Want this content delivered straight to your inbox every day for free? Login here.
Time to settle these MVP debates. let’s count
55(ish) hours of mayhem
Five things to see this weekend
The 2022/23 regular season is coming to an end and we still have so many things up in the air. We’re down to 21 teams for 20 postseason slots. The Dallas Mavericks are the only outside team that still has a shot at making the play-in tournament.
Let’s rank the top four things yet to figure out, plus a fun placeholder:
4. Will the Wolves end up in the 9-10 match? Minnesota traded its future for Rudy Gobert to fix its present, and the Wolves are still at 40-40, ninth in the West and hoping for a small fortune to come their way. It’s been a poor but resilient season for Wolves. On Saturday they play San Antonio in what should be an easy win but they have lost to Spurs twice this season. They play in New Orleans on Sunday and that could determine if they have a safety net in the play-in tournament.
Wolves are 1-1 with New Orleans and this game will determine the tiebreak. They’re a game behind the Pels, who play the Knicks tonight. If Minnesota beats the Pelicans, they can still survive if they lose their first play-in game.
3. Can we get Kevin Durant against the Warriors? In a word? Please. In three words? Hopefully. The Warriors are looking to hold off the Clippers and Lakers in this latest push. The Clippers and Lakers both hold the tiebreaker above them, so they really need to beat Sacramento tonight and Portland on Sunday. That would guarantee them at least sixth place in the West. They could move up to fifth place, but the Clippers have to lose to Portland or the Suns (the last day they have nothing to play). So the Warriors need some help here, especially with the Suns putting their stars against the Lakers in the second night of a back-to-back tonight.
The Warriors need to get past the Clippers to get a first-round series with Phoenix. It’s doable, but they need help.
2. Will Dallas make it? The good news for the Mavs is that they have two games left to win — home games against Chicago and San Antonio. Though they’ve been pretty rough since taking on Kyrie Irving, the Mavs are still too talented and star-driven to play in those two games without feeling like they should win. And yet…they are at the mercy of the rest of the NBA.
Let’s say they go about their business and win both games. They need the Thunder to lose to a Memphis team that probably has nothing to play for on Sunday.
1. Can the Lakers avoid the play-in? The Lakers worried all season about getting healthy and putting the right mix of players on the floor. They finally nailed it and figured it out, but this week’s loss to the Clippers put them at the mercy of the universe. They don’t control their own destiny. You play Phoenix and you have to hope that the Suns decide to put their main characters. Then they play against a jazz team that recently gave up and only has lottery balls in focus.
The Lakers are at least better positioned in this play-in tournament than they were two years ago as long as they are healthy. Coming in as the seventh seed, winning, and then trying to beat Memphis in the first round? You can tell yourself that. But they need so much help this weekend to get up to sixth place and reignite the rivalry with the kings.
WILD CARD: Will the Knicks ever finish on a top-three offense? This is a little difficult to find out on the fly, but we know the Knicks have an elite offense this season. NBA.com/stats has the Knicks in a three-way tie with Denver and Philadelphia for third-best offense this season. Basketball reference has the Knicks with it the third best offense of all timejust ahead of Philly, Boston and Denver (and Portland in 2021).
These aren’t consistent between the two locations because they calculate possession differently, but still, the Knicks could end up with the third-best offensive season in NBA history. They face the Pelicans (sixth in defense) and Indiana (26th in defense) for the remainder of the season.
The latest from Shams
Injury updates on Middleton, Zion
With the end of the regular season, a few injury updates on notable players:
- Buck’s star Chris Middleton Underwent an MRI on his ailing right knee on Thursday and the results came back clean, according to sources.Middleton is expected to use the next week or so to rehabilitate the knee hoping to be ready for the playoffs starting April 15th. But Middleton contributed 15.1 points, 4.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s been a significant part of the Bucks’ success in recent seasons.
Middleton has been struggling with knee problems that kept him out for extended periods earlier this season. The Bucks got some good news this time, but that definitely got me thinking about his honest and candid conversation earlier in the year with our own Eric Nehm about how tough it was for him to rehabilitate.
- In the Western Conference, pelicans play the leading role Zion Williamson – out since January 2 with a thigh strain – is He is unlikely to return to action in next week’s play-in tournament, sources tell me. The team have been wary of Williamson’s comeback process as he continues his rehab process.
The Pelicans are currently 41-39 and in the eighth seed. They have the same record as the Lakers, who hold the tie break in seventh place in the top play-in spot. They’re both a game behind the Warriors for the last direct playoff spot.
Back to you Zach.
Are the Heats back?
The Heat completely destroyed the 76ers 129-101 last night in a game the Sixers didn’t really need. Miami needed it, just in case some fortune finds its way, to help it sneak into the top six. Brooklyn would have to lose their last two games (Orlando and Philly), and Miami would have to beat Washington and Orlando to snag the No. 6.
Even as the Heat’s disappointing season keeps them in the play-in tournament, a performance like last night seems consistent with an encouraging Miami trend. This team can really score again. That was missing all season. The Heat inexplicably missed wide-open 3-point shots throughout the season. And their offense struggled tremendously.
In their last 16 games (10-6), the Heat’s offense has been on fire. They are sixth in the NBA in offensive scoring at this stage and have 118.8 points per 100 possessions with the second-highest true hit percentage. In their last 64 games (33-31), the Heat are ranked 26th in offensive standings (110.7). They’ve gone from 35.0 percent of their wide-open 3-pointers to over 45.0 percent in that 16-game streak.
Well, the defense has been poor in the last 16 games (118.0) but we know they can lock defensively. It’s the encouraging trend of actually getting the good looks you create with offense and ball movement at the right time. It looks a lot like the team we saw a season ago when they were the No. 1 seed and made the Eastern Conference Finals.
More Miami: Jason Quick examines Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s competitiveness and compassion.
More from last night:
- Can Phoenix pull off a bad win? The Suns did that by beating Denver last night. The Nuggets didn’t play their starters, and the Suns still narrowly eclipsed the win. But the Suns are 8-0 with Kevin Durant playing.
- The Jazz were officially eliminated out of the play-in tournament with their 114-98 loss to OKC.
bounce passes
John Hollinger knows who his MVP is this season.
Mike Vorkunov has some thoughts on what’s coming in the new CBA.
Excellent profile on Quentin Grimes by Jackson Frank from DIME.
Nekias Duncan has five young players to keep an eye on including Markelle Fultz who plays like a big man.
Vibe check via The Athletic NBA Show.
Wait, LeBron James is now a Tier 2 player?! Who is in level 1?!
Screen Game (All Times Eastern)
- Main screen: Suns Lakers (10:30 p.m. NBA TV). The Lakers need to win if they want to avoid the play-in.
- Second screen: 76ers-Hawks (7:30 p.m.). The Hawks have a chance to go three games over .500 for the first time since Dec. 2.
- League Pass Game of the Night: Warriors Kings (10 p.m.). The Warriors can’t afford to drop this one and let the Lakers catch them.
- Check the full schedule here.
(Photo by Kyrie Irving: Dale Zanine / USA Today)