2023 NFL Draft: Reassessing every first-round QB pick over the past 15 years, from Trevor Lawrence to Joe Flacco – CBS Sports

The 2023 NFL Draft is upon us, and no position will command more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt several will try to unearth the next Superstar on April 27th.

This year it is widely expected that no fewer than four signal callers will come off the board on the first night of the draft. Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis have all been forecast as first-rounders, with Stroud and Young reportedly fighting for first place overall.

What can history tell us about how many of those inevitable day-one QB investments will actually pay off? We’re glad you asked. We’ve reviewed every single first-round QB pick over the past 15 years and assigned “grades” to each one:

Some of the QBs straddle the lines more than others, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t partially excuse some of the misses for the times they struggled (you can’t control where you get drafted, after all). . But let this summary paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with chasing a star QB:

2022

Pickett had the misfortune of operating as a 12-game rookie starter on a sluggish offense with shoddy protection, but he showed more than enough toughness and pocket attitude, especially down the stretch. Pittsburgh wanted to be a robust old-school starter, and if that remains the case, it could be difficult to gauge his ceiling.

2021

Is it too soon to rule Laurentius a home run? Maybe, but he passed the eye test with flying colors in 2022, his first among a legitimate NFL staff. And few things speak to long-term QB promises more than an incorrigible electric arm he’s got. Wilson23, may later bounce back thanks to his slippery athleticism, but two painfully unpredictable years later, the Jets are already replacing him with a nearly 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers. lance is a completely unknown player who displays all physical abilities but manages only eight appearances in two seasons plagued by injuries. fields arguably deserves “home run” status if Lawrence gets it by showing power with his MVP-level legs in 2022, but he’s still a raw decider through the air. Jones was a fair mid-range passer as a rookie, but has regressed in poor conditions and requires a fairly friendly setup.

2020

Building is undeniably one of the best two or three QBs in the game, balancing all mobility issues with razor-sharp precision and pocket presence; Two appearances in AFC title games in three years is proof. Tagovailoa has entered 2022 with much-improved confidence, but like Mac Jones in the AFC East, his pinpoint accuracy pales outside of the script and he has major medical concerns. Herbert is the overall physical package with a ridiculous production (94 TDs, 35 INTs) despite a quiet, albeit young, post-season resume. Love follows in Aaron Rodgers’ footsteps and takes over from Green Bay after three years on the bench; If his arm is as energetic as he looked in the short work of 2022, he’ll be a fun watch.

2019

A year or two back murray might have been a home run pairing a rocket arm with scurrying legs. Its reliability and availability have since dropped; often injured, there is perhaps no more volatile talent at the position. Jones 2022 went from a clumsy victim of circumstance to an underestimated double threat, and now the Giants are betting his efficiency and mobility will grow with a better supporting cast. The late Haskins made just 13 starts in two seasons before his demotion and release.

2018

Maifeld is representative of this year’s class: scattershot. He reintroduced the Browns to QB Moxie and reinvented himself as a poster child for a run-first offense, but eventually left the team after four battered and revenue-prone seasons. darnold endured a steeper dip in shy tendencies for a porous Jets team. everyonehas since gone in the opposite direction, starting out as a wayward gunslinger and evolving into a big-armed, ripped-body MVP guy, though his style is inherently riskier than most. roses never stood a chance and flopped as a slim, limited pocket pass before Arizona dumped him after a single season. Jackson is one of the standout talents in the NFL; He wasn’t the most tenacious and he struggled in brief playoff appearances, but his world-class speed has kept Baltimore afloat even as the team failed to surround him with steady pass catchers.

2017

Trubisky He never received much help from his staff, but his ill-timed decisions helped accelerate the move to backup jobs elsewhere. watson once looked like a budding superstar, and he still has the tools to be a top 10 pocket passer, but he was Houston’s starter for just three and a half seasons and sat out all of 2021 while seeking a trade and faced dozens of lawsuits alleging off-field misconduct. Mahomes is already one of the all-time greatest draft picks, amassing two Super Bowl wins, two NFL MVPs and five straight AFC title games as the league’s acrobatic setter under center.

2016

Goff He basically enjoyed three careers in one with the Rams, opening unhappily amid a rebuild and then showing All-Pro precision for Sean McVay’s first Super Bowl bid before falling behind under pressure. wentz is a tragic case of what could have been; His 2017 MVP candidacy was truly dynamic and helped pave the way for Nick Fole’s ultimate Super Bowl triumph, but injuries never fully reined in his aggressiveness. Lynch made just four starts in Denver before retiring.

