Among the classified US intelligence documents posted online after the leak and made available to the New York Times, there is one that outlines 4 scenarios – dubbed “wild cards” – that will affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine could.
The document states that the war will likely be protracted. But he describes how any “wildcard” or worst-case scenario could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine or have no significant impact on the course of the war.
The Scenario Document is a fairly typical product created by intelligence agencies. It is designed to help military officers, politicians or legislators reflect on the possible outcomes of major events and evaluate their options.
The document is marked “RELIDO”, indicating that the decision to share the information, for example with foreign partners, rests with certain senior officials.
It is dated February 24 and labeled “One Year,” indicating that the analysis was conducted a year after the invasion began.
These 4 scenarios include the deaths of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the removal of the leadership of the Russian armed forces, and a Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin.
1. Ukraine strikes at the Kremlin
One of four what-if scenarios shows what could happen if Ukraine attacks the Kremlin. A wide range of possible implications is identified.
The attack could lead to an escalation, to which Putin would respond with a full-scale military mobilization and consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Or the fears of the world public could prompt him to negotiate a solution to the war.
A possible attack by Ukraine on Moscow worries the Biden administration precisely because it could provoke a dramatic escalation in Russia.
The dangers of such an attack by Ukraine is one of the reasons why the United States is reluctant to supply long-range missiles to Kiev.
2. Putin removes leadership of Russian armed forces
If Putin fires his top military advisers and escalates the war, the document speculates that he could authorize the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
This situation – again according to the document – could only occur under two conditions. That is, if “the oligarchs question Putin’s decision-making process and Russian military personnel and fail to address the ammunition shortage.” A scenario that therefore currently seems unlikely.
3. Zelenskyy’s death
Third scenario, the disappearance of Zelensky. If the leader of Kiev were to die, the worst that could happen was for European leaders to cut back on arms supplies. But the document shows how a “high-profile Ukrainian leader” could garner support both at home and abroad, he says. So a successor.
Plans to assassinate the President of Ukraine have been discussed several times. According to other leaked documents in the past, Wagner was hired to assassinate the President of Ukraine in the very first days of the invasion.
4. Putin’s death
However, neither the New York Times nor the Associated Press made any statements about Putin’s death.
But according to other documents, the Kremlin bureaucracy and the Russian military leadership worked to sabotage the war in Ukraine while Putin was distracted from a round of chemotherapy to treat his cancer. Rumors about the Moscow leader’s health have plagued for months with confirmations and denials of his alleged troubles.
But Vice, who had access to a document, takes them for granted: “On February 17, we learned of an alleged conspiracy to derail the so-called “military special operation” to sabotage President Putin.
According to a source with access to Kremlin officials, Russia planned to shift resources from Taganrog to Mariupol to focus attention on the southern front.
The plan for the offensive was suspected to be a strategy devised by National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, ostensibly to sabotage Putin. According to the source, the general opposed the offensive. He informed Putin that the Ukrainian military’s capabilities were superior and Russia would suffer heavy casualties if it continued the attack.
On February 22, the source reported that Gerasimov planned to continue his efforts to sabotage the offensive and promised to derail the so-called special military operation by March 5 if Putin was to start chemotherapy and was therefore unable to do so would affect the war.