Strategists, like everyone else, consult the weather every day. This is an aspect that can significantly influence the choice. Today’s point begins in “heaven”.
The mud
David Helms, a former Air Force meteorologist who is following the conflict from a “climate” perspective and reposting the data on social media, provided his forecasts. In the southern sector, the terrain tends to become drier within 1-2 weeks, while on the eastern front it remains very wet and muddy until mid-May. If the Ukrainians take these parameters into account, they could launch an offensive in the southern sector towards Melitopol and other targets. In fact, it is difficult to move heavy vehicles in the muddy mix, this Rasputitsa, which has already blocked the advance of Russian vehicles on Kiev: videos and photos circulated in recent weeks clearly show this. However, there are many assumptions on the table. Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said: Few people, between 3 and 5, know when and where the attack will take place.
Statements that are part of a tactic, as well as references to Crimea, target or other of Kiev’s plans. The liveliest fire burns for the time being in the east, the invaders continue in small steps in the heart of Bakhmut (or rather what is left), also deploying fresh units, while Vuhledar continues to be the second ossuary. With consequences for the hierarchical chain: Moscow would have decided to replace General Rustan Muradov, who was guilty of excessive losses, with some destroyed detachments. The ebb and flow of Russian officers coming and going on the battlefield is a constant. And the reference is not always clear, since it is about “power games”. We find the same ups and downs in the judgments of analysts who focus on the occupation army’s behavior and the defenders’ ability to win back what was lost.
File Weapons
The path of arms can become even more tortuous when Europeans are involved. Politico Europe website has revealed disagreements over the (approved) EU plan to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Kiev within 12 months. There are two reasons for the slowdown. France wants them to be manufactured by companies within the Union and, along with the Cyprus-Greece axis, opposes buying them from Turkey. In addition, there are doubts about the factories’ ability to stay on schedule. Officials are working hard to overcome the obstacles. Instead, the march will be dispatched from Warsaw, the new Sparta in the heart of Europe. The delivery of new supplies to the resistance was announced: mortars on vehicles and a number of Mig 29 fighters. Poland also signed an agreement with Ukraine on joint production of 152-mm shells at plants in Poland protected from raids .
Meanwhile, the United States is in the process of inaugurating a large depot on Polish territory with materiel, ammunition and sufficient funds to equip a US brigade. It is a logistical pre-positioning, soldiers only come when necessary. The barracks in Powidz are similar to the bunkers created long ago by the Allies in Norway. Finland, which has just joined NATO, has announced the purchase of Israel’s David’s Sling missile defense system: the contract will cost over $340 million. A contraption capable of repelling missiles, cruise vectors, and other threats.