The US government is very embarrassed leaked military secrets which, among other things, show his lukewarm assessment of the Ukrainian armed forces and explain certain weaknesses of the Russian army.
As if by chance, a shocking video appeared on social networks in the following days, showing the beheading of a Ukrainian soldier by Russian soldiers. A video that dates from the summer of 2022. The Kremlin immediately expresses its horror and orders an investigation into the video.
One message chases the other. The US government is in a hurry to ban the intelligence leak from media headlines, while the Russian leadership is trying to rotate the video of the beheading in their favor to uphold their human values.
warning
This leak of information – assuming it wasn’t orchestrated by the Americans to deceive the Russians – is also a warning to countries close to the United States.
Americans were aware of Egypt’s temptation to sell arms to Russia, despite the financial aid Washington pours into Cairo every year. They also knew that Mossad had facilitated the demonstrations in Israel (information vehemently denied by Mossad) or that South Korea could sell arms to Ukraine through Poland (a false document, say South-South authorities). They saw the failed computer attack by Russian services on Canadian gas plants.
Terrible assumptions
Washington is attempting to pass off the information leak as the work of a mindless American soldier, supporter of the online discussion groups on Armor and God. Perhaps. In fact, other hypotheses, such as the work of hackers, are terrible for the reputation of American intelligence.
What is certain, if this is an American leak, is that the revelations from the United States have increased espionage in the Russian Defense Ministry and in Vladimir Putin’s entourage. Could such a hunt help destabilize Putin?
Conversely, was the Russian army able to take advantage of American intelligence’s weaknesses in Ukraine? Or did the American services want to get the Russians to go one way rather than the other?
On the other hand, if the leak came from Russian agents, was it aimed at weakening American alliances?
Voluntary blur
As we can see, since we are not in the secret of the secret services, it is very easy to speculate at will about the origins, motives and consequences of such leaks.
The deliberate blur surrounding the intelligence agencies amplifies their power.
As an analyst of the international scene, it is impossible not to take into account the recent revelations. But remember that conspiracy theories are almost always wrong and the simplest explanations are often the best.