2015

Winstons gung-ho approach has doomed him more than helped; He threw 88 picks in 70 starts before the Buccaneers turned to Tom Brady and instantly won a Super Bowl. Mariota also made it five years at his original club but he too was happily carried out in the end and struggled to stay in the line-up while leaning on his legs. Both have since settled in as No. 2 veterans.

2014

Bortles flirted with legitimacy, threw 35 TDs in his sophomore season and helped the Jaguars to an AFC title game in 2017, but his aggressiveness resulted in 75 picks in 73 starts. man target flared up on and off the field after a rough collegiate career, making just eight frenetic starts in two seasons before his rough exit. bridge water is by far the most successful of the trio to date and has carved out a long run as a journeyman placeholder, but he only managed two safe but totally unspectacular seasons, leaning on Adrian Peterson before a knee injury derailed his Minnesota future.

2013

Widely regarded as the only promising thin class QB, Manuel struggled with injuries and inaccuracies, and quickly lost starting duties to Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. He went 6-11 and made just 17 starts in four seasons before moving as a backup.

2012

You could argue Luck is closer to a “mixed result” considering persistent shoulder injuries and his abrupt retirement at age 29 deprived the Colts of a potential Hall of Fame career, but when he was active and healthy, Peyton Manning’s replacement was one of the best field generals in the world game. He oversaw four playoff trips and one AFC title game appearance with banging air production. Gripping was a rookie phenomenon thanks to his smooth climbing, but quickly fizzled out after knee injuries, making way for the more reliable Kirk Cousins. fir hill resurrected his career with the Titans, but only after an injury-plagued seven-year slog in Miami. weedwho came in at age 28, threw 26 picks in 20 starts in just two seasons with Cleveland.

2011

Newton could potentially fit into a “mixed result” given he was a struggling, underperformer passer in the second half of his first nine years with the Panthers. However, his first five years were groundbreaking for Carolina, culminating in a 2015 MVP run and a Super Bowl bid as an outsized double threat. Injuries were even harder too lockerwho never played more than 11 games in a season and retired after just four years. Gabbert got little protection in Jacksonville and saw his playing time decrease for three consecutive seasons – his only three with the Jags. Ponder had 36 picks in 36 starts for Minnesota.

2010

Bradford is one of the hardest to separate from his circumstances; Injuries behind a terrible Rams front destroyed his knees and shortened his St. Louis tenure to three-and-a-half active seasons, but when upright he was an ascending pocket passer who kept a poor team in the mix. Tebov had real flashes of something special and briefly tied the league up with bulldozer legs and inexplicable late-game exploits, but he never got the rhythm to throw the ball in just two seasons with the Broncos.

2009

Stafford never fully overcome Detroit’s shortcomings, which required a late-career move to the All-Star Rams to win a title, but he gave the Lions mostly-above-average gunslingers for 12 years, eclipsing 4,000 yards eight times. Sanchez got a lot of help from a vaunted Jets defense during his two playoff runs; He was sloppy but held on occasionally in four years as QB1. baron teased top-10 potential as a sophomore winner only to throw 66 picks in 59 starts for Bucs’ rebuild.

2008

Ryan was on the losing side of the biggest Super Bowl comeback in NFL history, but he’s long been one of the main reasons Atlanta could even dream of a title, as he gave the Falcons a steady if unspectacular hand for 14 seasons . Flacko gets even more ridiculous for being even more of a throwback pocket passer and ultimately embracing an ultra-conservative approach, but his big arm was instrumental in the Ravens’ 2012 Super Bowl run and he’s still captained six different playoff Runs 11 seasons in Baltimore.

final balance

In the last 15 years there has been 45 QBs selected in the first round. Here is the final bill:

If you combine home runs and mixed results, that’s 17 out of 45 (38%) who made at least a tangible positive impact. That’s not necessarily a terrible hit rate given the volatility of picks at each position. But it’s not great! And it obviously encompasses a wide range of outcomes; Mark Sanchez and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their success was short-lived in their original houses, and yet the latter was far more prolific during his stint as a Texas starter.

As you might have guessed, the biggest advantage is that it’s much harder to hit Superstars under the middle, even in the first round. In the last 15 years the average was approx three First-round QB picks per year. So that’s just our guess 0.7 one of which will be home run picks. At least now 1.3 per year turn out to be clear failures.

All in all, if you’re preparing to go all out for the next sub-middle hotshot, make sure you’ve done your homework and/or make sure your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support it ! Otherwise, you’ll likely be looking to take another swing at the position in a few years and start the cycle all over again.