BERLIN – “We are certainly on the eve of a major offensive by Ukraine, the main target of which will probably be the Sea of Azov to cut the connection with Crimea,” says Dmitry Suslov, a Kremlin adviser who heads the Center for European and International Studies the Moscow School of Economics, one of the most important institutes in which Russian foreign policy is thought out.
And aren’t you worried?
«From the Russian point of view, the West is betting heavily on the success of the offensive, both for military reasons, since the amount of arms and ammunition it can deliver to Kiev after the deliveries of the last few months is running out, and for political reasons support for the Ukrainian cause in western societies is waning, especially in the US in the face of the presidential elections. For example, it is by no means a matter of course that Congress will approve new funds for Ukraine in the summer when the current ones have expired. In other words, the West has a very strong interest in the Ukrainian offensive being successful. If this does not happen, in the second half of the year Kiev would be in a much weaker position and then Russia would start its offensive».
But hasn’t he already done it in these two months?
“The Western narrative that Moscow tried and failed the Donbass offensive is false. It was not a large-scale test in the traditional sense, but more pressure without the massive deployment of ground forces. Small units were deployed, and there were no real maneuvers. Russia has applied pressure to weaken the Ukrainians and reduce their offensive potential. Also, let’s remember that Russia is still using detainees while Ukraine is using regular troops.”
Given last month’s deliveries, from German and British tanks to Polish Mig-29s and ammunition, Ukraine has objectively strengthened. Doesn’t that worry the Russian commandos?
“We must neither exaggerate nor underestimate Ukraine’s military potential. But let’s look at the numbers: so far, according to our estimates, 57 new tanks have been delivered out of the 300 promised, including the German Leopard 2 and the British Challenger. Even if they all came, which won’t happen until the end of the year, there wouldn’t be many. Even taking into account the rest – tanks, howitzers, ammunition and fighters – the Ukrainian is a serious threat. But I don’t think these are the “magic weapons” that can make a difference on the ground. The more important question is another one: what happens if Ukrainians fail despite all this Western help? If all this arsenal is unsuccessfully thrown into the oven? The West won’t have much to replace it. Ukraine will find itself almost exposed. While Russia, as some Western media correctly estimated, will mobilize 400,000 new volunteers by the end of the year and will be ready to launch a real offensive».
From what you say, don’t give up a chance to negotiate.
“The probability is zero. The West will not allow Ukraine to enter or participate in negotiations before the spring offensive. We interpret the Western position that if the Ukrainian attack is successful and Crimea is threatened, the situation is conducive to negotiations. But if that doesn’t happen, Russia won’t allow negotiations before its counteroffensive in the fall. So I don’t expect anything on the negotiating front until 2023.”
The new Russian foreign policy doctrine presented by Putin and Lavrov describes the US as the “main source of the threat” to Russia’s security. Is it confirmation that every bridge has now burned down?
“First of all, I think that the crucial passage in this document is the one in which Russia defines itself not only as a state, but also as an “independent civilization” different from all others. Second, the document correctly describes the state of the world in which, on the one hand, the collective West is waging a global hybrid war against Russia, which it wants to weaken and ultimately destroy as a power, and, on the other hand, see fundamental and rapid changes towards the creation of a multipolar world in which new Actors beyond China are emerging, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, other Asian countries with few exceptions, the African ones. This leads to a double foreign policy action by Russia: on the one hand to wage a war with the West, on the other hand to strengthen cooperation with the rest of the world, the non-Western world, which is the majority. There is a new hierarchy in our strategic interests that puts neighboring areas first, followed by China and India, then by the Islamic and African worlds, and only at the bottom by the West, which is seen as an adversary. Of course we differentiate between Europe and the Anglo-Saxon West, the hard core. If European countries would change their policies, we would be ready to resume cooperation».
But with the war in Ukraine you did the opposite: Finland joined NATO yesterday.
“I would also like to mention the indictment by the International Criminal Court against the Russian President, which excludes any possibility of normalizing relations with Europe in the near future.”
What countermeasures has the Kremlin announced following Helsinki’s entry into the Atlantic Pact?
“If there were to be a NATO-Russia war from now on, unlike in the past, Finnish territory would be the central arena of the conflict. So Russia needs to prepare, for example by militarizing its north-west. The extent of this reinforcement on the northwestern border will depend on what we see in Finland: whether there will be medium or long-range missiles, NATO bases and troops, nuclear weapons. We will react to every movement in the same way.’
Putin admitted for the first time in recent days that the Russian economy is feeling the effects of the sanctions. So, contrary to what has been said so far, they do have an effect. Will this have an impact on political decisions?
“Absolutely not. I think that Russia’s economic development under the conditions of a severe embargo has been successful so far. It can be said that Russia’s economic performance has been better than its military. Admittedly, Western sanctions will have a cumulative effect and hamper robust growth. But the general perception is that they have already failed in trying to defeat Russia, which has also been able to adapt thanks to the role played by the non-Western world, from China downwards, which has refused to follow the dictates of the Western alliance.” …