What is the significance of Finland’s membership of NATO? Could Russia respond violently to accession? Questions and answers about a historical event.
Finland will be accepted into NATO with a festive ceremony on Tuesday. After an accession process of less than a year, the Nordic country with 5.5 million inhabitants will become the 31st member of the largest defense alliance in the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin may have expected different developments when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Questions and Answers on a Historic Day:
What is the significance of Finland’s membership of NATO?
For the other alliance states, Finland’s membership initially means an extended obligation to provide assistance. If Finland, which borders Russia, were attacked by its neighbour, it would be seen as an attack on all NATO countries – and all allies would be called upon to lend their support. Finland’s membership will extend the direct border between NATO and Russia by some 1,340 kilometers, more than doubling it.
At the same time, the alliance founded in 1949 will become larger and more powerful with Finland’s accession. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the northernmost country in the EU has well-equipped and trained armed forces and is currently investing in more than 60 state-of-the-art F-35 fighters. Due to Finland’s geographical location, the NATO Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Estonia, for example, could be defended much better in the event of a Russian attack.
What does this mean in numbers?
According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Finland is already one of the countries that invests two percent of its gross domestic product in defense every year. This important NATO directive is not being met by Germany and several other alliance partners. The size of the Finnish armed forces is given by the IISS as 19,000 men and women, plus about 238,000 reservists. To protect land borders, Finland has, among other things, about 100 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks and hundreds of artillery pieces.
What does NATO’s northern expansion mean for Russia?
From Stoltenberg’s point of view, Finland’s admission is a clear sign of the failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy. Putin declared on Monday that he went to war against Ukraine with the stated aim of having a smaller NATO presence in Europe and preventing further expansion of the alliance. With Finland’s accession, NATO’s border with Russia will now more than double. Putin is getting the exact opposite of what he wanted.
At the same time, NATO emphasizes that there is no reason for Russia to feel threatened by northern expansion. The alliance also contradicts representations that the alliance actually wants to encircle Russia. According to NATO information, only 1,215 kilometers of the more than 20,000 kilometers of Russian land border are currently on the border with NATO countries. Even adding another 1,340 kilometers, the common border is relatively small.
How does Moscow see Finland joining NATO?
Kremlin chief Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he has a major problem with NATO expansion into Russia. Moscow has reacted according to the accession process in recent months. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized that a neighbor joining NATO would severely damage Russian-Finnish relations. “Russia will be forced to respond appropriately – in military-technical and other terms – to take into account threats to its national security,” the ministry said in a May statement.
Could Russia respond violently to accession?
In NATO, such a step is considered extremely unlikely. On the one hand, the Russian armed forces are tied up by the war against Ukraine and, in some cases, are severely weakened. On the other hand, Putin would also mess with the other 30 NATO countries. However, NATO considers it quite conceivable that Russia could, for example, launch cyberattacks against targets in Finland or try to alarm the Finnish population with increased air force activities. Furthermore, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the National Security Council and former president, has threatened to station nuclear weapons in Russia’s Baltic Sea region.
What does membership mean for Finland?
For many decades, Finland has managed an uneasy balance between East and West: in view of its extremely long border with Russia, the country has tried to maintain good relations with the giant empire to the east. At the same time, however, it built ever closer ties with the West. Finland joined the EU in 1995 and was the only Nordic country to subsequently introduce the euro. The Finns worked together with NATO as a close partner – but without severing relatively good contacts with Moscow.
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine brought this East-West balance to an abrupt end. After many years of military non-alignment, Finland applied for NATO membership along with Sweden in May 2022, and the Finns were accepted in record time. This step is almost as important as joining the EU, political adviser Risto EJ Penttilä told Finnish radio. “EU membership meant that Finland was part of Europe and the West, but at the same time we were outside NATO,” he said. “We are now integrated into Europe, but through this NATO membership we also have a strong connection to the US.”
How is membership completed?
According to the Finnish Presidential Office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, will deliver the certificate of membership. A solemn ceremony is scheduled for 15:35 in front of NATO headquarters in Brussels, at which the Finnish flag will also be raised for the first time. In addition to Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, the foreign ministers of the other 30 member states are also expected to attend the ceremony.
What’s next for Sweden?
The Swedes really wanted to join NATO at the same time as their Finnish neighbors – but nothing will come of it. The reason for this is that Turkey still does not want to agree to Sweden’s accession to NATO and Hungary has yet to ratify it. Ankara complains that Turkey sees insufficient action against “terrorist organizations” and wants to force concessions. Budapest disagrees with Sweden’s statements about the rule of law in Hungary, among other things. It is not yet clear when the two countries will also open the door to NATO for Sweden.
Stoltenberg said on Monday of the lockdown that he was absolutely confident that Sweden would also become a member. The country will not be left alone and can already count on NATO’s reaction to threats or attacks against the country.
(APA)