A vast trove of leaked Pentagon documents suggests the US knows far more about Russia’s war campaign than Ukraine’s – despite the latter being funded with $200 billion.
The documents, leaked online in recent days, show how the Russian military is fighting in its war with Ukraine that has killed hundreds of thousands.
Intelligence agencies are believed to have extensively infiltrated the Russian military and its top spy services, offering considerable knowledge of upcoming maneuvers as well as insight into how Putin’s war went badly.
But the same cannot be said for Ukraine, according to the New York Times. The newspaper reported that “the United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than Ukrainian planning.”
US officials have allegedly been spying on Ukraine itself to try to get a picture of its military plans.
America is also unsure of the total number of Ukrainian casualties – with the documents only saying that Zelenskyy’s forces suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties and 17,500 dead.
Even then, intelligence officials say confidence in the accuracy of these numbers is low.
And it’s also unclear whether the American intelligence gathering helped Ukraine after it announced plans by the Kremlin to bomb a drone depot in Odessa days before the attack.
Leaked documents suggest the US knows more about Putin’s wartime operations than Zelenskyy’s, raising questions about the $200 billion in military aid sent to Ukraine
The United States has devoted most of its considerable espionage resources to obstructing Putin’s efforts and helping Ukraine.
But his spies have also overheard allies, including Ukraine itself, the UK, South Korea and Israel.
The Times reported that Ukraine is being spied on in hopes of getting a clearer picture of its military strategies to try to maximize its army’s effectiveness against Putin.
This is despite the US spending $200 billion on advanced military hardware and spy equipment for Ukraine, with the money credited for helping the country successfully hold off Russian advances for far longer than anyone thought necessary.
And while support for Ukraine funding remains bipartisan, news that US officials are often left in the dark could raise questions about the sheer volume of resources the White House continues to send to Eastern Europe.
The Russian flagship Moskva was blown up by Ukrainian missiles and sunk in the Black Sea last April, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of soldiers. It was seen as a major coup for Ukraine, whose armed forces have received a steady stream of accurate information about Russia that has proved devastating to Putin’s war effort
The documents offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies were most compromised and how the US obtained so much Kremlin information
The 100 pages of documents, at least some of which are believed to be correct, were leaked on a Discord server earlier this year.
They caused panic in the Pentagon and went to great lengths to find out where the leak is coming from.
Ukraine has hinted they are not real, but Pentagon officials are said to be treating them as real, exposing another schism between the US and its dear ally.
They also appear to show that intelligence has been compromised, as some reports have included real-time daily alerts on the timing and targets of the Moscow attacks – which has allowed the US to warn its Ukrainian counterparts.
The documents – although up to several months old – offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been most compromised and clues as to how the United States assembled so much classified Kremlin information.
US intelligence on Russia is said to have been so good that Ukraine was notified two days in advance of an attack on a drone depot. American spies are also said to have deeply infiltrated Russia’s GRU – the successor to the KGB – and discovered how badly Putin’s war effort is going.
While American officials have previously estimated Russian losses at around 200,000 troops, one report puts the casualties at between 189,500 and 223,000, including as many as 43,000 killed in action.
Casualties in Ukraine are believed to be lower, although US officials are reluctant to commit to a firm number.
Pentagon officials are to launch a giant probe into the leak. The leaked documents shared online — at least some of which are believed to be genuine — consist of photographs of printed sheets of paper.
Secret documents can usually only be printed using a secure method, which can make it easier for officials to find the source of the leak.
Although the Biden administration has poured nearly $200 billion into Ukraine’s military, the leak revealed that its stockpiles are severely depleted and air defense ammunition is running low
The documents, which have been posted on sites like Twitter, are marked classified and are similar to routine updates made daily by the US military’s Joint Staff but not shared publicly.
They remain online, with Twitter owner Elon Musk saying there’s little point in banning information that’s already widely shared and easy to find elsewhere, even if its moderators remove it.
They are dated February 23 to March 1 and appear to provide details on the progress of arms and equipment being shipped to Ukraine, with more specific timelines and quantities than the US is generally publicly revealing.
They are not war plans and they provide no details of a planned offensive in Ukraine. And some inaccuracies – including estimates of Russian troop deaths that are significantly lower than figures publicly stated by US officials – have led some to question the authenticity of the documents.
Assurances about the validity of the US military’s spy apparatus are further marred by revelations that America’s focus extends far beyond its Russian enemies.
Allied nations like South Korea have also reportedly been the subject of espionage by the Pentagon, raising questions about the diplomatic implications the leak could have at a time of deteriorating global relations.
The documents, released on social media sites including Twitter, Discord and Telegram, have also highlighted the devastating impact the war in Ukraine has had on both sides of the conflict.
Although the Biden administration has poured nearly $200 billion into Ukraine’s military, the leak revealed that its stockpiles are severely depleted and air defense ammunition is running low.
But with Russian forces also struggling, reports point to a renewed push backed by Western forces in the coming months.
One of the leaks, reportedly posted to Telegram, described “a secret plan for the US and NATO to prepare and equip nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the spring offensive.”
The Biden administration has not disputed the legitimacy of the leak, but has claimed that certain documents have been tampered with.
An FBI investigation was launched on Friday to determine the source of the leak. However, a senior official told the New York Times that tracking down the perpetrator could prove difficult because a large number of officers have the security clearances needed to access the information.