ latest rotation piece in the fours, even if he’s short at that point. He cites Hart’s toughness and rebound. Most backup fours in 2023 are old-school small forwards or shooting guards masquerading as power forwards. Hart can protect these guys – and he’s more productive on the glass than Toppin.
The other change from the Hartenstein Sims era is that Miles McBride has made a leap in the past few months.
He’s provided defensive sparks on his rare occasions since becoming the Knicks’ 10th man, their first outside of the rotation. His offense has increased. He hits more 3s and finishes the edge better.
This is a prediction, not a report, but based on how the team is flowing, McBride looks like the most likely addition to the rotation, with the rest of the reserve slipping down a slot, which could mean Barrett playing more power up front as well .
Could Thibodeau capitalize more on Wednesday’s final line-up?
The five that ended the Heat game (Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Hart, Barrett and Hartenstein) had only played 27 minutes together all season Wednesday.
Thibodeau then played them for the entire fourth quarter. Think about it. He didn’t do a sub. And it worked perfectly.
This group surpassed Miami 25-16 during that period. Everyone threw defensively across the court, got out after almost every stop and won the game.
Randle has been so consistent this season that it’s hard to find lineups without him. This one seemed to be working – and it did against a solid, well-trained team in a game that mattered in the standings considering a win in Miami would have drawn the Heat in a game from New York.
Every once in a while, Thibodeau stumbles across a lineup, realizes there’s something boastful about it, and sees how long he can ride it. Perhaps this unit will be another example of that.
Where does the rating come from?
The obvious answer is Jalen Brunson, who has just returned from a wrist injury. He’s already going on offense, averaging a shade less than Randle.
But Randle isn’t just a goalscorer. He grabs defensive rebounds and pushes in transition. When he’s doing well, he gets so hot he can command doubles teams and then throw the basketball around the court to open men. Part of his revolution was to become one of the team’s top long-range spacemen. He will finish with the second most 3-point marks in a season in franchise history.
Randle is often a screening partner for Brunson. Maybe the Knicks are using Mitchell Robinson or Hartenstein to put in more picks for their point guard. You could push Toppin out of the corners where he usually resides and use him in more screen-and-rolls.
Ultimately, this will change the course of the New York offensive.
The Knicks love to exploit discrepancies. For all the criticism they get for relying on one-on-ones, offense hasn’t been the problem this season. They are fifth in points per possession, better than anyone could have predicted. One reason is that Brunson was one of the NBA’s top isolation scorers. Another part is the game of Randle, whose analytically friendly shot profile and improved jump shooting changed the calculus.
But the Knicks can’t slow down the game as successfully if they don’t have their All-Star.
Maybe they try to walk more. Starting Toppin (if they choose to do so) would help with that. He’s one of the few off-ball forwards whose mere presence can affect the tempo of a game.
The Knicks already encourage their guards and wings to push after grabbing defensive boards, but often use those opportunities to force disagreements, which they then nudge in their half-court offense.
Part of the reason the final line-up against Miami was so successful was that she shot at every stop. Speeding up and down the court isn’t the Knicks’ identity, but neither is playing without Randle. They might be able to uncover an extra easy bucket or two if they crank it up a bit.
Where do the Knicks end up in the East?
Fifth place remains the most likely result. And there’s almost no way the Knicks will fall into the play-in tournament.
If they win just two of their last five games, they make the playoffs.
If the Heat lose just two of their last five games, the Knicks will make the playoffs.
If the Knicks win at least one and the Heat lose at least one, the Knicks make the playoffs.
If the Brooklyn Nets lose two and fail to reach a three-way tie with the Heat and Knicks, the Knicks will make the playoffs.
When the heat and the nets… you get the picture.
Here’s the general theme: It would take an all-time collapse for the Knicks to fall into the play-in tournament. They will almost certainly stay in fifth place.
The last five games include a roadie with the Cleveland Cavaliers; a home game against the Washington Wizards, who didn’t play Kyle Kuzma or Bradley Beal; a visit to the Indiana Pacers, who also sit many of their followers, before a matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans and closing out the season with a homer against Indiana.
Even without Randle, the Knicks will be heavy favorites in at least three of those games.
What they might look like comes in a first-round playoff series… let’s wait until we know more about Randle’s injury.
Does this hurt Randle’s All-NBA chances?
As reported in our survey of 39 media representatives, quantity is Randle’s best case. In the age of stress management, he hadn’t missed a game all season. But it’s so late on the schedule that sitting for the last five games probably won’t be a big deal in voters’ eyes.
Of the 17 forwards who received votes over the past week, only three have a chance of catching Randle in total minutes. He averages 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists on 46-34-76 shooting.
Randle finished second in the poll. I would imagine his shot at the All-NBA is still good.
(Photo by Julius Randle and Jimmy Butler: Brad Penner / USA Today)