With the opening week of the 2023 season in the books and the twins having Thursday off due to the postponement of the home opener, it seems like the perfect time for a series of early observations based on a far too small sample.
Despite losing their last two games, the Twins started 2023 with a victorious road trip through Kansas City and Miami. The starting lineup was red hot, as were Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton at-bats.
With that in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman are here to offer their far too early take on what happened in the first seven days of the season.
Hayes: As disappointing as it is for the Twins to lose their last two games in Miami, the first road trip was largely a success. It’s hard to get upset about a 4-2 start when it could have been better because the team’s starting lineup was excellent.
I knew Pablo López was good, but I didn’t know he had 97 mph in his pocket. Perhaps that was because he faced his former team in Miami on Wednesday, but López hit 97mph six times. From 2020 to 2022, López hit 97 mph five times, according to Baseball Savant.
Consider the development of his swinging slider, a field he had never thrown before joining the Twins in January, one that has generated 17 swings and misses on 48 fields, and early results on this trade are looking pretty good , regardless of what Luis does Arraez does for the Marlins.
minstrel: It’s only two starts, but López rightfully looks like a pitcher making the leap from very good to great. Like you said his fastball is 2-3 mph harder. And his move is always an elite pitch. But the Sweeper’s rapid development is a perfect example of why the Twins felt his combination of raw footage and brainpower took him far beyond what he showed in Miami.
Five weeks ago he was tinkering with the sweeper, just hoping it might be useful enough to give hitters a different look every now and then. He threw it 19 times on opening day and liked what he saw so much that he threw it 29 times on Wednesday, more than his fastball or changeup. If the sweeper is anywhere near as good and consistent as it has looked so far, López is on the verge of a breakout season. He made a damn good first impression.
Unfortunately, the line-up, closed by Marlin’s left-hander Jesús Luzardo on Wednesday, drew some attention away from López’s similarly dominant start. It’s just one game and Luzardo will dominate many lineups this year, but it’s been a long time since the Twins have consistently blown away lefties despite a lineup filled with top-flight righties.
They led MLB in OPS against lefties in 2019 but have only ranked 22nd since, despite representing righties Buxton, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Correa, Josh Donaldson, Jose Miranda, Miguel Sanó and Mitch Garver, among others. This season’s roster is designed to crush lefties, with Correa, Buxton and Miranda surrounded by roleplayers like Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer, who were successful against lefties but barely a match for Luzardo.
It sure is early days, but it was also hard to come to terms with the fact that there are now four seasons.
Hayes: Agreed. As of Wednesday, the Twins righties only had 43 plate appearances against lefties, so the sample is still extremely small. But Wednesday was disheartening.
The Twins were clearly hoping that was an issue they had worked out this offseason with Farmer, who had a .948 OPS against the southpaws last season, and Solano, who has been very good against them since 2019. Obviously we give the club 75+ plate appearances but it’s something to monitor.
Oddly enough, one of their best hitters against lefties to date has been a lefty, Trevor Larnach, who is 3-on-9 with four RBIs in these matchups. In the past month few bats in the lineup have been as good as Larnachs, who is hungry and looking polished. I wrote it over the weekend – Larnach’s game has never been a problem when he’s healthy. His injury last June was one of the first of many devastating blows the twins would have to deal with in 2022.
He had just found his strength when he sustained a core muscle injury in June last year and never returned to the first division. Encouragingly, when Larnach was struggling with a groin injury this spring, he communicated well with new athletic coach Nick Paparesta. They devised a plan and Larnach was back a week later. Since then it has been on fire.
minstrel: I’ve always believed in Larnach’s bat. He strikes when he’s healthy, but he’s been so beat up over the past two years that it’s easy to forget him. They need his left-handed power the most right now and I continue to think he’s a much better defensive outfielder than he’s given credit for.
Speaking of injuries clouding the picture, I had big health questions about Kenta Maeda and to a lesser extent Tyler Mahle coming out of spring training. They were both extremely impressive in Miami and answered every question and then some.
Mahle’s inconsistent speed was the biggest clue to his shoulder problems last season, but he threw 49 fastballs on Monday for a total of 83 pitches at an average speed of 93.8 mph and a high of 95.4. Seven strikeouts, one walk and very little hard contact. He looked just like the strong No. 2 starter the twins thought they could get from the Reds last August and it’s easy to imagine a healthy grind will have a big impact.
And yet Maeda’s first start was perhaps even more impressive considering he was back on the pitch for the first time in 19 months at the age of 35 following Tommy John surgery. Speed isn’t really an issue for Maeda as he wasn’t throwing that hard before the surgery but his control was vastly improved compared to what we saw in spring training and his glide was especially great. It was good to remember how much fun it is to watch Maeda roll.
With the Astros, White Sox and Yankees next on the schedule, there are bigger tests ahead, but it would have been hard for the rotation to look better after six games.
Hayes: The rotation was excellent. And yes, the Royals and Marlins are not the biggest threats. But I thought the common stuff the group has shown gives some optimism that they have staying power. Maeda sandwiched between Mahle and López is a scary thought given how much of a pitcher he is compared to the brute force of the others.
The rotation as a whole looks like it could be a lot of fun to watch. And would you look at that — I bet there were a few fans who were outraged when López stayed in the game to start the seventh inning on Wednesday. Rocco Baldelli said in February he wanted rotation to be a strength and intended to run the group differently. Her makeup and ability to delve deeper into games should allow him to do so.
As hot as the rotation was, the offense struggled early on. Some of that faces the front end of two rotations twice, including Sandy Alcantara. Some of these are that April teams often struggle to hit when the pitchers are way ahead of the hitters. Part of that is Correa struggling to score early.
Here’s the thing: It’s six games. Correa will eventually get going and the offense will thrive if he and Buxton play to their full potential. The group could also get a big boost if Jorge Polanco returns. I really like what Larnach and Miranda can do in the middle and Gallo looks like he could be fun. But adding Polanco to that mix – if he can ever get there – would really expand the lineup.
minstrel: I have to remind myself of this every season, so now I’m reminding everyone else: Analyzing the first six games of an MLB season (3.7 percent of the game schedule) is like analyzing the first half of an NFL team’s very first game (2.9 percent of the game plan). It’s worth doing, especially when there’s everything to analyze right now, but meaningful insights and trends with staying power won’t be in abundance.
It’s so good to have baseball back. I can’t wait to be back at Target Field, to sit next to you and over-analyze this stuff in person.
(Photo by Pablo López: Jim Rassol / USA Today)