Since February 2022, the Ukraine issue has been reminding the world that the clash of empires is one of the great trends of our time.
Rising tensions over Taiwan point in the same direction.
We know the situation: China is becoming less and less tolerant of the existence of Taiwan.
China
Taiwan wanted to be the last bastion of real China at the time of the communist revolution. Today it is tempted by independence, as if it mourns the loss of the continent and wants to become a nation in its own right.
But mainland China sees it only as a rebel province to be subdued — and even more so as a province serving as a springboard for American interests in the region.
In other words, China wants to assert imperial sovereignty in this corner of the world and drive the United States out of it.
We do not know how the situation will develop. Will China just invade Taiwan? And if that’s the case, how will the United States really respond?
Behind worried speculation we see a new clash of empires forming around the world.
Each claims a sphere of influence that extends beyond its strict national boundaries and will not brook the presence or intrusion of any other empire.
A problem arises: the United States settled around the world in the second half of the 20th century. And resurgent empires no longer tolerate their presence.
Which brings us back to the starting point: the struggle of empires is inscribed in the coming century.
UNITED STATES
Which will likely lead to a redefinition of the major alliances we know.
We will seek less to create a lasting peace than to contain major confrontations, concentrating them on secondary strategic focuses, as in the Cold War days.
Samuel Huntington spoke of the clash of cultures. He was right.
