Ukraine’s counteroffensive is imminent. If we don’t know where or when this will happen, Kiev soon intends to regain its territories passed under Russian control, as it has announced in recent weeks. The Ukrainian army had already successfully carried out similar attacks in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in September 2022.
Kiev has received several shipments of Western military equipment in recent days and has no hesitation in publicizing this as well this tweet from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry published on March 27 But the delivery of the first heavy armored vehicles by the United States, the United Kingdom or even Germany “will not be enough to achieve an important victory”, affirms the specialist Michel Goya.
On the sidelines of a symposium organized by the Jean Jaurès Foundation on Thursday, March 30, the historian and soldier, former naval colonel, answered questions from France 24 on the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive.
France 24: What is the Ukrainian counter-offensive announced for this spring?
Michael Goya: The Ukrainians are forced to carry out major offensives, they cannot afford to wage a systematic war, a nibble war like the Russians. Kiev must achieve great victories as soon as possible, to liberate the maximum of the occupied territories while causing as much damage as possible to the Russian army.
For this, the Ukrainian army must break through the front line and dislocate the Russian equipment. He needs victories like September’s in Kharkov province or Kherson. Now the Ukrainians have to advance to Melitopol (in the Zaporizhya region in the south-east) and to Starobilsk (in the Luhansk region in the east) and very badly to the enemy.
For this you need a large concentration of resources, of forces in a certain area – at least ten brigades. Eventually they will be stopped and then they will have to renew their attacks again to get three or four victories like in September. A single offensive will not be enough to achieve the strategic goal of liberating all areas (under Russian control, ed.).
Will supplies of Western equipment be enough for Kiev to achieve its goals?
It’s not just about hardware. The equipment provided by the West – main battle tanks, combat and infantry vehicles, mobile artillery – allows Kiev to form cohesive, solid combat units that will eventually serve as spearheads for the offensive.
But with what we provide, the Ukrainians can probably build three or four brigades, not much more. This will not be enough to get a meaningful victory. Not satisfied with this, Kiev is also reconstituting other forces. At least ten brigades are required for an offensive to be effective, as was the case at Kharkiv and Kherson. The Russian defense line is perhaps stronger now than it was in September, which means Ukrainians will need even more resources.
In addition to the quantity of soldiers, when conducting offensive operations, the qualitative aspect also counts: it is complicated, you need to coordinate a lot of means, you need several skills, staffs … Do the Ukrainians have the ability to reach this level? Skills and expertise required? It’s a real question.
If successful, what consequences can this offensive have for the rest of the war? ?
In the event of a Ukrainian offensive, there are two options. Either that fails, and then you get into a situation where the Ukrainians are unable to break through the front line, resulting in a frozen situation on the ground. Either Kiev succeeds, and that leads to instability in the war.
In the event of a victory in the Zaporizhia region or the Luhansk region, Russia cannot remain idle, especially since we will begin to approach sensitive political areas – the separatist republics of Donbass and Crimea. The Ukrainian offensive can only provoke Russian reactions, which will compensate for any victories of Kiev on the ground.
This particularly affects new human mobilizations – a tipping point that began with partial mobilizations at the end of September. Pandora’s box is now open: we do not know what can prevent Moscow from mobilizing another 300,000 men, 600,000 or even a million if necessary. From this step there are no more limits – except material ones for the equipment and training, because these people cannot be turned into capable soldiers in the blink of an eye.
Why are several Ukrainian offensives necessary?
We can imagine the scenario of a Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhya province, which would lead to a Russian debacle and a collapse of all of Ukraine. Suddenly, it would become much easier for the Ukrainians militarily, and victory would be possible as far as the Donbass and Crimean republics. But this scenario is unlikely in my opinion.
The Ukrainian offensive will stop after a while. We cannot advance hundreds of kilometers in the front line. You need supplies, logistics and fit men – but since these are often exhausted from the fighting, you need to have enough to be able to carry out relief missions. In September, the Ukrainians retook Kharkiv, but the Russians were able to stop them at Luhansk.
It is likely that the Ukrainian army will achieve success, but it will not be strategic in the sense of winning everything back. It will therefore have to renew its attacks, but the Russians still have resources, not to mention intimidation or a possible nuclear escalation. There is always the danger of nuclear blackmail or even acting out. But using this weapon would have a huge political cost for Moscow.